Egypt Registers Primary Surplus of $5.2 Billion

Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)
Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)
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Egypt Registers Primary Surplus of $5.2 Billion

Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)
Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)

Egypt registered a primary surplus of EGP98.5 billion ($5.23 billion) in the 2021/22 financial year to June 30, the country’s finance ministry said on Thursday.

The overall budget deficit stood at 6.1% of GDP, the statement added.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation slowed to 13.2% year-on-year in June from 13.5% in May, data from the state statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Thursday.

Month on month, headline inflation eased 0.1%, compared to a 1.1% increase in May.

The sharpest annual price increases were in the food and drink, recreation, and restaurant and hotel sectors, according to CAPMAS.

The agency attributed the decline to an 18.8% drop in vegetable prices, and a 10.5% drop in fruit prices. The broader food and beverage index recorded -2.2% yoy in the country as a whole, and -1.8% in the cities.

Egypt, one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, has been hit by the knock-on effect of global commodity price rises that accelerated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, though the government has absorbed some of that impact.

It has been working to mitigate the war’s effect on the tourism sector, knowing that Russian and Ukrainian tourists represented almost one third of the total number of visitors.

The Central Bank targets an inflation rate between 5% and 9%, but it said when it raised interest rates by 200 basis points in May that it would temporarily tolerate inflation above that level.

The committee kept rates unchanged in June, and its next meeting is scheduled for Aug. 18.

“Prices are somewhat stable globally as oil prices saw a fall recently,” said Noaman Khalid, an economist at Arqaam Capital. “Also, there were no commodity price hike decisions from the Egyptian government.”

Inflation trends in coming months would depend on whether Egypt would need to allow commodity prices to rise under the terms of an expected deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he said.



Anger Against Trump Is Forecast to Cost the US International Visitors 

Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)
Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)
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Anger Against Trump Is Forecast to Cost the US International Visitors 

Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)
Replicas of the Statue of Liberty are displayed for sale in a tourist shop in lower Manhattan on March 28, 2025, in New York City. (AFP)

Anger over the Trump administration’s tariffs and rhetoric will likely cause international travel to the US to fall even further than expected this year, an influential travel forecasting company said Tuesday.

Tourism Economics said it expects the number of people arriving in the US from abroad to decline by 9.4% this year. That’s almost twice the 5% drop the company forecast at the end of February.

At the beginning of the year, Tourism Economics predicted a booming year for international travel to the US, with visits up 9% from 2024.

But Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said high-profile lockups of European tourists at the US border in recent weeks have chilled international travelers. Potential visitors have also been angered by tariffs, Trump's stance toward Canada and Greenland, and his heated White House exchange with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“With each policy development, each rhetorical missive, we’re just seeing unforced error after unforced error in the administration,” Sacks said. “It has a direct impact on international travel to the US.”

The decline will have consequences for airlines, hotels, national parks and other sites frequented by tourists.

Tourism Economics expects travel from Canada to plummet 20% this year, a decline that will be acutely felt in border states like New York and Michigan but also popular tourist destinations like California, Nevada and Florida.

The US Travel Association, a trade group, has also warned about Canadians staying away. Even a 10% reduction in travel from Canada could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses, the group said in February.

Other travel-related companies have noted worrying signs. At its annual shareholder meeting on Monday, Air Canada said bookings to the US were down 10% for the April-September period compared to the same period a year ago.

Sacks said he now expects foreign visitors to spend $9 billion less in the US compared to 2024, when international tourism to the country rose 9.1%.

“The irony is that the tariffs are being put in place to help right the trade deficit, but they're harming the trade balance by causing fewer international travelers to come and spend money here,” Sacks said.

Sacks said international arrivals had been getting close to returning to 2019 numbers, before the coronavirus pandemic halted most travel. Now he thinks they won't get back to that level until 2029.