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Four Months of Yemen Truce

Yemenis suffer from the Houthi blockade when traveling to and from Taiz (AFP)
Yemenis suffer from the Houthi blockade when traveling to and from Taiz (AFP)
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Four Months of Yemen Truce

Yemenis suffer from the Houthi blockade when traveling to and from Taiz (AFP)
Yemenis suffer from the Houthi blockade when traveling to and from Taiz (AFP)

Any journalist following the Yemeni developments will not be surprised by the lack of information from their sources, as international and Yemeni figures are exerting efforts to extend the four-month Yemeni ceasefire that will end in ten days.

The UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, returned to the region on a tour seeking to extend the deal, taking advantage of several indications he received recently, whether the Saudi-US joint statement, the Jeddah Gulf summit, or the statement issued by Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, the UK, and the US a few days ago.

Yemeni Information Ministry Undersecretary Najib Ghallab said that one of the most important outcomes of the Jeddah summit was the support for the change that led to rebuilding the Yemeni political system.

Ghallab noted that the summit considered the Presidential Leadership Council the representative of Yemen and its legitimacy, reiterating the importance of such moves because the whole world still believes Houthi is an insurgent group with terrorist tendencies.

Many Yemeni, regional, and international meetings, statements, and positions support the UN envoy and the ceasefire.

The official Iranian discourse supports the ceasefire in Yemen, even as a "political facade."

However, the Houthis are the only party that issued an official statement refusing to extend the truce, despite the weak arguments of the Iranian-backed militias.

Observers stated the group did not exert extraordinary efforts to implement the ceasefire provisions, and they obstructed the deal's article of reopening the crossings, the only one that has not been implemented out of the four, including the ceasefire, allowing flights to Sanaa airport, ensuring the flow of fuel to Hodeidah, and the reopening of the crossings.

- Regional Tour

On Saturday, the Oman News Agency announced the arrival of the UN envoy to Muscat, saying he met with the Undersecretary of Diplomatic Affairs, Khalifa al-Harthy.

During the meeting, views were exchanged on several regional and international issues.

Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdul Salam, who resides in Oman, met with Grundberg, who is trying to urge the group to extend the truce.

During the first half of 2022, Yemen witnessed several developments, such as electing the Leadership Council and naming seven deputies to the chairman, which was a significant qualitative leap for all the forces that opposed the Houthi coup.

The UN extended the ceasefire for two more months amid international efforts to prolong it for six more months.

Houthis were only asked to agree to two things: the ceasefire, which the militia partially implemented, and reopening the crossings, especially Taiz, which the group did not execute. It also obstructed at least three UN proposals despite engaging in two rounds of negotiations in Amman.

Grundberg traveled to Sanaa seeking a breakthrough with the proposals, but his proposal was rejected.

Will Houthis agree to Extend the Ceasefire?

Houthis claim extending the ceasefire is futile, yet many Yemenis believe the group benefited from the truce.

A Yemeni source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group would eventually agree to the extension, noting that Houthis continue to mobilize their forces, but the government is not preparing for that.

On Saturday, local reports in Yemen recorded that 12 civilians, including children, were injured due to Houthi shelling in Taiz. Instead of reopening the roads, the Houthi militia continued its attacks and blockade around the governorate.

The Houthis' violations prompted many Yemeni politicians and media to wonder about the point of extending the ceasefire.

The military solution is very "expensive" for Houthis, and the Yemeni government is more robust after it unified its ranks and is no longer preoccupied with internal conflicts.

Head of the Defense for Rights and Freedoms Foundation Huda al-Sarari said that the Houthi group "is exploiting" the tolerance of the coalition and the international community, blackmailing the UN envoy and categorically rejecting any confidence-building measures in preparation for the implementation of the agreement.

Sarari believes that with such an ideological extremist group, more pressure should be exerted, adding that the international community must impose sanctions on its political and military leadership.

The expert also called for pressuring Iran, which supplies the Houthi group with money and weapons.

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Kharg Island: Iran’s Vital Oil Hub in the Crosshairs?

This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island, which hosts the country's main crude export terminal and is responsible for the overwhelming majority of its oil shipments to the world, about 25 kilometers south of the mainland in the north of the Gulf, on March 2, 2026. (AFP / ESA)
This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island, which hosts the country's main crude export terminal and is responsible for the overwhelming majority of its oil shipments to the world, about 25 kilometers south of the mainland in the north of the Gulf, on March 2, 2026. (AFP / ESA)
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Kharg Island: Iran’s Vital Oil Hub in the Crosshairs?

