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Hezbollah Shifts Strategy from 'Defense' to Threatening Israel with Escalation

Israeli soldiers at the Shtula settlement near Lebanon's border (AFP)
Israeli soldiers at the Shtula settlement near Lebanon's border (AFP)
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Hezbollah Shifts Strategy from 'Defense' to Threatening Israel with Escalation

Israeli soldiers at the Shtula settlement near Lebanon's border (AFP)
Israeli soldiers at the Shtula settlement near Lebanon's border (AFP)

The maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel shifted Hezbollah's strategy from "commitment to defense" to threatening Tel Aviv with an attack.

Hezbollah Sec-Gen Hassan Nasrallah warned of the outbreak of war if Lebanon was banned from extracting oil and gas from its water.

The official statements of the party's prominent leaders have always been limited to the threat of retaliation if Israel launches a war on Lebanon, but this is the first time in at least ten years that the party announced its readiness to initiate a war with Israel.

In a televised speech on Wednesday evening, Nasrallah warned: "If you do not give us our rights that are demanded by the state and if you don't allow companies to extract (oil), God knows what we will do."

He indicated that threatening and even going to war is better than living in the dire economic condition that exacerbates the Lebanese suffering.

The Sec-Gen warned that sending unarmed drones over the Karish gas field in the Mediterranean earlier this month was "a modest beginning to where the situation could be heading."

Nasrallah said the new equation is "Karish and beyond Karish."

"If you want to get to a formula where this country is barred from taking advantage (of these fields), then no one will be allowed to extract gas or oil, and no one will be able to sell gas or oil," Nasrallah said.

The expert on Islamic movements, Kassem Kassir, believes Nasrallah escalated his warnings to boost Lebanon's position in the negotiations and, at the same time, opened the possibility of an escalation if they reached a dead-end.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the threats are not related to the Iranian nuclear issue but linked exclusively to demarcation.

Kassir, an expert on Hezbollah matters, confirmed that the party "changed its strategy from defense to attack."

However, Lebanese political analyst Tony Abi Najm opposes Kassir, saying Hezbollah is one of the primary arms of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and all the recent developments prompted Nasrallah to say that.

He was referring to the visits of US President Joe Biden to the Middle East, President Russian Vladimir Putin to Iran, and the Israeli drills.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Abi Najm said he believed the circumstances on July 12, 2006, and today are "similar."

He explained that in 2006, the party initiated a military operation, contrary to Nasrallah's promises at the national dialogue held three months earlier.

He believes the previous war was launched according to Iran's timing when the military operation took place in parallel with nuclear negotiations to distract the world's attention.

Abi Najm believes the previous war benefited Iran, adding that the party "turned the country into an arena of Iran."

He linked Nasrallah's escalatory rhetoric with regional meetings, saying he does not rule out the possibility of a strike where Iran uses the weakest area to deliver its messages, adding that they may create tensions after the previous attempts failed.

Since last month, developments related to the demarcation of Lebanon's maritime border have accelerated, following the arrival of a production and storage vessel near the Karish field, which Beirut says is in a disputed area.

The US mediated negotiations with Israel to delineate a shared maritime border that would help determine which oil and gas resources belong to which country.

Hezbollah launched three unarmed drones towards the field, which Israel intercepted.

Iran is seeking to partner in the negotiations, and Russia will not allow substituting its gas to Europe from the Mediterranean, said Abi Najem, adding that this increases the chances of war, especially in October when the need for gas in Europe increases.

He stated that Nasrallah created an escalation in the region amid a global economic situation that usually leads to wars or significant settlements, noting that Europe and the US do not want war but may be forced to enter one if they are unable to extract gas from the Mediterranean to secure an alternative to Russian gas.

Lebanon called on the US mediator, Amos Hochstein, to resume negotiations after a vessel to extract oil arrived in the Karish field.

Lebanon also made a new offer to demarcate the border that did not include Karish, but it didn't reach any result.

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Arab World

UN Probe: RSF Actions in Sudan's el-Fasher Point to Genocide

Forces affiliated with the Rapid Support Forces in the city of el-Fasher, Darfur region (AFP)
Forces affiliated with the Rapid Support Forces in the city of el-Fasher, Darfur region (AFP)
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UN Probe: RSF Actions in Sudan's el-Fasher Point to Genocide

Forces affiliated with the Rapid Support Forces in the city of el-Fasher, Darfur region (AFP)
Forces affiliated with the Rapid Support Forces in the city of el-Fasher, Darfur region (AFP)

Mass killings of non-Arab communities when the Rapid Support Forces captured the Sudanese city of el-Fasher bears hallmarks that point to genocide, an independent UN probe said in a new report on Thursday.

At the end of October last year, the RSF took over the city - which had been the last remaining stronghold of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the Darfur region in the west of the country - with thousands of people killed and raped during three days of horror, the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan said.

