Turkey Prepares to Expand Safe Zones in Syria Despite US Warnings

A US soldier during a patrol in the countryside of Qamishli (File photo: AFP)
A US soldier during a patrol in the countryside of Qamishli (File photo: AFP)
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Turkey Prepares to Expand Safe Zones in Syria Despite US Warnings

A US soldier during a patrol in the countryside of Qamishli (File photo: AFP)
A US soldier during a patrol in the countryside of Qamishli (File photo: AFP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent statement led to a dispute with the US concerning the safe zones in Syria.

Erdogan on Monday said Ankara would soon launch new military operations along its southern borders to create safe zones 30 km (20 miles) deep to combat what he characterized as terrorist threats from these regions.

Erdogan has said the National Security Council would make decisions on military operations at its Thursday meeting.

Recent reports stated that Turkish armed forces and the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army might be targeting Tal Rifaat, Ayn al-Arab (Kobani), Ain Issa, and Manbij.

Turkish sources said that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with the US on October 17, 2019, has not been implemented. It addresses the withdrawal of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the largest component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), to 30 km from the southern Turkish border.

The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the MoU was signed to stop the military operation "Peace Spring," which Turkey launched on October 9, 2019, in the SDF-controlled areas east of the Euphrates.

They explained that the withdrawal process was scheduled within five days, but it never happened.

Earlier, the United States warned of any new attack in northern Syria, saying it would undermine stability in the region and endanger its forces.

"We are deeply concerned about reports and discussions of potential increased military activity in northern Syria, and in particular, its impact on the civilian population there," State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Tuesday.

"We recognize Turkey's legitimate security concerns on Turkey's southern border, but any new offensive would further undermine regional stability and put at risk US forces and the coalition's campaign against ISIS," he said.

Washington was expecting Ankara to live up to an October 2019 joint statement, including a halt in offensive operations in northeastern Syria, Price said.

"We condemn any escalation. We support the maintenance of the current ceasefire lines."

Meanwhile, the Syrian Foreign Ministry sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General and the Security Council describing Turkey's actions as illegitimate.

"They amount to what can be described as war crimes and crimes against humanity," it said in a statement carried by the state news agency.

Turkey objects to Finland and Sweden's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) over their alleged support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the YPG, two groups that Ankara classifies as terrorist organizations.

Observers considered that Erdogan's sudden announcement reflects his belief that the West will not oppose such operations because they need Turkey's support for the two European countries' bid to join NATO.

They pointed out that the Turkish army's movement against the YPG in Syria, Washington's closest ally in the war against ISIS, has always been possible despite the relative calm along the border.

Observers considered that Erdogan is seeking to seize the opportunity to achieve his long-standing goal of establishing a zone free of Kurdish militants along the Turkish border with Syria.

Possible targets of the Turkish operation

The pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper said preparations had been made for a new operation to expand "safe zones" already set up in northern Syria, with several goals identified.

Turkish control of the towns, which lie on or close to a central stretch of the 911-km-long border with Syria, could extend and deepen its military presence near the Mediterranean coast along nearly three-quarters of the frontier.

YPG spokesman Nuri Mahmoud told Reuters the group took Erdogan's threats very seriously: "The international coalition, America, and Russia should commit to the pledges they made to this region. Their presence in our areas must be meaningful, in the sense that it stops the repeated attacks on our people."

The Yeni Safak newspaper said the most critical target of the latest operation would be Tal Rifaat, which it said Kurdish fighters used as a base to launch attacks in the Afrin, Azaz, and Jarablus areas controlled by Turkey and Ankara-backed Syrian fighters.

Analyst on Syria at the International Crisis Group Dareen Khalifa said it was unclear whether Erdogan was talking about an operation in Tal Rifaat or further east, but she highlighted the town's role.

She said Russia had not been addressing his concerns on militant attacks on Turkish-controlled areas from Tal Rifaat and that Erdogan has been saying for years that Tal Rifaat needs to be captured.

