Asian Markets' Rally Fizzles as Rates, Inflation Fears Return

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
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Asian Markets' Rally Fizzles as Rates, Inflation Fears Return

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP

Asian markets mostly fell Tuesday as investors struggled to maintain a recent rally while weighing central banks' inflation-fighting rate hikes and the possibility of a recession.

Renewed concerns about thinning supplies and rising demand also helped push oil even higher, after enjoying a big bounce Monday, said AFP.

Shares rallied last week as the prospect of a contraction saw traders lower their bets on how long finance chiefs will tighten monetary policy, with some commentators eyeing possible cuts at the back end of 2023.

But the global advance fizzled Monday in New York, and on Tuesday, Asian investors ran out of puff.

Meanwhile, analysts said there was a worry on trading floors that the upcoming earnings season could see a lot of firms lower their forecasts for the year ahead.

"There is a clear lack of conviction by investors, with light trading volumes favoring the notion of an exhausted market with big declines set to be recorded this quarter, notwithstanding the outsized gains logged last week," said National Australia Bank's Rodrigo Catril.

Hong Kong was among the big losers, with tech firms reversing the previous day's surge, while there were also losses in Shanghai, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington.

Sydney and Manila bucked the trend.

Another pledge by the central People's Bank of China to provide support to the world's number two economy had little impact on sentiment.

Still, some commentators remain relatively upbeat as the second half of the year approaches.

Market strategist Louis Navelier said in a note: "While it's sobering that the first half of the year is the worst since 1970, history also says that when the first half of the year is down at least 15 percent the second half of the year is up every single time with an average return of 24 percent."

And Ben Laidler, a global markets strategist at eToro, added that a lot of the expected economic weakness had been largely factored in by dealers.

"Much is already discounted by markets, which may be in 'bad news is good news' mode, as a slowdown cools inflation and interest rate fears," he said.

"A 'less bad' gradual easing of inflation risks is possible, as is a slowdown -- not recession -- driving a 'U-shaped' rebound. The focus for investors is on cheap and defensive assets while managing rising risks."

Oil prices jumped, building on a rally that has seen Brent and WTI pile on more than eight percent since Wednesday. Both main contracts had fallen heavily earlier in the month on recession worries.

The gains have come on the back of a pick-up in demand from China as it gradually emerges from lockdowns, while supply fears have been raised by political crises in producers Libya and Ecuador.

- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.2 percent at 26,830.69 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.8 percent at 22,046.66

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,366.48

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.1 percent at $110.72 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.1 percent at $116.39 per barrel

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 135.25 yen from 135.48 yen on Monday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0575 from $1.0583

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2263 from $1.2268

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.22 pence from 86.24 pence

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 31,438.26 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 7,258.32 (close)



Türkiye Cenbank Holds Rates at 50% Citing Last Big Hike

A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo
A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo
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Türkiye Cenbank Holds Rates at 50% Citing Last Big Hike

A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo
A logo of Türkiye's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan/File Photo

Türkiye's central bank kept its main interest rate steady at 50% on Thursday as expected, citing a big tightening in financial conditions since its last hike, and again pledged to tighten policy more if needed in its campaign to cool inflation.

Analysts said the central bank has likely ended its aggressive, nearly year-long tightening cycle.
Last month, it unexpectedly raised its one-week repo rate by 500 basis points, citing a deteriorating inflation outlook and pledging to keep a tight monetary stance.

The annual inflation rate climbed to 68.5% in March and is expected to rise for another few months before easing. The central bank has forecast it will dip to 36% by year-end, a bit lower than market expectations.

"The monetary policy decisions in March have led to a significant tightening in financial conditions," Reuters quoted the bank's policy committee as saying.

"Considering the lagged effects of the monetary tightening, the Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged, but reiterated that it remains highly attentive to inflation risks."

It also reiterated it would tighten again if a "significant and persistent" deterioration in inflation is foreseen, and would maintain a tight stance until a "significant and sustained" drop in underlying trend inflation is seen.