This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island, which hosts the country's main crude export terminal and is responsible for the overwhelming majority of its oil shipments to the world, about 25 kilometers south of the mainland in the north of the Gulf, on March 2, 2026. (AFP / ESA)
This handout image taken by the European Space Agency (ESA) captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite shows a view of Iran's Kharg Island, which hosts the country's main crude export terminal and is responsible for the overwhelming majority of its oil shipments to the world, about 25 kilometers south of the mainland in the north of the Gulf, on March 2, 2026. (AFP / ESA)

Kharg Island, a scrubby stretch of land in the northern Gulf, handles almost all of Iran's crude exports and any attempt to seize it would mark a major escalation in the conflict, analysts say.

The US and Israel have so far treaded carefully around the island, but an Axios report over the weekend cited Trump administration officials saying capturing Kharg was on the table as the war in the Middle East persists.

The island, located around 30 kilometers (19 miles) off the Iranian mainland, handles roughly 90 percent of Iran's crude exports, according to a JP Morgan note released Sunday.

Any move on the territory, which is about one-third the size of Manhattan, would have swift repercussions, experts say.

"A direct strike would immediately halt the bulk of Iran's crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure," JP Morgan said.

Iranian strikes have all but halted maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz -- through which a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally pass -- and have also impacted oil infrastructure in other Gulf states.

But Iranian energy assets have not been degraded so far and targeting the island would be "a very risky move", Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told AFP.

Iran is not only "experienced in using alternatives" in wartime, it could "cause a lot more damage on the Gulf oil and gas installations if they want to and they can do a lot more very quickly, and everybody knows that".

"I don't think that seizing the island will go any further than US Congressional debates," he added -- the prospect having been discussed in Washington since the hostage crisis that started in 1979 during the foundation of the Islamic republic.

Kharg underwent key developments during Iran's oil expansion in the 1960s and 1970s, with much of the country's coast too shallow for supertankers.

Iran has looked to diversify its export capabilities by opening the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint in the Gulf of Oman in 2021, but Kharg remains "a critical vulnerability" for Iran, JP Morgan said.

"It is a cornerstone of Iran's economy and a major source of revenue for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard," JP Morgan added, referring to the well-resourced ideological branch of Iran's army.

- 'Very difficult' -

The war has sent oil prices soaring, although US President Donald Trump's suggestion on Monday that the conflict could end soon has calmed the market.

Over the weekend, the director of the White House National Energy Dominance Council Jarrod Agen told Fox News that "what we want to do is get such massive oil reserves in Iran out of the hands of terrorists".

Also in recent days, the Washington Post reported heightened speculation that US ground forces could be being prepared to deploy, citing analysts saying Kharg Island would be an early target.

Nadimi said Washington could move to seize the island when hostilities end, but that it was "not a wise move" during combat when Kharg is "almost an entire island of oil facilities and pipelines and tank farms".

"It is very difficult to wage a military operation on that particular island," he said.

But other oil infrastructure could be in the crosshairs, with Trump repeatedly referencing his operation to topple Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and gain access to the country's oil reserves in January as a blueprint.

Iran -- the fourth-biggest crude producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- vowed not one liter of oil would be exported from the Gulf while the war continues.

Any attack on its infrastructure would get an "eye for an eye" response, it said.

On Saturday, Israel launched its first attack of the war on oil facilities in Iran, but it said they were used "to operate military infrastructure".

The same day, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid argued for stronger steps, saying in an X post: "Israel needs to destroy all of Iran's oil fields and energy industry on Kharg Island; that's what will crush Iran's economy and bring down the regime."

Features

Lebanon’s Latest Conflict Brings Rare Public Backlash Against Hezbollah as War Flares Again

Two women look at the sea as boxes of food prepared for Iftar during Ramadan lie on a bench along the Corniche, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Beirut, Lebanon, March 10, 2026. (Reuters)
Two women look at the sea as boxes of food prepared for Iftar during Ramadan lie on a bench along the Corniche, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Beirut, Lebanon, March 10, 2026. (Reuters)
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Lebanon’s Latest Conflict Brings Rare Public Backlash Against Hezbollah as War Flares Again

Two women look at the sea as boxes of food prepared for Iftar during Ramadan lie on a bench along the Corniche, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Beirut, Lebanon, March 10, 2026. (Reuters)
Two women look at the sea as boxes of food prepared for Iftar during Ramadan lie on a bench along the Corniche, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Beirut, Lebanon, March 10, 2026. (Reuters)

The Lebanese mother of two had just awakened to prepare the pre-dawn meal before another day of fasting during the holy month of Ramadan when Israeli warplanes began attacking southern Lebanon in retaliation for rockets and drones launched by Hezbollah.