According to a Reuters report, the predominantly Kurdish town of Kobani may be another potential target.

The YPG's defeat of ISIS militants there in 2015 helped turn the tide against the group.

"Kobani represents the value of a global victory in the war against terrorism," a YPG spokesman said.

Mahmoud asserted that "there's no doubt that our forces will do what is needed to defend" the area.

However, Khalifa played down the prospects of Turkey targeting Kobani.

"I don't think there's any interest in getting stuck in Kobani," she said, pointing to the significant demographic changes and reaction if the Kurdish population fled.

She said that while US forces were not in Manbij physically, it is a US zone of influence, so "I expect it also to trigger a US reaction."



Iraq Preoccupied with Potential Broad Israeli Attack

Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)
Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)
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Iraq Preoccupied with Potential Broad Israeli Attack

Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)
Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)

Baghdad has been preoccupied this week with serious possibilities that Israel may expand its war on Gaza and Lebanon by striking several targets in Iraq in retaliation to attacks by Iran-backed armed factions.

Concern has been high that Israel may attack government buildings, oil fields and strategic locations, not just the positions of the armed factions that have previously launched attacks against Israel, said sources close to the pro-Iran ruling Coordination Framework.

Media sources have spoken of government speculation that Iraq could come under “300 Israeli attacks”.

The fears in Iraq have been compounded by an Israeli complaint to the United Nations Security Council against seven armed factions and holding Baghdad responsible for the attacks they have carried out against it.

This prompted the government, through the foreign ministry, to send an official letter to the Security Council, UN Secretary-General, Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation in response to the Israeli threats.

The ministry said on Saturday that Iraq is “the cornerstone of stability in the region and world and it is one of the countries that are most committed to the UN Charter.”

“The Zionist entity’s letter to the Security Council is part of a systematic policy aimed at creating claims and excuses in an attempt to expand the conflict in the region.”

It said Iraq has turned to the Security Council out of Iraq’s keenness on the international body carrying out its duty in maintaining international peace and security and the need to rein in the “Zionist aggression in Gaza and Lebanon.”

Moreover, it stressed that Iraq has been keen on exercising restraint when it comes to the use of its airspace to attack a neighboring country.

Israel has used Iraqi airspace to launch attacks against Iran in October.

Iraq underscored the importance of the international community stepping in to “stop this hostile behavior that is a flagrant violation of international law.”

It called for international efforts to stop the Israeli escalation in the region and ensure that international laws and treaties are respected to consolidate security and stability.

Meanwhile, a source close to the Coordination Framework said the main Shiite parties are taking the Israeli threats “very seriously”, urging Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government to take “all the necessary measures to avert a potential Israeli strike.”

All leaders of armed factions, as well as Shiite leaders, have taken up alternative locations and are moving under great secrecy, confirming that they have changed the majority of their military positions, said the source.

It also dismissed claims that Israeli jets have overflown Iraq, saying nothing has been confirmed, but not ruling out the possibility, especially since US forces have control over Iraqi skies and Iraq is helpless against stopping these violations.

Iraq had submitted a formal complaint to the UN and Security Council over Israel’s use and violation of its airspace to attack Iran.

Analyst and former diplomat Ghazi Faisal said the pro-Iran armed factions have been gathering their forces in the Sinjar province, which is strategic for Iran’s arms deliveries and logistic support to Syria where attacks can be carried out against American forces and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Sinjar is one of the most important strategic bases for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, he added.

Furthermore, he noted that the armed factions insist on continuing the war against Israel, rejecting government calls for calm and neutrality.

The government’s statements are aimed at delivering a message that it “is not directly responsible for the strategy of these factions,” which follow Iran’s policies.

Iraq has repeatedly said that it refuses for its territory to be used to attack another country, but some observers believe that it may allow Iran to do so should Israel strike.