The lira was unchanged at 32.5170 against the dollar after the announcement.

Rate hikes are "on hold once again, with no changes to the rate likely until the fourth quarter 2024", Andrew Birch, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a note.

Reuters polling shows the bank was expected to hold rates this week and to leave it at 50% until the fourth quarter when cuts are to begin. Only two of 14 respondents expected a hike.

POLICY U-TURN
A years-long cost-of-living crisis for Turks is expected to begin easing in the second half of the year due to the monetary tightening cycle, which began in June last year with a U-turn toward a more orthodox economic program.
Rates have risen from 8.5% in the cycle, which reversed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's previous policy of low rates and credit-fueled growth that sparked a series of currency crashes and sent inflation soaring in recent years.

Last month's rate hike came just ahead of nationwide local elections in which Erdogan's ruling AK Party suffered big losses, with voters primarily attributing their discontent to cost-of-living concerns.
The central bank had held rates steady in February.

Separately, the bank said on Thursday it raised interest rates on required reserves involving lira and FX-protected lira deposits, in order to support a transition to lira deposits.


Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices steadied on Thursday after settling lower in the previous day, as signs of retreating fuel demand in the US, the world's biggest oil user, contended with widening conflict risks in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures inched up 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.20 a barrel at 0630 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.94 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that gasoline stockpiles fell less than forecast while distillate stockpiles rose against expectations of a decline, reflecting signs of slowing demand.

The falling fuel demand is occurring amid signs of cooling US business activity in April and as stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data means the US Federal Reserve is more likely to delay expected interest rate cuts, weighing on economic sentiment.

"The current weakness in benchmark prices, after testing above $90 (a barrel) levels, is due to market sentiment refocusing on global economic headwinds over geopolitical tensions," said Emril Jamil, senior oil analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Geopolitics aside, prices this quarter will be driven by factors including major producer supply cuts, economic data out of China and Eurozone, on top of incremental demand expectations as the Northern Hemisphere heads into summer amid expected tighter supply, said Jamil.

A better indication of the Fed's rate intentions will be seen after US gross domestic product and March personal consumption expenditure data is released on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is expected to expand as Israel may start an assault on Rafah, in the enclave's south, which may increase the risk of a wider war that could potentially disrupt oil supplies.
However, there have been no other signs of direct conflict between Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, a major oil producer, since last week.
"Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, but Israeli attacks on Gaza are expected to worsen, and the risk of conflicts spreading to neighboring countries is underpinning oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
Other EIA data on Wednesday showed that crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise.


IMF Opens Regional Office in Riyadh to Strengthen Partnership with Middle Eastern Countries

The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF Opens Regional Office in Riyadh to Strengthen Partnership with Middle Eastern Countries

The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning speaks at the conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has inaugurated its regional office in Riyadh with the aim to strengthen partnership with countries in the Middle East and beyond, engage with regional institutions, and improve relations with governments in countries of the region.

In October 2022, Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan, signed with the Fund’s Director General, Kristalina Georgieva, a memorandum of understanding to establish a regional IMF office in the Kingdom.

Wednesday’s inauguration came during the launch of a conference organized by the IMF, in cooperation with the Finance Ministry, under the title, “Industrial Policy to Promote Economic Diversification,” in the presence of Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim.

A statement issued by the IMF said that the new office “will scale up capacity building, regional surveillance, and outreach to promote stability, growth, and regional integration. It will strengthen the IMF’s engagement with regional institutions, governments, and other stakeholders.”

“The IMF is grateful for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s financial contribution to boost capacity development to IMF members—including fragile states,” it added.

According to the IMF, the first director of the regional office will be Abdoul Aziz Wane, from Senegal, who is “a seasoned IMF leader with deep knowledge of the institution and a vast network of policymakers and academics across the world.”

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the opening of a regional office for the IMF in Saudi Arabia is evidence of the international institution’s recognition of the strength of the Saudi economy on the one hand, and of the position it enjoys regionally and internationally.

