Oil Price Rises Even as OPEC Boosts Output More than Expected

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
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Oil Price Rises Even as OPEC Boosts Output More than Expected

Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo
Oil drills are pictured in the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Jonathan Alcorn/File Photo

Oil prices rose Thursday despite an agreement by major crude producers to boost output more than expected, while US stocks rallied ahead of closely-watched employment data seen as a key input to the inflation debate.

In Vienna, the OPEC+ group decided to add 648,000 barrels per day to the market in July, up from the 432,000 bpd increases in recent months, and a shift from the cartel's recent stance of sticking to a planned pace of monthly production hikes, said AFP.

"The meeting highlighted the importance of stable and balanced markets for both crude oil and refined products," the group said of the move.

The announcement came after European Union leaders agreed to ban more than two-thirds of Russian oil imports as part of a sixth package of sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine war.

But the action by producers did not appear to be enough to calm oil markets, with futures contracts rising more than one percent.

The jump in prices reflects "doubts the cartel members can deliver on their promises," TD Securities' Bart Melek said in a note.

He who warned that oil prices could spike "well above" $120 a barrel in the peak summer period amid tight inventories, geopolitical risk and uncertainty over OPEC.

Meanwhile, Wall Street stocks pushed higher after two down sessions in which worries over inflation stymied buying.

Payroll services firm ADP said private US employment rose by 128,000 positions last month, far less than economists expected and well below April's total.

While the ADP data is not necessarily a harbinger of Friday's government jobs data, some market watchers think a Labor Department report showing weakening hiring and less wage pressure might be welcomed by investors.

"Some traders expect to see cooler labor demand, which could slightly ease some inflation worries," Oanda's Edward Moya said.

European shares also closed higher, with Paris leading the way at 1.3 percent and Frankfurt rising 1.0 percent. London's FTSE 100 was shut for a holiday.

Equities fell in Asia as traders grew increasingly worried that central bank moves to rein in inflation could tip economies into recession.

Hong Kong shed one percent, while Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Manila, Jakarta and Taipei were well down. Shanghai and Mumbai edged up.

Large tech companies had a banner session on Wall Street, with Amazon and Google-parent Alphabet each winning 3.2 percent, while Netflix jumped 6.3 percent.

Dow-member Microsoft fell short of those levels but still gained 0.8 percent, despite lowering its profit and sales outlook due to the hit from the strong dollar.

Boeing was another standout, jumping 7.5 percent after the head of Delta Air Lines said the carrier was hoping for a deal to buy planes from the aviation giant.

- Key figures at around 2040 GMT -
Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.1 percent at $117.61 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.4 percent at $116.87 per barrel

New York - Dow: UP 1.3 percent at 33,248.28 (close)

New York - S&P 500: UP 1.8 percent at 4,176.82 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: UP 2.7 percent at 12,316.90 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: UP 1.0 percent at 14,485.17 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: UP 1.3 percent at 6,500.44 (close)

London - FTSE 100: Closed for a holiday

EURO STOXX 50: UP 1.0 percent at 3,795.13 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.2 percent at 21,413.88 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.0 percent at 21,082.13 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.4 percent at 3,195.46 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0753 from $1.0650 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2568 from $1.2487

Euro/pound: UP at 85.49 pence from 85.28 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 129.85 yen from 130.13 yen



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.