IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF: Overall Saudi GDP Projected to Grow 7.6%

IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)
IMF confirms that Saudi Arabia mitigated the economic risks resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted solid indicators for the Saudi economy, expecting a 7.6 percent overall GDP growth in 2022.

Non-oil growth will increase to 4.2 percent in 2022, with the current account surplus will increase to 17.4 percent of GDP in 2022, said the Fund experts.

An IMF mission conducted discussions for the 2022 Article IV Consultation from May 23-June 6 and issued a concluding statement describing their preliminary findings.

The experts emphasized the strength of the Saudi economy and its financial position, explaining that the country's economic prospects have a positive outlook in the short and medium term.

"The near and medium-term outlook for Saudi Arabia is positive as growth is picking up, inflation will remain contained, and the external position will strengthen further."

The Fund indicated that the Kingdom managed the COVID-19 pandemic well and is well-positioned to weather the risks posed by the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening cycle in advanced economies.

"Economic activity is picking up strongly, supported by a higher oil price and the reforms unleashed under Vision 2030," read the statement.

Saudi authorities' commitment to fiscal discipline should help further strengthen fiscal and external sustainability and avoid procyclicality while implementing the ambitious structural reform agenda will help ensure a durable, inclusive, and green recovery.

"Saudi Arabia is recovering strongly following a deep pandemic-induced recession."

The report also explained that the overall growth was robust at 3.2 percent in 2021, driven by recovering non-oil manufacturing, retail, e-commerce, and the trade sector.

The Fund pointed out that with increased labor force participation of nationals offsetting expatriates' departures, the unemployment rate has fallen further to 11 percent, a 1.6 percent drop from 2020, mainly owing to higher employment for Saudi nationals, particularly women, in the private sector.

The statement said that financial stability risks are well contained, and the banking system is profitable, liquid, and well-capitalized.

The staff's preliminary analysis found that the impact on credit growth and non-oil GDP is negligible and positive for the banking sector profitability when oil prices and liquidity are high.

They touched on the Kingdom's efforts concerning climate policies, stressing that the government is working to intensify investments in blue and green hydrogen production and is undertaking research and development focusing on the circular carbon economy.

They confirmed the strength of the Kingdom's economy and the power of its financial position, reflected in the great effort made by the government to promote its economic reforms in light of Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia works on various projects in different sectors, including infrastructure, logistics, entertainment, tourism, and mining.

"The mission welcomes the Kingdom's commitment to fiscal sustainability and efforts to avoid procyclicality by setting a spending ceiling that would be delinked from oil price fluctuations."



US Applications for Jobless Claims Fall to 201,000, Lowest Level in Nearly a Year

A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)
A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)
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US Applications for Jobless Claims Fall to 201,000, Lowest Level in Nearly a Year

A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)
A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

US applications for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level in nearly a year last week, pointing to a still healthy labor market with historically low layoffs.

The Labor Department on Wednesday said that applications for jobless benefits fell to 201,000 for the week ending January 4, down from the previous week's 211,000. This week's figure is the lowest since February of last year.

The four-week average of claims, which evens out the week-to-week ups and downs, fell by 10,250 to 213,000.

The overall numbers receiving unemployment benefits for the week of December 28 rose to 1.87 million, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week, according to The AP.

The US job market has cooled from the red-hot stretch of 2021-2023 when the economy was rebounding from COVID-19 lockdowns.

Through November, employers added an average of 180,000 jobs a month in 2024, down from 251,000 in 2023, 377,000 in 2022 and a record 604,000 in 2021. Still, even the diminished job creation is solid and a sign of resilience in the face of high interest rates.

When the Labor Department releases hiring numbers for December on Friday, they’re expected to show that employers added 160,000 jobs last month.

On Tuesday, the government reported that US job openings rose unexpectedly in November, showing companies are still looking for workers even as the labor market has loosened. Openings rose to 8.1 million in November, the most since February and up from 7.8 million in October,

The weekly jobless claims numbers are a proxy for layoffs, and those have remained below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate is at a modest 4.2%, though that is up from a half century low 3.4% reached in 2023.

To fight inflation that hit four-decade highs two and a half years ago, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023. Inflation came down — from 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.7% in November, allowing the Fed to start cutting rates. But progress on inflation has stalled in recent months, and year-over-year consumer price increases are stuck above the Fed’s 2% target.

In December, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time in 2024, but the central bank’s policymakers signaled that they’re likely to be more cautious about future rate cuts. They projected just two in 2025, down from the four they had envisioned in September.