Majority of Presidential Terms in Lebanon End in Conflicts, Wars or Vacuum

Lebanese national flags fly at half-mast outside the presidential palace as Lebanon marks the two-year anniversary of the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, in Baabda Lebanon August 4, 2022. (Dalati & Nohra)
Lebanese national flags fly at half-mast outside the presidential palace as Lebanon marks the two-year anniversary of the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, in Baabda Lebanon August 4, 2022. (Dalati & Nohra)
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Majority of Presidential Terms in Lebanon End in Conflicts, Wars or Vacuum

Lebanese national flags fly at half-mast outside the presidential palace as Lebanon marks the two-year anniversary of the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, in Baabda Lebanon August 4, 2022. (Dalati & Nohra)
Lebanese national flags fly at half-mast outside the presidential palace as Lebanon marks the two-year anniversary of the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, in Baabda Lebanon August 4, 2022. (Dalati & Nohra)

Lebanon only twice witnessed a smooth transition of power from one president to a successor in its 79 years of independence.

Out of 12 presidents who had come to power since 1943, only twice was the transition a smooth process, underlining the extent of the complexities that have plagued the country for decades.

Presidential terms often end in conflict, vacuum or wars.

Two months before the end of President Michel Aoun’s term, vacuum appears to be the likely scenario in store.

The last time vacuum took place was in 2014 after the term of Aoun’s predecessor, Michel Suleiman, ended without political rivals agreeing to a successor. It took them over two years to agree on Aoun’s election as head of state.

The constitution stipulates that a quorum of 86 lawmakers is needed to elect a president at parliament. Of those numbers, 65 votes are needed for a candidate to be elected president.

At the current parliament, it is a hard ask for the rival parties to secure 65 votes for any candidate without them reaching a political settlement ahead of the elections.

Former minister, Professor Ibrahim Najjar told Asharq Al-Awsat that the weeks and months preceding the end of a term of a president are usually marked by “ugly practices” that spark the drive to form a new majority to replace the former one in what is seen as rotation of power.

The end of presidential terms in Lebanon have often witnessed controversies, such as foreigners being naturalized for hefty sums, the division of spoils, and preparations for family relatives to assume the political mantle.

In other words, Lebanon is a democratic state only on paper, not in practice, he added.

Furthermore, Najjar noted that ends of presidential terms in Lebanon, since the signing of the 1989 Taif Accord, have all been different.

The post-Taif period was marked by Syria’s hegemony over Lebanon. It witnessed the extension of the terms of presidents Emile Lahoud and Elias Hrawi. After the Syrian troop withdrawal in 2005, Hezbollah became the dominant player.

The Iran-backed party sought to impose Aoun as president. The period witnessed a string of political assassinations, the government headquarters in downtown Beirut were besieged by pro-Syria and Hezbollah loyalists and the parliament was suspended.

The pressure culminated in the 2008 signing of the Doha agreement that led to Michel Suleiman’s election as president instead of Aoun.

Slighted, Aoun contested Suleiman’s every move throughout his term until he was elected his successor.

His election was also an arduous task, however.

Suleiman left the presidential palace at the end of his term in 2014, but sharp political divisions hindered an agreement over his successor, leaving Lebanon in vacuum.

Aoun’s allies exerted their pressure by forcing officials to choose between heading to the “edge of hell” or the “edge of chaos”.

Revolts, vacuum and war

Since 1943 and up until the Taif, Lebanon witnessed the election of eight presidents: Beshara al-Khoury, Camille Chamoun, Fuad Chehab, Charles Helou, Suleiman Franjieh, Elias Sarkis, Bashir Gemayel and Amin Gemayel. Post-Taif, Lebanon witnessed five presidents: Rene Mouawad, Elias Hrawi, Emile Lahoud, Michel Suleiman and Michel Aoun.

Political analyst George Ghanem noted that the majority of ends of terms never witnessed a smooth transition of power.

Pre-Taif, the only smooth transition happened between Chehab and Helou, he said.