Addressing the conference on Wednesday, Al-Ibrahim said Saudi Arabia will witness a shift in economic diversification, pointing to a need to encourage openness to local and global competition in order to ensure that the country’s industry is able to flourish deservedly and as quickly as possible.

Since the launch of an integrated program within Saudi Vision 2030 to reduce dependence on oil and diversify other sources of income, the Kingdom has witnessed fundamental changes in the legislative and political system that have led to transforming the business environment, creating new sectors, and building huge projects such as NEOM and the Red Sea, the minister underlined.

To promote sustainable development in local industries, Al-Ibrahim stated that the focus remains on stimulating local and international competitiveness. He stressed that this exposure to the international market encourages companies to continuously improve and innovate to maintain their competitive advantage.

The IMF conference is held over two days, and aims to review the basic principles of industrial policy and draw lessons from its successes and failures in other regions.


Saudi Trade Balance Records Monthly Surplus of 13% in February

General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo
General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo
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Saudi Trade Balance Records Monthly Surplus of 13% in February

General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo
General view of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Reuters file photo

Data from the Saudi General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) showed that the trade balance surplus rose by 13 percent, in February, to SAR32 billion ($8.5 billion), compared to SAR28 billion ($7.4 billion) in January, but registered a decrease of 21.8 percent, on an annual basis.

In its monthly International Trade Bulletin, GASTAT said the Kingdom’s merchandise exports declined by 2 percent on an annual basis to SAR95 billion ($25 billion) in February, affected by a drop in oil exports by 3.8 percent.

According to the data, non-oil exports, which include re-exports, rose by 4.4 percent during February, on an annual basis, to SAR21.8 billion ($5.8 billion). In contrast, Saudi imports increased by 12.3 percent on an annual basis during February to SAR63 billion ($16.7 billion).

China ranked first among Saudi export destinations with a rate of 13.2 percent, followed by Japan and India. China also topped the list of suppliers to the Kingdom with a rate of 19.9 percent, followed by the United States and India with rates of 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively.


Saudi Communications, Tech Market Valued at $44 Billion in 2023

The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)
The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)
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Saudi Communications, Tech Market Valued at $44 Billion in 2023

The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)
The Saudi Communications, Space and Technology Commission building in Riyadh (the Commission’s website)

The size of the communications and technology market in Saudi Arabia reached SAR166 billion ($44.2 billion) during 2023, which is equivalent to a compound annual growth of 8 percent over the past six years.

This was revealed by the Communications, Space and Technology Commission on Wednesday during the 10th edition of the ICT Indicators Forum in Riyadh in the presence of an elite group of experts, specialists and sector leaders.

The event featured four main presentations, and a discussion session on the sector’s future trends. Mufarreh Nahari, the Director General of Studies at the Commission, talked about the performance indicators of the communications and technology sector, noting that the Kingdom ranks second among the G20 countries in the 2023 Communications and Technology Development Index.

Indicators also show that the rate of access to mobile communications service subscriptions has reached 198 percent of the population, while the Internet of Things subscriptions amounted to 12.6 million subscriptions.

Another presentation entitled, “Navigating the Frontiers of Innovation: Information Technology Market Trends in the Kingdom,” featured discussions by Hamza Naqshbandi, Vice President of IDC for Custom Solutions in the Middle East, Türkiye and Africa and Regional Director in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and Group Vice President and Director Jyoti Lalchandani, Regional General Manager for the Middle East, Türkiye and Africa at IDC.

The presentation highlighted the Kingdom’s latest innovative technologies, as spending on technology is expected to reach $18.4 billion in 2024.

A session on “The Future of the Technical Scene in the Kingdom,” examined the future horizon through the insights of market experts, with the participation of Salman Faqih, CEO of Cisco in Saudi Arabia, Fahd Al-Turaif, Vice President of the Cloud Computing Sector for the Saudi, Middle East, and North Africa Markets at Oracle and Othman Al-Hokail, partner at Merak Capital.

