UAE Central Bank Expects Real GDP Growth to Reach 4.2% in 2023

UAE Central Bank Expects Real GDP Growth to Reach 4.2% in 2023
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UAE Central Bank Expects Real GDP Growth to Reach 4.2% in 2023

UAE Central Bank Expects Real GDP Growth to Reach 4.2% in 2023

The United Arab Emirates' central bank said on Wednesday it expects real GDP growth to reach 4.2 percent next year, up from its earlier forecast of 3.3 percent.

The central bank estimated the non-oil GDP growth to reach 3.9 percent in 2023 compared with previous estimates of 3.3 percent, while the oil GDP growth to reach five percent in 2023 compared with earlier estimates of 3.4 percent.

The bank had projected real GDP growth to reach 5.4 percent in 2022 after the growth jumped to 3.8 percent in 2021.

According to the estimates of the central bank, the non-oil GDP growth rose 5.3 percent in 2021, and is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2022 in light of sustainable government spending, a positive outlook for loan growth, and the improvement in business sentiment.

The oil GDP growth is anticipated to grow 8 percent in 2022, due to the expected recovery in global demand, as well as the recovery of the transport and travel sector, and production increase of OPEC member countries.

On the other hand, the bank’s statistics showed that credit facilities granted by national banks to the business and industry sectors in the country rose by 2.6 billion dirhams ($707 million) in two months.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.