Post-Taif, the only smooth transition happened between Hrawi and Lahoud during the time of Syria’s political and security hegemony over Lebanon, he added.

Lebanon has grown accustomed for ends of presidential terms to be times of peaceful or bloody revolts, constitutional vacuum, tensions, tumult and wars, he explained.

Khoury was toppled in 1952 in a peaceful coup against the constitution. It was a period of unrest and a general strike that led to Chamoun’s election, noted Ghanem.

Chamoun, himself, was ousted in a bloody coup during which Lebanon was divided along sharp sectarian and regional lines: One camp supported Egyptian President Gamal Abdul Nasser and the other was pro-American and West.

The coup started in 1958 and only ended with Chehab assuming power, said Ghanem.

Helou’s term ended with problems with Palestinian freedom fighters. Franjieh’s term ended with the civil war, which erupted on April 13, 1975.

Sarkis’ term ended in 1982 with Israel’s invasion of Lebanon.

Bashir Gemayel was his successor and he was killed days after his election in 1982. He was succeeded by his brother Amin.

Amin’s term ended without the election of a successor. Aoun, then army commander, formed a military government that was boycotted by Muslim politicians, leading to a constitutional-legal dispute over its legitimacy, said Ghanem.

Another government, headed by Salim al-Hoss, was in place and it was seen as a representative of Muslims. Amin viewed it as illegal and unconstitutional because its actual prime minister was Rashid Karameh, who was assassinated.

That rendered the cabinet a caretaker one and Hoss was only named as its acting head.

Post-Taif

Mouawad was Lebanon’s first president to be elected post-Taif. He was elected in November 1989, following a vacuum that began with the end of Amin’s term.

Mouawad was assassinated 18 days into his tenure. He was succeeded by Hrawi.

Crisis erupted at the end of his term, which was extended for three years in 1995 through a controversial constitutional amendment that Syria is seen to have largely played a role in.

In 1998, Lahoud was elected Hrawi’s successor in a smooth process when Syria’s hegemony over Lebanon was almost at its peak. His term was supposed to end in 2004, but it was controversially extended with Syria’s blessing.

Lahoud’s term ended in 2007 a year after the 2006 July war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Lebanon at the time was sharply divided between the anti-Syria March 14 and pro-Syria March 8 camps.

March 14, along with their western and Arab allies, had been boycotting Lahoud over the extension of his term and his stances that favored Syria.

The period also witnessed a sharp divide between the March 14 and 8 camps over then Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s government.

Lahoud and his allies, notably Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, viewed it as unconstitutional after its Shiite ministers had resigned.

Lahoud’s term ended on November 24, 2007. He issued a statement implying that he was handing power over to then army commander Michel Suleiman, who never acknowledged it, said Ghanem.

Siniora’s government consequently carried on operating by issuing decrees that ultimately were not implemented due to the tensions, which peaked on May 7, 2008 when Hezbollah and its allies seized control of west Beirut and some regions of Mount Lebanon after bloody clashes that left Lebanon on the brink of war.

Arab countries, led by Qatar, soon mediated a settlement that led to Suleiman’s election as president on May 25, 2008, as part of the Doha agreement.

Ghanem remarked that Suleiman’s term effectively ended in 2011 with the collapse of the Doha agreement, eruption of the so-called Arab Spring revolts and the American withdrawal from Iraq.

The last three years of his term were marked with bombings and security tensions in Lebanon, which was on the verge of yet another civil war, he noted.

Suleiman’s term ended in 2014 with no successor due to sharp political disputes.

Over 2 years of presidential vacuum

A proposal was made to extend his term to avert the vacuum, but Aoun, who had been eyeing the presidency for years and had opposed Suleiman’s presidency, rejected the suggestion because he knew his Hezbollah allies would not go with it.

From 2014 and until 2016, Lebanon witnessed 45 calls for the election of a president. Quorum was only met when a political agreement was reached to elect Aoun, which took place in October 2016, two years and six months after Suleiman left office.