It followed an 18-month siege where the RSF imposed conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction of non-Arab communities, in particular the Zaghawa and the Fur, ‌the report stated.

The ‌UN mission said it found evidence that the RSF carried out a pattern ‌of ⁠coordinated and repeated ⁠targeting of individuals based on ethnicity, gender and perceived political affiliation, including mass killings, rape and torture, as well as inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the group’s physical destruction - core elements of the crime of genocide under international law.

The final draft of the report was shared with the Government of Sudan but no response was received, while the RSF did not respond to the UN mission's request to meet with its leadership, the report stated. The RSF and SAF did not immediately respond to requests from Reuters for comment.

In the past, the RSF has ⁠denied such abuses - saying the accounts have been manufactured by its enemies and ‌making counter-accusations against them.

"The scale, coordination, and public endorsement of the operation ‌by senior RSF leadership demonstrate that the crimes committed in and around el-Fasher were not random excesses of war" said Mohamad ‌Chande Othman, Chair of the Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan.

"They formed part of a planned and organized operation ‌that bears the defining characteristics of genocide," he added.

Before its takeover el-Fasher's population mainly consisted of the Zaghawa, a non-Arab community, while displacement camps around the area were comprised of the Fur community, as well as Berti, Masalit and Tama, the report said.

"Survivors describe explicit threats to 'clean' the city," the report stated. Alongside attacking displacement camps, communal kitchens and medical centers ‌with drones and heavy weapons, the RSF also carried out killings, looting, beatings and sexual violence in el-Fasher, the report stated.

The RSF's "exterminatory rhetoric" and other violations indicated ⁠its intent to destroy ⁠the Zaghawa and Fur communities in whole or in part, the report said.

"Witnesses heard the Rapid Support Forces saying, 'Is there anyone Zaghawa among you? If we find Zaghawa, we will kill them all'," the report said.

Survivors recounted point-blank executions of civilians, as well as bodies of men, women and children filling roads, the report stated.

Women and girls aged 7 to 70 years old from non-Arab communities, particularly the Zaghawa were raped and subject to other acts of sexual violence, including whipping and forced nudity, the report stated.

British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the international response to the report and the situation in Sudan had to be emphatic and urged for a ceasefire.

"The findings of this UN report are truly horrific - atrocities including systematic starvation, torture, killings, rape and deliberate ethnic targeting used on the most horrendous scale during the Rapid Support Forces siege of el-Fasher," she said in a statement.

The UN mission was mandated by members of the Human Rights Council, following backing from countries that included Britain, to urgently investigate violations and abuses under international law in and around el-Fasher.

Arab World

Sudanese Political, Civil Groups Propose Ramadan Truce

The war in Sudan, ongoing since mid-April 2023, has caused extensive destruction across the country (AFP)
The war in Sudan, ongoing since mid-April 2023, has caused extensive destruction across the country (AFP)
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Sudanese Political, Civil Groups Propose Ramadan Truce

The war in Sudan, ongoing since mid-April 2023, has caused extensive destruction across the country (AFP)
The war in Sudan, ongoing since mid-April 2023, has caused extensive destruction across the country (AFP)

A broad coalition of Sudanese political and civil forces has made an urgent appeal to the leadership of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), calling for a “comprehensive humanitarian truce” during the holy month of Ramadan.

The initiative calls for a temporary cessation of hostilities, guarantees for the protection of civilians, and unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, amid increasingly dire humanitarian conditions as Sudanese citizens observe their fourth consecutive Ramadan under gunfire and shelling.

More than ten Sudanese political parties made the appeal, some of which are part of the Civil Democratic Alliance of the Forces of the Revolution (“Sumoud”), led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

Prominent signatories include the National Umma Party, the Federal Gathering, and the Sudanese Congress Party.

The document was also endorsed by parties outside the “Sumoud” alliance, most notably the Arab Baath Socialist Party and the Democratic Unionist Party, alongside various civil and trade union groups.

The appeal urges both warring parties — the army and the RSF — to announce a humanitarian truce beginning on the first day of Ramadan. The proposal includes a ceasefire, the safeguarding of civilian facilities, the opening of safe corridors for relief organizations, the immediate release of civilian detainees, and the initiation of prisoner exchange arrangements under international supervision to ensure compliance with humanitarian law.

It also calls for clear monitoring and implementation mechanisms to prevent either side from exploiting the truce for military gains.

The signatories stressed that the initiative comes in response to the worsening humanitarian crisis, particularly among vulnerable groups such as women, children, and the elderly, and to the mounting threats to the lives of millions, which they say require urgent intervention.

This marks the second initiative put forward by political and civil forces to halt the war since its outbreak in 2023. The first resulted in the signing of what became known as the “Addis Ababa Declaration” between the Civil Democratic Forces Alliance (Taqaddum) and the RSF. The declaration was addressed to the army leadership, which neither rejected nor signed it.

