Egypt’s Inflation Rate Spikes in March Amid Ukraine War

A woman holding her baby shops at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Cairo, Egypt February 25, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
A woman holding her baby shops at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Cairo, Egypt February 25, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
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Egypt’s Inflation Rate Spikes in March Amid Ukraine War

A woman holding her baby shops at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Cairo, Egypt February 25, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
A woman holding her baby shops at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Cairo, Egypt February 25, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

Egypt said Sunday its annual inflation rate surged past 12% in March, up from 10% in February, largely because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has strained global markets and sent oil prices to record highs.

Data released by the Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics shows price hikes across many sectors, from fuel, electricity and food items to housing, medical services and entertainment.

The figures cover the period from April 1, 2021, to March 30, 2022.

The hikes have inflicted a heavy burden on consumers, especially lower-income households, and particularly for everyday necessities.

According to The Associated Press, figures show that food and beverage prices hiked by 4.5% in March compared to February prices, with price hikes for cereal and bread hitting 11%.

The government announced last month fixed prices for unsubsidized bread for the next three months in an effort to fight the increase.

The accelerating hikes came in the wake of the Central Bank’s decisions to raise its main interest rate and to devalue the local currency against the US dollar to fight inflation.

Justifying its March 21 decisions, the bank citied the war in Ukraine that has shaken the global economy and threatened food supplies and livelihoods of people across the world.

Brent crude, the price basis for international oil trading, was at over $102 per barrel over the weekend after hitting a peak of nearly $140 in March.



Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
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Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

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Oil market momentum was kept in check on Monday as prices fluctuated in and out of negative territory, with traders on edge despite the US pulling back from initial sanctions threats against Colombia, reducing immediate concern over oil supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.14 a barrel by 1200 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.27, down 39 cents, or 0.5%.

Both benchmarks oscillated between moderate gains and losses in early trading.

The US swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after the South American nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States, the White House said late on Sunday, Reuters reported.

Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the US, data from analytics firm Kpler shows.

"Even if the sanctions didn't take place, this still creates nervousness that Trump will bully whoever needs to be bullied to get his way," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

"Fundamentally, the market is surprisingly tight," said Schieldrop, referring to time spreads showing that the price of crude oil for quicker delivery is rising.

Gains were limited by Trump's repeated call on Friday for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia's finances and help to end to the war in Ukraine.

"One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil ... That war will stop right away," Trump said.

Trump has also threatened to hit Russia "and other participating countries" with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he and Trump should meet to talk about the Ukraine war and energy prices.

"They are positioning for negotiations," said John Driscoll at Singapore-based consultancy JTD Energy, adding that this creates volatility in oil markets.

He added that oil markets are probably skewed a little bit to the downside, with Trump looking to boost US output and try to secure overseas markets for US crude.

"He's going to want to muscle into some of the OPEC market share; so in that sense he's kind of a competitor," Driscoll said.

However, OPEC and its allies including Russia have yet to react to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates pointing to a plan already in place to start raising oil output from April.

Both oil benchmarks registered their first weekly decline in five weeks on easing concern last week over potential supply disruptions resulting from the latest sanctions on Russia.

Goldman Sachs analysts said they do not expect a big hit to Russian production because higher freight rates have encouraged non-sanctioned ships to move Russian oil while the deepening discount on the affected Russian ESPO grade attracts price-sensitive buyers.

Still, JP Morgan analysts said some risk premium is justified given that nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions.

"The application of sanctions on the Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate," they added in a note.

Elsewhere, Chinese manufacturing data on Monday was weaker than expected, adding fresh concerns over energy demand.