Illegal Migration from Northern Lebanon to European Shores on the Rise

Lebanese soldiers search for survivors of a migrant boat sinking off the coast of the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, Lebanon, 25 April 2022. (EPA)
Lebanese soldiers search for survivors of a migrant boat sinking off the coast of the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, Lebanon, 25 April 2022. (EPA)
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Illegal Migration from Northern Lebanon to European Shores on the Rise

Lebanese soldiers search for survivors of a migrant boat sinking off the coast of the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, Lebanon, 25 April 2022. (EPA)
Lebanese soldiers search for survivors of a migrant boat sinking off the coast of the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, Lebanon, 25 April 2022. (EPA)

Illegal migration is on the rise from northern Lebanon towards European shores.

The capsizing of a migrant boat off the impoverished northern city of Tripoli on April 23 has not deterred people from embarking on the dangerous journey.

Around 40 people were killed in the tragedy, the latest to strike Lebanon that is struggling with unprecedented economic and living crises.

Army and naval units entered the al-Abdeh-Akkar port in northern Lebanon on Friday, seizing a boat that was suspected to have been prepared to transport migrants illegally.

Two days ago, the army said it arrested a citizen in the al-Beddawi region for preparing an illegal migrant sea operation.

It said it seized a Kalashnikov rifle, 4,000 liters of diesel fuel, 100 life jackets, 46 buoys and two air pumps in his possession.

Activist Omar Ibrahim said the boat sinking in April has not deterred illegal migration.

Two smuggling attempts were thwarted just two days ago, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“We no longer know about the departure of Lebanese boats until they have reached their destination in Europe,” he said.

As for the Syrian migrants, he revealed that “no one knows their numbers or the number of boats that are taking them away from northern Lebanon. No doubt the figures are high.”

Moreover, he said that around a week ago, a boat transporting some 50 Palestinians left the al-Beddawi camp. “We didn’t know about the departure until after the migrants posted photos of themselves after they reached Italian shores,” he added.

“Either the concerned security agencies are facing difficulty in curbing illegal migration or they don’t intend to,” he remarked.

Lebanon may be following Turkey’s approach in extorting Europe to pressure them into providing funds to the refugees and ease the burden they are placing on the Lebanese state, said Ibrahim.

Politician Dr. Khaldoun al-Sharif stated that the dire economic and financial crisis is pushing people to take the treacherous sea journey out of Lebanon, which may be enduring the worst economic crisis the world has seen since World War II.

Unemployment has reached 50 percent and drug abuse 13 percent, he noted. Add to that a recent report that found the Lebanese people to be the angriest in the world.

People are desperate and the officials are continuing their petty political bickering as if nothing has changed, he lamented.

Amid Dandachi, who lost his three children in the April sinking, said the illegal migration will continue in spite of the tragedy.

“The conditions we are enduring in Tripoli and Akkar, from poverty to the dollarization of services while salaries remain in Lebanese pounds, will inevitably force people out to sea,” he stressed.

The migration will continue to rise as long as the state continues to neglect our region, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“We are bordered by Syria and Israel. The former is in a worse state than us, while the latter is an enemy, so the impoverished people have no choice but to put their life in danger at sea to secure a dignified life for their children,” he added.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.