The family quickly packed up and headed toward Beirut, seeking safety from another deadly war between Israel and Hezbollah. With tens of thousands of others fleeing on that March 2 day, the usually one-hour trip from the southern city of Nabatiyeh took 15 hours.

“I am against giving pretexts to Israel,” said the 45-year-old woman, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals from the Hezbollah supporters she lives among.

“I am totally against Hezbollah’s decision to start with the first strike,” said the woman, who is now living with her husband, their 17- and 12-year-old children, and her mother-in-law inside a school turned into a shelter in the Lebanese capital.

As Hezbollah enters a new round of fighting with Israel just 15 months after the last Israel-Hezbollah war ended with a November 2024 US-brokered ceasefire, the Iran-backed group and political party is facing increasing grassroots discontent within its base and problems with the Lebanese authorities.

Population still reeling from the previous war

On March 2, two days after Israel and the US launched attacks on Iran, igniting a war in the Middle East, Hezbollah fired missiles and drones into Israel for the first time in more than a year.

Hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa valley and Beirut’s southern suburbs have fled their homes after Israeli warnings that their neighborhoods, towns and villages would be targeted.

The new round of fighting comes as Shiite communities that suffered the brunt of the last conflict are still reeling from it. The last Israel-Hezbollah war killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon and caused $11 billion in damage, according to the World Bank.

Unlike in the past, when many people were afraid to publicly criticize Hezbollah, some Lebanese Shiites are openly blaming the group for their current misery as they find themselves living in the street, on public squares, or with relatives or friends amid cold weather and fasting during Ramadan.

For Hussein Ali, it was the second time in less than two years that he was forced to leave his house in Beirut’s southern suburb of Haret Hreik. During the last Israel-Hezbollah war, the apartment where he lived was destroyed and now the vegetable vendor is worried the same thing will happen again.

“No one wanted this war,” said the man, who is also staying in the school and relying on aid to survive. “People haven’t recovered from the previous war."

Government takes a harsher stance

After the end of Lebanon's civil war in 1990, militias were required to disarm, but Hezbollah was exempted because it was fighting Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon at the time.

Now the Lebanese government has sought to crack down on the group’s armed wing and end its status as a parallel armed force outside of state control.

The shift was clear when, on March 2, the Lebanese government moved to declare Hezbollah’s military activities illegal, with all but two of the 24 Cabinet ministers voting in favor; only the two Hezbollah ministers voted no. Even ministers from Hezbollah’s strongest ally, the Amal group of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, voted to approve the measure.

“The government confirms that the decision of war and peace is only in the hand of the state,” Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said, adding that the government “orders the immediate ban on all of Hezbollah’s military activities as they are illegal and it should be forced to hand over its weapons to the Lebanese state.”

The Lebanese army has since begun to crack down and last week arrested three Hezbollah members who were found transporting weapons at a checkpoint. But the men were released on bail Monday.

Government officials have accused Hezbollah of repeatedly taking unilateral military actions that should be under state authority. On Oct. 8, 2023, the group began attacking Israel a day after the assault led by the Iranian-backed Hamas on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza.

Now, the group has entered the fray on behalf of Iran to avenge the killing of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, as well as in retaliation, it says, for Israeli violations of the November 2024 ceasefire.

Some Hezbollah supporters see the war as justified

Ali al-Amin, a Lebanese journalist who is a harsh critic of Hezbollah, said that while some people are now criticizing the armed group more than in the past, many still remain quiet out of fear for their safety.

“Criticism could have a high cost and not all people express their opinions,” said al-Amin, a Shiite from south Lebanon, who added that many poor Shiites rely on assistance that could be cut off anytime by Hezbollah or the allied Amal movement.

In the past, people who criticized Hezbollah on social media were sometimes roughed up by its supporters and forced to make new videos saying they were wrong.

But the group still has many supporters. They say that Hezbollah's decision to strike was justified because Israel had not abided by the November 2024 ceasefire.

Since the ceasefire, Israel has continued to carry out almost daily airstrikes against Hezbollah, which have killed about 400 people, including dozens of civilians, and that have also prevented the reconstruction of destroyed areas.

“We cannot tolerate that anymore,” said Ali Saleh who was displaced from a southern village near Nabatiyeh. “I pray for God to protect our young men and make them victorious against Israel."

Even the Shiite woman who criticized Hezbollah's move to strike first said that if the party hadn't, the result might have been the same.

“If we attack they will attack us and if we don’t attack they would have attacked us,” she said.

Sadek Nabulsi, a political science professor at the Lebanese University whose thinking aligns with Hezbollah, said the latest complaints are nothing new and don’t represent a fissure in grassroots support for the Iranian-allied groups. There was a similar outcry during the 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war that ended in 2024 and the monthlong war in 2006, he said.