The forum also reviewed the “Financial Performance of the Sector in Numbers,” presented by Jassim Al-Jubran, Head of Research Department at Aljazira Capital.

Al-Jubran explained that the size of the assets of companies listed in the communications and technology sector amounts to about SAR250 billion ($66.6 billion), noting that the Kingdom’s market constituted about 37 percent of the total assets in the sector in the Gulf region.


UAE, Kenya Sign Investment MoU on Mining, Technology Sectors

The UAE and Kenya signed a memorandum of understanding, setting the stage for investment collaboration in mining and technology sectors. WAM
The UAE and Kenya signed a memorandum of understanding, setting the stage for investment collaboration in mining and technology sectors. WAM
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UAE, Kenya Sign Investment MoU on Mining, Technology Sectors

The UAE and Kenya signed a memorandum of understanding, setting the stage for investment collaboration in mining and technology sectors. WAM
The UAE and Kenya signed a memorandum of understanding, setting the stage for investment collaboration in mining and technology sectors. WAM

UAE’s Ministry of Investment and the Kenyan Ministry of Finance and National Treasury have signed a memorandum of understanding, setting the stage for collaboration in mining and technology sectors, Emirates News Agency (WAM) reported.

The Abu Dhabi-based investment and holding company, ADQ, also announced on Wednesday a finance framework agreement with Kenya’s ministry, facilitating investments in priority sectors of the Kenyan economy, with a potential investment sum of up to $500 million, WAM said.

Kenya’s mining sector boasts significant growth potential owing to its abundant reserves of gold, copper, ilmenite, tantalum, and various non-metallic minerals.

The MoU focuses on mineral exploration, mine development, mineral processing, refining, and mineral marketing in Kenya. One of the key objectives is to explore opportunities for technology transfer in Kenya’s mineral sector, that would support innovation and growth. The two countries will also assess avenues for collaboration in promoting responsible stewardship of the mineral sector, with a strong emphasis on environmental, social, and governance practices, in addition to exploring avenues for collaboration in research and development within the designated sectors.

Minister of Investment of the UAE Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi said: “Through this partnership, we are laying down the foundation for a future where sustainable mining practices, innovation, and responsible stewardship form the pillars of our mutual growth.”

“We are committed to leveraging technology to enhance capacities and establish robust governance practices that will not only propel the mineral sector but also ensure overall prosperity of our nations.”


Bahrain's Investcorp Sets Up $1 Bln Fund with China's CIC

Bahrain-based Investcorp said CIC's commitment "comes at a time when the GCC's appeal to institutional investors is gathering pace.” Asharq Al-Awsat
Bahrain-based Investcorp said CIC's commitment "comes at a time when the GCC's appeal to institutional investors is gathering pace.” Asharq Al-Awsat
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Bahrain's Investcorp Sets Up $1 Bln Fund with China's CIC

Bahrain-based Investcorp said CIC's commitment "comes at a time when the GCC's appeal to institutional investors is gathering pace.” Asharq Al-Awsat
Bahrain-based Investcorp said CIC's commitment "comes at a time when the GCC's appeal to institutional investors is gathering pace.” Asharq Al-Awsat

Alternative investment company Investcorp has launched a $1 billion fund backed by China's sovereign wealth fund CIC to invest in companies across Saudi Arabia, the wider Gulf region and China, it said in a statement on Wednesday.

The platform, which will also be anchored by institutional and private investors from the Gulf region, will target "high-growth companies" in sectors such as consumer, healthcare, logistics and business services.

Bahrain-based Investcorp said CIC's commitment "comes at a time when the GCC's appeal to institutional investors is gathering pace.”

Investcorp’s Executive Chairman, Mohammed Alardhi, said: “This commitment by CIC, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, is a testament to Investcorp’s unparalleled franchise in the GCC and reinforces the trust placed in the firm’s global platform and teams."

"We are looking forward to building on this relationship and growing our partnership in the future,” he added.