Observers believe that Lebanon is headed to a similar vacuum when Aoun’s term ends on October 31.

Ghanem said the situation in the country is different from what it was like in 2014.

Politically, the number of candidates then was limited by a few known figures. Now, no clear frontrunner, major or serious candidates have emerged.

The political forces are fragmented, he noted. The March 14 camp is no more, Iran is incapable of imposing its candidate the way Syria used to, and no candidate has the ability to garner enough votes to secure a win.

Moreover, Lebanon does not have an acting government, only a caretaker one and debate is raging over its constitutionality.

Ghanem expects vacuum to prevail and for quorum to remain unmet at the presidential elections sessions to prevent a candidate from any of the rival camps to be elected.



Israeli Soldiers, Ex-Detainees Reveal Israel’s Use of Palestinians as Human Shields in Gaza Is Widespread

This photo provided by Breaking the Silence, a whistleblower group of former Israeli soldiers, shows two soldiers behind Palestinian detainees being sent into a Gaza City-area house to clear it in 2024. (Breaking the Silence via AP)
This photo provided by Breaking the Silence, a whistleblower group of former Israeli soldiers, shows two soldiers behind Palestinian detainees being sent into a Gaza City-area house to clear it in 2024. (Breaking the Silence via AP)
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Israeli Soldiers, Ex-Detainees Reveal Israel’s Use of Palestinians as Human Shields in Gaza Is Widespread

This photo provided by Breaking the Silence, a whistleblower group of former Israeli soldiers, shows two soldiers behind Palestinian detainees being sent into a Gaza City-area house to clear it in 2024. (Breaking the Silence via AP)
This photo provided by Breaking the Silence, a whistleblower group of former Israeli soldiers, shows two soldiers behind Palestinian detainees being sent into a Gaza City-area house to clear it in 2024. (Breaking the Silence via AP)

The only times the Palestinian man wasn't bound or blindfolded, he said, was when he was used by Israeli soldiers as their human shield.

Dressed in army fatigues with a camera fixed to his forehead, Ayman Abu Hamadan was forced into houses in the Gaza Strip to make sure they were clear of bombs and gunmen, he said. When one unit finished with him, he was passed to the next.

"They beat me and told me: ‘You have no other option; do this or we'll kill you,'" the 36-year-old told The Associated Press, describing the 2 1/2 weeks he was held last summer by the Israeli military in northern Gaza.

Orders often came from the top, and at times nearly every platoon used a Palestinian to clear locations, said an Israeli officer, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.

Several Palestinians and soldiers told the AP that Israeli troops are systematically forcing Palestinians to act as human shields in Gaza, sending them into buildings and tunnels to check for explosives or fighters. The dangerous practice has become ubiquitous during 19 months of war, they said.

In response to these allegations, Israel's military says it strictly prohibits using civilians as shields, a practice it has long accused Hamas of using in Gaza. Israeli officials blame the fighters for the civilian death toll in its offensive that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.

In a statement to the AP, the military said it also bans otherwise coercing civilians to participate in operations, and "all such orders are routinely emphasized to the forces."

The military said it's investigating several cases alleging that Palestinians were involved in missions, but wouldn't provide details. It didn't answer questions about the reach of the practice or any orders from commanding officers.

The AP spoke with seven Palestinians who described being used as shields in Gaza and the occupied West Bank and with two members of Israel's military who said they engaged in the practice, which is prohibited by international law. Rights groups are ringing the alarm, saying it's become standard procedure increasingly used in the war.

"These are not isolated accounts; they point to a systemic failure and a horrifying moral collapse," said Nadav Weiman, executive director of Breaking the Silence, a whistleblower group of former Israeli soldiers that has collected testimonies about the practice from within the military. "Israel rightly condemns Hamas for using civilians as human shields, but our own soldiers describe doing the very same."

Abu Hamadan said he was detained in August after being separated from his family, and soldiers told him he'd help with a "special mission." He was forced, for 17 days, to search houses and inspect every hole in the ground for tunnels, he said.

