A deal has been reached to allow grain from Ukraine to be exported unhindered through what is called a safe corridor in the Black Sea. If this agreement can be implemented, 20-25 million tons of Ukrainian grain will not rot in silos and will be shipped to their destinations.
The signing ceremony took place in Istanbul with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and President Recep Tayyib Erdogan of Turkey as host and facilitator. Present were, representatives from Ukraine (Minister of Infrastructure), Russia (Minister of Defense) and Turkey (Minister of Defense).
A couple of notes about the signing ceremony: The Russians and Ukrainians signed different texts (with the UN and Turkey) and not with each other. There are two separate, but complementing agreements.
There was no press conference after the signing ceremony. The message was that this is a unique arrangement to overcome a food crisis, which is a humanitarian issue. Apart from that, the two sides do not want to talk to each other and the war continues.
According to this arrangement, which will be valid for an initial period of four months (that will be extended automatically unless there is objection from either side), a “joint coordination center” and a joint committee responsible for implementation will be set up in Istanbul.
Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhne will be the Ukrainian ports where grain will be loaded.
There will be one safe corridor so as not to complicate matters.
Ukraine will be responsible to guide grain ships through mines, which it has laid outside the ports against Russians. There will be no naval mine removal operation.
Russia will refrain from military action in the area while ships are on the move.
There will be an inspection mechanism whereby outbound (from Ukrainian ports) and returning ships will be inspected for any possibility of shipments other than grain as there is a major Russian concern that ships on their way back could be bringing weapons. Russia will be able to export fertilizers.
The implementation of the deal will be effective as soon as possible, hopefully in a couple of weeks. Operational procedures will have to be finalized first.
Technical level delegations from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations have met several times and were able to come up with an arrangement. It must have been a very difficult exercise.
I assume that any remaining problems were dealt with in Tehran three days ago at the highest level when Presidents Erdogan and Vladimir Putin met.
One question that comes to mind is whether the agreement on the safe corridor was a part of a package including maybe Syria-related issues, sanctions against Russia and gas exports.
The Istanbul agreement came at a time when Turkey has been blamed for the shelling and killing of civilians in Zaho in the Duhok province in the administrative boundaries of the boundaries of the Kurdistan region of Iraq on July 20.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement rejecting the accusations and blaming the attack on the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Turkey stated its readiness to take necessary steps to dig for the truth and invited the Iraqi government to conduct a joint investigation. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi had harsh words for Turkey. Nechirvan Barzani, President of the region, also condemned the attack but stood short of pinning the blame on Turkey.
Back to Istanbul on Friday, even the news that a deal could be signed led to a two percent fall in wheat prices. Governments of developing and underdeveloped countries in need of grain to feed their populations must be much more hopeful for the future, following the signing of the agreement.
It should be noted that despite the signing, all countries involved and affected in one way or another by the war in Ukraine, continue to work on alternatives, such as improvements of certain border crossings, roads, railways and ports in Moldova and Romania.
The other major problem which the war in Ukraine has caused is energy security. Russia has been using its natural gas resources to retaliate against sanctions.
Europe receives around 40 percent of its gas from Russia and the major importer of Russian gas in the continent is Germany. Ten days ago, Russia stopped gas transactions through Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to maintenance work. Now, the pipeline has become operational once again but at a reduced level.
Winter is coming and the EU is trying hard to diversify its sources. European countries have been called upon by EU officials to cut off, by a certain percentage, their use of gas.
Despite the deal in Istanbul, it seems that we are still in for an extended war in Ukraine.
With all sanctions and limitations, Russia is faced with draining of its resources but it still seems able to keep things running for quite some time more.
Against Russia’s aggression, Ukraine is determined to fight on and does not have the intention to give up its territories. Counter offensives are taking place and arms from the West keep coming in.
What about public opinion?
In Russia, objections to government policies usually end up at the tip of a police baton and in jail. On the other hand, even though police batons can also come into play, the western public opinion has a say on matters and can influence the policies of their government.
As an anecdote, a former Turkish diplomat, who knows Russia well, said: “Russians, other than those living in Moscow, St Petersburg and maybe a few more cities, are living their normal lives as if they are under sanctions. Therefore, I am not sure if they are even aware that they are under sanctions because of the invasion of Ukraine”.
The Istanbul agreement is a much-needed diplomatic success for Turkey, which is now in a position to argue that keeping talking terms with Russia has enabled this outcome.
The grain deal is the first agreement where Ukrainian and Russian negotiators sat around the same table since the start of the war. If this agreement could be reached, why not others?
But we need to bear in mind that territorial and other issues would most probably be much more complicated than grain issues.
Signing the grain corridor deal is a major achievement but it is not the end. The two sides distrust each other and dynamics of the war are in play. Ukraine and Russia are both concerned that the other side may use the arrangement to serve military purposes.
What needs to be seen is the implementation of the arrangement. On a last note, what was achieved in Istanbul is important but fragile.
