The details of the back and forths in Vienna are becoming increasingly obscure, worrying those involved in the negotiations and eating at their composure.
Apprehensions are rising of an American slip up in the negotiations that could turn what should have been an effort to solve a crisis into the reason for one, fueling tensions in a region that could go up in flames at any moment. This is especially true since most of the factions have limited options and are leaning towards escalation whether or not an agreement is concluded.
Of the two opposite sides, one believes that not signing a nuclear agreement could lead to a military clash, while the other believes that signing the agreement would lead to a clash as well. Thus, the negotiations, and with them, the Middle East, have entered a stage of cautious anticipation of what could be difficult and costly outcomes.
As the negotiations continue to go back and forth, not even the concessions that both sides have made seem to have paved the way for getting the deal over the finish line.
Every response from one side leaves the other side demanding a new list of concessions, and it seems that both are approaching the red lines of this other, which could bring the negotiations back to point zero and shatter all the optimism surrounding them.
That is what happened in the past few hours, when optimism regarding the Iran response to the latest proposal Washington submitted through the European mediators was shattered by the US response to the Iranian response.
However, it is clear that Washington has taken Iran close to the furthest it would be willing to go and that its response to Tehran’s questions was not satisfactory. As a US official put it to Politico, Washington’s response to Iran did not meet Tehran’s expectations, and the US is awaiting either Tehran’s approval or to continue to apply pressure until it does.
These negotiations see a package of concessions being exchanged for a package of facilitations, but, so far, the scope and scale of US facilitation remain vague, with everything we know about them coming from Israel’s criticism. Nonetheless, it is clear that the concessions demanded by Tehran remain a stumbling block.
Last Wednesday, International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi killed any doubts that some things have yet to be ironed out. Grossi confirmed to CNN that “so far, Iran has not given us the technically credible explanations we need to explain the origin of many traces of uranium, the presence of equipment at places.”
That means that Iran has not been able to impose its terms yet and that the US did not intervene to relieve the pressure that the IAEA is applying on Iran. The Agency remains determined to continue its investigation, and this makes clear that Iran has made genuine concessions and did not link the resumption of talks with ending the investigation.
Indeed, in contrast to its media’s narrative, the continuation of the investigation is a reflection of what the NSA said about Iran making concessions on sensitive matters, not the US.
The negotiations are now caught between the costs of declaring failure and the difficulty of ensuring their success, leading to escalation.
It is clear that neither of the two sides is ready to give up the sharp objects they can strike each other with outside the negotiating table.
Washington announced it had been behind an airstrike on Iranian military facilities in Syria. In response, Tehran announced that it would be holding military maneuvers involving 150 drones in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
As for Tel Aviv, Washington’s primary ally in the region, Israeli officials have warned of the dangers of US miscalculation leading to a nuclear agreement between Iran and the major powers and that Israel would not be bound by such an agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid asked: “How is it possible to sign a deal with the Iranians that gives them a hundred billion dollar a year prize for breaking all of their commitments?”
Lapid stressed that an agreement in its current form would not meet the criteria set by US President Joe Biden himself, vowing to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state.
And so, amid this back and forth, the optimism surrounding a deal is caught between tough questions and complicated answers, and officials could seek to solve their issues outside the negotiating table.
