Turkey Projects 7% Growth for Q1 2022

Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati says annual growth will be around seven percent in the first quarter of 2022 (DPA)
Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati says annual growth will be around seven percent in the first quarter of 2022 (DPA)
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Turkey Projects 7% Growth for Q1 2022

Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati says annual growth will be around seven percent in the first quarter of 2022 (DPA)
Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati says annual growth will be around seven percent in the first quarter of 2022 (DPA)

The Turkish economy's solid and balanced growth trend and the pioneering data point out that annual growth will be around seven percent in the first quarter of 2022, Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati said Monday.

Speaking at the General Assembly of the Banks Association of Turkey (TBB), Nebati said the strong structure of the banking sector has a system that is very resistant to shocks, noting the annual inflation rate rose to 70 percent last April and is expected to remain high until the end of the year.

Last week, the Turkish Central Bank kept the key interest rate for the fifth consecutive month at 14 percent, arguing that inflation was driven by geopolitical developments and the "temporary effects of pricing formations."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes high interest rates caused inflation and forced the Central Bank to cut the key interest rate from 19 to 14 percent between September and December, leading to a currency collapse.

The Turkish lira exchange rate fell 44 percent of its value against the dollar in 2021 and lost 23 percent against the dollar since the first of last January, despite the repeated interventions of the Central Bank.

The Turkish lira fell to its lowest levels since the crisis last December, while analysts questioned the ability of the authorities to keep it stable without new sources of foreign currency.

Recent data showed that the net international reserves of the Central Bank fell about $3.5 billion to $11.53 billion in the week ending May 13. Bankers estimated it fell to $10 billion or less in the following week.

The central bank justified its decision by saying inflation will start to fall with price and financial stability measures taken, and once "global peace" is restored, and base effects cease.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) announced that the economic confidence index rebounded in May after a three-month decline.

The index rose to 96.7 in April, a gain of 2.1 percent from the previous month, driven by the increases in consumer, services, and retail trade confidence indices,

On a monthly basis, the consumer confidence index increased by 0.4 percent to 67.6, the services confidence index rose by 6.1 percent to 121.7, and the retail trade confidence index increased by 1.7 percent to 121.4 in May, compared to the previous month.

However, the real sector manufacturing industry confidence index decreased by 0.7 percent to 107.0, and the construction confidence index declined by 2.2 percent to 81.6 in May from the month before.



Trump Hits More Countries with Steep Tariffs, Markets Dive

A US flag flutters near shipping containers as a ship is unloaded at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro, California, US, May 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake/ File Photo
A US flag flutters near shipping containers as a ship is unloaded at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro, California, US, May 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake/ File Photo
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Trump Hits More Countries with Steep Tariffs, Markets Dive

A US flag flutters near shipping containers as a ship is unloaded at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro, California, US, May 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake/ File Photo
A US flag flutters near shipping containers as a ship is unloaded at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro, California, US, May 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake/ File Photo

US President Donald Trump's latest wave of tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners sent global stock markets tumbling on Friday and countries and companies scrambling to seek ways to strike better deals.

As Trump presses ahead with plans to reorder the global economy with the highest tariff rates since the early 1930s, Switzerland, "stunned" by 39% tariffs, sought more talks, as did India, hit with a 25% rate.

New tariffs also include a 35% duty on many goods from Canada, 50% for Brazil, 20% for Taiwan. Taiwan said its rate was "temporary" and it expected to reach a lower figure.

The presidential order listed higher import duty rates of 10% to 41% starting in a week's time for 69 trading partners, taking the US effective tariff rate to about 18%, from 2.3% last year, according to analysts at Capital Economics.

Global shares stumbled, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 1.8% on the day and 2.5% on the week, on track for its biggest weekly drop since Trump announced his first major wave of tariffs on April 2. Wall Street also opened sharply lower on Friday.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.5%, bringing the total loss this week to roughly 2.7%. In commodity markets, oil prices continued to fall after a 1% plunge on Thursday.

Trump's new tariffs have created yet more uncertainty, with many details unclear. They are set to take effect on Aug 7 at 0401 GMT, a White House official said.

The European Union, which struck a framework deal with Trump on Sunday, is still awaiting more Trump orders to deliver on agreed carve-outs, including on cars and aircraft, EU officials said, saying the latest executive orders did not cover that.

Also, it is unclear how the administration intends to define and police the transshipment restrictions, which threaten 40% levies on any exporter deemed to have tried to mask goods from a higher-tariffed originator, such as China, as their own product.

The new tariffs will kick in at what has become a perilous moment for the US economy, with US data on Friday showing employment growth was weaker than thought previously.

Trump's tariff rollout also comes amid evidence they have begun driving up prices.

US Commerce Department data released Thursday showed prices for home furnishings and durable household equipment jumped 1.3% in June, the biggest gain since March 2022.

Countries hit with hefty tariffs said they will seek to negotiate with the US in hopes of getting a lower rate.

Switzerland said it would push for a "negotiated solution" with the US.

"It’s a massive shock for the export industry and for the whole country. We are really stunned," said Jean-Philippe Kohl, deputy director of Swissmem, representing Switzerland's mechanical and electrical engineering industries.

South Africa's Trade Minister Parks Tau said he was seeking "real, practical interventions" to defend jobs and the economy against the 30% US tariff it faces.

Southeast Asian countries, however, breathed a sigh of relief after the US tariffs on their exports that were lower than threatened and levelled the playing field with a rate of about 19% across the region's biggest economies.

Thailand's finance minister said a reduction from 36% to 19% would help his country's economy.

"It helps maintain Thailand's competitiveness on the global stage, boosts investor confidence and opens the door to economic growth, increased income and new opportunities," Pichai Chunhavajira said.

Australian products could become more competitive in the US market, helping businesses boost exports, Trade Minister Don Farrell said, after Trump kept the minimum tariff rate of 10% for Australia.

But businesses and analysts said the impact of Trump's new trade regime would not be positive for economic growth.

"No real winners in trade conflicts," said Thomas Rupf, co-head Singapore and CIO Asia at VP Bank. "Despite some countries securing better terms, the overall impact is negative."

"The tariffs hurt the Americans and they hurt us," winemaker Johannes Selbach said in Germany's Moselle Valley, adding jobs and profits on both sides of the Atlantic would be hit.

L'Oreal and a growing number of European fashion and cosmetics companies are exploring use of an obscure, decades-old US customs clause known as the "First Sale" rule as a potential way to soften the impact of the tariffs.

The "First Sale" rule allows companies to pay lower duties by applying tariffs to the value of a product as it leaves the factory - much lower than the eventual retail price.

CANADA, INDIA

Trump has tapped emergency powers, pressured foreign leaders, and pressed ahead with trade policies that sparked a market sell-off when they were first announced in April.

His order said some trading partners, "despite having engaged in negotiations, have offered terms that, in my judgment, do not sufficiently address imbalances in our trading relationship or have failed to align sufficiently with the United States on economic and national-security matters."

Trump issued a separate order for Canada that raises the rate on Canadian goods subject to fentanyl-related tariffs to 35%, from 25% previously, saying Canada had "failed to cooperate" in curbing illicit narcotics flows into the US.

The higher tariffs on Canadian goods contrasted sharply with Trump's decision to grant Mexico a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs of 30% on many goods to allow time to negotiate a broader trade pact.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was disappointed by Trump's decision, and vowed to take action to protect Canadian jobs and diversify exports.

India is in trade talks with the US after Washington imposed a 25% tariff on New Delhi, a move that could impact about $40 billion worth of its exports, an Indian government source with knowledge of the talks told Reuters on Friday.