Soldiers stood behind him and, once it was clear, entered the buildings to damage or destroy them, he said. He spent each night bound in a dark room, only to wake up and do it again.

This photo provided by Breaking the Silence, a whistleblower group of former Israeli soldiers, shows two detainees used as human shields being held inside a house in the Gaza City area in 2024. (Breaking the Silence via AP)

The use of human shields ‘caught on like fire’

Rights groups say Israel has used Palestinians as shields in Gaza and the West Bank for decades. The Supreme Court outlawed the practice in 2005. But the groups continued to document violations.

Still, experts say this war is the first time in decades the practice and the debate around it has been so widespread.

The two Israeli soldiers who spoke to the AP and a third who provided testimony to Breaking the Silence said commanders were aware of the use of human shields and tolerated it, with some giving orders to do so. Some said it was referred to as the "mosquito protocol" and that Palestinians were also referred to as "wasps" and other dehumanizing terms.

The soldiers, who said they're no longer serving in Gaza, said the practice sped up operations, saved ammunition, and spared combat dogs from injury or death.

The soldiers said they first became aware human shields were being used shortly after the war erupted on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, and that it became widespread by the middle of 2024. Orders to "bring a mosquito" often came via radio, they said — shorthand everyone understood. Soldiers acted on commanding officers' orders, according to the officer who spoke to the AP.

He said that by the end of his nine months in Gaza, every infantry unit used a Palestinian to clear houses before entering.

"Once this idea was initiated, it caught on like fire in a field," the 26-year-old said. "People saw how effective and easy it was."

He described a 2024 planning meeting where a brigade commander presented to the division commander a slide reading "get a mosquito" and a suggestion they might "just catch one off the streets."

The officer wrote two incident reports to the brigade commander detailing the use of human shields, reports that would have been escalated to the division chief, he said. The military said it had no comment when asked whether it received them.

One report documented the accidental killing of a Palestinian, he said troops didn't realize another unit was using him as a shield and shot him as he ran into a house. The officer recommended the Palestinians be dressed in army clothes to avoid misidentification.

He said he knew of at least one other Palestinian who died while used as a shield; he passed out in a tunnel.

Troops unsuccessfully pushed back, a sergeant says

Convincing soldiers to operate lawfully when they see their enemy using questionable practices is difficult, said Michael Schmitt, a distinguished professor of international law at the US Military Academy at West Point. Israeli officials and other observers say Hamas uses civilians as shields as it embeds itself in communities, hiding fighters in hospitals and schools.

"It’s really a heavy lift to look at your own soldiers and say you have to comply," Schmitt said.

One soldier told the AP his unit tried to refuse to use human shields in mid-2024 but were told they had no choice, with a high-ranking officer saying they shouldn’t worry about international humanitarian law.

The sergeant, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal, said the troops used a 16-year-old and a 30-year-old for a few days.

The boy shook constantly, he said, and both repeated "Rafah, Rafah" — Gaza’s southernmost city, where more than 1 million Palestinians had fled from fighting elsewhere at that point in the war.

It seemed they were begging to be freed, the sergeant said.

‘I have children’

Masoud Abu Saeed said he was used as a shield for two weeks in March 2024 in the southern city of Khan Younis.

"This is extremely dangerous," he recounted telling a soldier. "I have children and want to reunite with them."

The 36-year-old said he was forced into houses, buildings and a hospital to dig up suspected tunnels and clear areas. He said he wore a first-responder vest for easy identification, carrying a phone, hammer and chain cutters.

During one operation, he bumped into his brother, used as a shield by another unit, he said.

They hugged. "I thought Israel's army had executed him," he said.

Palestinians also report being used as shields in the West Bank.

Hazar Estity said soldiers took her Jenin refugee camp home in November, forcing her to film inside several apartments and clear them before troops entered.

She said she pleaded to return to her 21-month-old son, but soldiers didn't listen.

"I was most afraid that they would kill me," she said. "And that I wouldn’t see my son again."