“Hezbollah’s base of support is known for ... tolerating pain,” Nabulsi said. “If you look at this base of support, despite all the harsh conditions, it is still coherent, patient and waiting for salvation.”

Features

Gaza Patients Face Death Again as Rafah Crossing Stays Closed

Palestinian patients sit in wheelchairs in the courtyard of the Red Crescent Hospital in Khan Younis while waiting to leave for treatment (AFP)
Palestinian patients sit in wheelchairs in the courtyard of the Red Crescent Hospital in Khan Younis while waiting to leave for treatment (AFP)
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Gaza Patients Face Death Again as Rafah Crossing Stays Closed

Palestinian patients sit in wheelchairs in the courtyard of the Red Crescent Hospital in Khan Younis while waiting to leave for treatment (AFP)
Palestinian patients sit in wheelchairs in the courtyard of the Red Crescent Hospital in Khan Younis while waiting to leave for treatment (AFP)

Patients and wounded in Gaza are facing increasingly harsh conditions after Israeli authorities again closed the Rafah land crossing, which had been partially reopened for a short period under a ceasefire agreement following a prolonged shutdown that prevented tens of thousands from leaving for medical treatment.

The crossing’s reopening at the beginning of February had raised hopes among patients and the wounded that they would be able to travel abroad for treatment. However, Israeli restrictions on the number of people permitted to leave further complicated the situation.

Those hopes faded when the crossing was closed again following the start of the war with Iran on the 28th of last month.

Twelve-year-old Asmaa al-Shawish, who suffers from a rare disease known as Sanfilippo syndrome, has for years faced the threat of death as her health has recently deteriorated sharply, her mother told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Her mother said the girl had obtained a medical referral to receive treatment abroad in 2023, shortly before the war began, but did not manage to travel in time. She remained inside Gaza, and her condition has continued to worsen day by day.

She said her daughter is losing the ability to drink water and suffers from brain atrophy as well as enlargement of the liver and spleen. The child also experiences constant seizures and requires daily treatment in hospitals in an effort to keep her alive as long as possible. Her condition, she added, is deteriorating rapidly.

“When the Rafah crossing opened, we felt a little hope that we might be able to travel again,” she said. “But the large number of patients and wounded waiting like us delayed our departure until the occupation closed it again, leaving us to face our fate on our own.”

“Every time I see my daughter in this condition, I grieve over her harsh circumstances,” she added. “I see her taking her last breaths, and she could die at any moment.”

20,000 Patients

According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 20,000 patients and wounded people urgently need treatment abroad. Deaths are already being recorded among those waiting for the crossing to reopen regularly, as it operated before the war, so they can travel and save their lives.

The ministry said hospitals in the enclave lack the medical capabilities needed to save these patients amid the difficult conditions imposed by the Israeli blockade. It added that some medicines have completely run out, while others are close to being depleted.

According to the government media office, the total number of travelers and returnees during the period when the Rafah land crossing was partially open reached 1,148 out of the 3,400 expected to travel in both directions. This represents about 33% compliance with the agreement that was supposed to be implemented after the ceasefire.

Government sources from Hamas told Asharq Al-Awsat that there are “no promises to reopen the Rafah land crossing, even partially.”

Hazem Qassem, a spokesman for Hamas, said the continued closure of the Rafah crossing “under flimsy security pretexts and false claims” represents a “blatant and dangerous violation” of the ceasefire agreement and a retreat from commitments made to mediators, particularly Egypt.

He said the move is part of efforts to “tighten the blockade” imposed on the enclave, preventing tens of thousands of wounded people from traveling to receive what he described as their natural right to medical treatment.

Continued Killings

On the ground, Israel has continued its escalation, killing more Palestinians and striking multiple targets across the enclave.

The Israeli military said on Tuesday it had killed six Palestinians, three of whom it said had crossed the “yellow line” north of the enclave, and three armed Hamas members in tunnels in Rafah.

The number of Palestinian deaths since the ceasefire has risen to more than 656, including at least 20 killed since the start of the war with Iran. The cumulative toll since Oct. 7, 2023, has reached 72,134 deaths.

This coincided with Israeli airstrikes, artillery shelling and gunfire in several areas on both sides of the yellow line in the enclave. For the second consecutive day, bulldozers were seen demolishing what remained of homes east of Khan Younis, about 20 meters from Salah al-Din Road.

A warplane also struck a house whose residents had evacuated following an Israeli order in northern Khan Younis. Another strike hit a mobile phone charging point and an internet service station in an empty area next to tents housing displaced people southwest of Gaza City.