Since the fall of the cities of El-Fasher and Babanusa, as well as the town of Heglig in West Kordofan State, clashes between the army and the RSF intensified in South and North Kordofan before subsiding in recent weeks and shifting into more “technical” warfare.

This phase has seen the increased use of combat drones, jamming devices, guided artillery, and aerial munitions, leading to a rise in civilian casualties and injuries.

Arab World

Anger in Iraq Over Use of ‘Greatest Arab Poet’ in Ramadan Ad

The late Iraqi poet Muhammad Mahdi al-Jawahiri serves tea to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as portrayed in a Ramadan advertisement
The late Iraqi poet Muhammad Mahdi al-Jawahiri serves tea to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as portrayed in a Ramadan advertisement
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Anger in Iraq Over Use of ‘Greatest Arab Poet’ in Ramadan Ad

The late Iraqi poet Muhammad Mahdi al-Jawahiri serves tea to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as portrayed in a Ramadan advertisement
The late Iraqi poet Muhammad Mahdi al-Jawahiri serves tea to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as portrayed in a Ramadan advertisement

Baghdad - A promotional video produced by a local platform and sponsored by several companies has sparked widespread criticism in Iraq over content described as “irresponsible,” according to the Iraqi Writers and Authors Union, for allegedly insulting the “Greatest Arab Poet,” Muhammad Mahdi al-Jawahiri (1899–1997), as well as former royal-era prime minister Nuri al-Said (1888–1958).

Although the production company branded the advertisement “Unified Iraq,” it depicted al-Jawahiri in an AI-generated image serving tea to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani inside his office. In a similar scene, Nuri al-Said was shown serving tea to former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, triggering a wave of public outrage.

Alongside the controversy over the AI-generated portrayals of al-Jawahiri and al-Said, another debate erupted after the video showed US Chargé d’Affaires Joshua Harris, British Ambassador Irfan Siddiq, French Ambassador Patrick Durel, and German Ambassador Daniel Krebber at a banquet, appearing to be hosted by Farhad Alaaldin, the Iraqi prime minister’s adviser for foreign affairs.

The advertisement also briefly featured the late Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani, holding an umbrella while walking through the streets of Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, raising further questions about its purpose.

While the video included a song about “a unified Iraq as a homeland of peace,” critics said its central narrative — built around a homeless young beggar — was confusing and poorly defined. Sources close to the production team told Asharq Al-Awsat that the creators had “their own artistic methods” of expressing the idea.

Government Distances Itself

Amid the mounting backlash, the prime minister’s office expressed rejection of “the virtual video in which al-Jawahiri appeared in a manner inconsistent with the prime minister’s respect and appreciation for his literary and national stature.”

Al-Sudani instructed the Communications and Media Commission to launch an urgent investigation into the entities that produced, promoted, or published the advertisement, citing its alleged offense to cultural icons and state institutions, as well as what he described as the irresponsible and unprofessional use of artificial intelligence technologies.

He also signaled the possibility of legal action against the party responsible for producing what he called “the offensive video against Iraq and its national symbols.”

In contrast, the production company asserted that the PM’s office had prior knowledge of the project, and that the same applied to al-Halbousi. However, sources denied being aware of the inclusion of al-Jawahiri and Nuri al-Said in the work.

The sources also suggested that a government official may have been involved in facilitating the production in cooperation with Al-Bayan University, whose building and offices appeared in the advertisement.

“Deliberate Insult”

The Iraqi Writers and Authors Union condemned what it called an “insult to the immortal al-Jawahiri” after the video showed him serving tea to the prime minister.

In a statement, the union said the act reflected “a deliberate offense to a poet distinguished by his immense cultural and moral value, and his well-known national and humanitarian positions.”

It urged relevant authorities to take a firm and deterrent stance against “irresponsible acts aimed at distorting facts and undermining Iraq’s national symbols.”

The union added that al-Jawahiri remained a national symbol “we proudly present to the world and refuse to see insulted by any party.”

The union was founded in al-Jawahiri’s home in 1959 and he became Iraq’s first journalists’ syndicate head the same year.

Claims of Prior Approvals

Facing intense criticism, the advertisement’s author and head of the production company said all participating political figures had approved the details of the project and filming inside their offices.

She stated that the scenes featuring al-Sudani and al-Halbousi were real, with only the figures of al-Jawahiri and Nuri al-Said later added using artificial intelligence.

In a statement on Instagram, al-Jumaili said the project took two months to complete and was reviewed by several international parties before being shown in Iraq, adding that “no step was taken without official approvals.” She did not specify the nature of those entities or whether the political figures were aware of the AI portrayals alongside them.

She argued that the backlash was politically driven and overlooked the advertisement’s positive messages, later explaining that the tea-serving scenes symbolized a “national identity” passed from past intellectual and political leaders to a new generation of leaders.