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High Expectations for Growth of Saudi Telecom Market

The Saudi telecom sector is likely to grow in response to technology developments. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi telecom sector is likely to grow in response to technology developments. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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High Expectations for Growth of Saudi Telecom Market

The Saudi telecom sector is likely to grow in response to technology developments. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi telecom sector is likely to grow in response to technology developments. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia ranked third as the fastest growing economy among the G20 countries, and first in the world in the 5G average download speed.

Some economists have raised expectations for the growth of the Saudi telecom market - the largest market in the Middle East and North Africa.

Saudi Arabia and the United States concluded a memorandum of cooperation in the field of 5G and 6G, with the aim of accelerating the growth of the digital economy and promoting the pace of research, development and innovation in the Kingdom.

Saudi businessman Abdullah Al-Malehi told Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia had major leaps in the global ranks in the field of communications.

Pointing to figures by GSMA, Al-Malehi said that in 2020, the size of the communications and information technology market in the Kingdom amounted to USD36 billion, achieving a growth rate of seven percent compared to 2019.

The Saudi communications investor said that the revenues of telecom companies listed on the Saudi stock market continued to grow for the fourth year in a row, reaching 86.4 billion riyals (USD23 billion) in 2021, compared to about 81.12 billion riyals (USD21.6 billion) the previous year.

He also stressed that the size of the IT and emerging technologies market in the Kingdom amounted to more than USD17 billion, with a growth rate of 10 percent compared to 2019, while the contribution of the communications and information technology sector to the GDP reached 5.1 percent.

Al-Malehi explained that a new memorandum of cooperation linking technology companies in both the Kingdom and the United States would enhance the application of the 5G using open radio networks, enable the development of the 6G through similar technologies, and enhance partnership in the field of cloud infrastructure and related technologies.

Dr. Abdul Rahman Baeshen, head of the Al-Shorouk Center for Economic Studies in Jazan, stressed that the communications and information technology sector was the future of the digital economy, explaining that Saudi Vision 2030 included this field as a major axis for development and economic transformation.

He added that among the 18 agreements that Riyadh signed with Washington during President Joe Biden’s recent visit to the Kingdom was a major cooperation agreement in the field of technology and communications.

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Trump Goes to War with the Fed

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, seen in April 2025, said he considered Fed independence to be a matter of law. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, seen in April 2025, said he considered Fed independence to be a matter of law. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP
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Trump Goes to War with the Fed

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, seen in April 2025, said he considered Fed independence to be a matter of law. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, seen in April 2025, said he considered Fed independence to be a matter of law. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP

Donald Trump's simmering discontent with the US Federal Reserve boiled over this week, with the president threatening to take the unprecedented step of ousting the head of the fiercely independent central bank.

Trump has repeatedly said he wants rate cuts now to help stimulate economic growth as he rolls out his tariff plans, and has threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he does not comply, putting the bank and the White House on a collision course that analysts warn could destabilize US financial markets.

"If I want him out, he'll be out of there real fast, believe me," Trump said Thursday, referring to Powell, whose second four-year stint as Fed chair ends in May 2026.
Powell has said he has no plans to step down early, adding this week that he considers the bank's independence over monetary policy to be a "matter of law."

"Clearly, the fact that the Fed chairman feels that he has to address it means that they are serious," KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told AFP, referring to the White House.

Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, said she thinks "they will come into conflict," but does not think "that the Fed is going to succumb to the political pressure."

Most economists agree that the administration's tariff plans -- which include a 10 percent "baseline" rate on imports from most countries -- will put upward pressure on prices and cool economic growth, at least in the short term.

That would keep inflation well away from the Fed's long-term target of two percent, and likely prevent policymakers from cutting rates in the next few months.

"They're not going to react because Trump posted that they should be cutting," Roth said in an interview, adding that doing so would be "a recipe for a disaster" for the US economy.

- Fed independence 'absolutely critical' -
Many legal scholars say the US president does not have the power to fire the Fed chair or any of his colleagues on the bank's 19-person rate-setting committee for any reason but cause.

The Fed system, created more than a century ago, is also designed to insulate the US central bank from political interference.

"Independence is absolutely critical for the Fed," said Roth. "Countries that do not have independent central banks have currencies that are notably weaker and interest rates that are notably higher."

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told AFP that "we've had strong evidence that impairing central bank independence is a really bad idea."

- 'Can't control the bond market' -
One serious threat to the Fed's independence comes from an ongoing case in which the Trump administration has indicated it will seek to challenge a 1935 Supreme Court decision denying the US president the right to fire the heads of independent government agencies.

The case could have serious ramifications for the Fed, given its status as an independent agency whose leadership believes they cannot currently be fired by the president for any reason but cause.

But even if the Trump administration succeeds in court, it may soon run into the ultimate guardrail of Fed independence: The bond markets.

During the recent market turbulence unleashed by Trump's tariff plans, US government bond yields surged and the dollar fell, signaling that investors may not see the United States as the safe haven investment it once was.

Faced with the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, the Trump administration paused its plans for higher tariffs against dozens of countries, a move that helped calm the financial markets.

If investors believed the Fed's independence to tackle inflation was compromised, that would likely push up the yields on long-dated government bonds on the assumption that long-term inflation would be higher, and put pressure on the administration.

"You can't control the bond market. And that's the moral of the story," said Swonk.

"And that's why you want an independent Fed."