"Investcorp is perfectly placed to facilitate cross border cooperation and investments between the GCC and China," the firm's Co-CEO Hazem Ben-Gacem was quoted as saying in the statement.

CIC, which is owned by China's State Council, or cabinet, invests overseas through two subsidiaries, CIC International Co and direct investment vehicle CIC Capital Corp. It also has a domestic investment unit, China Central Huijin.

"During the past couple of years, we have built several bilateral funds with leading financial institutions to facilitate industrial cooperation between China and major economies in the world. Currently we are working closely with Investcorp to build a similar bilateral fund to strengthen financial and industrial ties between China and GCC countries," said Dr. Bin Qi, Executive Vice President and Deputy CIO of CIC.


IMF Launches Regional Office in Saudi Capital Riyadh

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on National Day in 2021. (SPA)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on National Day in 2021. (SPA)
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IMF Launches Regional Office in Saudi Capital Riyadh

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on National Day in 2021. (SPA)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on National Day in 2021. (SPA)

The International Monetary Fund will open a new regional office in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh, it said in a statement on Wednesday, to strengthen partnerships with governments and institutions in the Middle East and further afield.

Abdoul Aziz Wane, a national of Senegal, has been appointed as the first director of the regional office, the statement said.

Saudi Arabia's cabinet approved an agreement to establish an IMF regional office in the country in March.


Saudi Finance Ministry to Ask Government Agencies to Issue Fines through National Platform

An employee of the Ministry of Commerce during a visit to monitor violations (SPA)
An employee of the Ministry of Commerce during a visit to monitor violations (SPA)
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Saudi Finance Ministry to Ask Government Agencies to Issue Fines through National Platform

An employee of the Ministry of Commerce during a visit to monitor violations (SPA)
An employee of the Ministry of Commerce during a visit to monitor violations (SPA)

The Saudi Ministry of Finance will ask all government agencies to use a unified national platform to issue fines and penalties, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The Efaa Services platform enables citizens, residents, visitors and business owners to be informed of and review all their violations with government agencies, and seeks to unify, simplify and improve the relevant procedures.

The step by the Ministry of Finance was based the royal directives to compel government agencies to take fair measures when exercising their jurisdiction in accordance with regulatory texts.

The ministry has informed private sector companies of this new directive, in order to follow up on notifications regarding violations and penalties through the Efaa platform.

The vision of the Saudi government, which the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) is working to implement through the Efaa platform, seeks to enhance services and business continuity at the level of ministries, agencies and various institutions, by raising the efficiency of applications and electronic services, and improving institutional governance and its effectiveness in managing procedures and services related to issuing violations.

The platform was able to connect approximately 36 government agencies, including ministries, agencies, institutions, centers, and other affiliated entities, to unify procedures for violations and improve their process.


Egypt Expects to Achieve Primary Surplus of 5.75% of GDP in Current Fiscal Year

The Egyptian capital, Cairo (Getty)
The Egyptian capital, Cairo (Getty)
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Egypt Expects to Achieve Primary Surplus of 5.75% of GDP in Current Fiscal Year

The Egyptian capital, Cairo (Getty)
The Egyptian capital, Cairo (Getty)

Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said on Tuesday that the state’s general budget was likely to achieve a primary surplus of 5.75 percent of the gross domestic product in the fiscal year 2023-2024, as the treasury has collected $12 billion from the Ras al-Hekma investment partnership deal with the UAE.

Presenting the financial statement for the 2024-2025 general budget before the House of Representatives, Maait noted that the total budget deficit by the end of the current fiscal year was expected to reach EGP555 billion, or 4 percent of the GDP. As for the total deficit expected for the next fiscal year, the minister said that it would reach about EGP1.2 trillion, or 7.3 percent of the GDP.

He added that Egypt aims to achieve a primary surplus of EGP591.4 billion, or 3.5 percent of GDP, in the next fiscal year 2024-2025.

According to data published on the Ministry of Finance website, Egypt aims to achieve a primary surplus of 2.5 percent of GDP in the budget for the current fiscal year.