Oil Price Dips as Dollar Strengthens, Demand Weakens

Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
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Oil Price Dips as Dollar Strengthens, Demand Weakens

Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo
Storage tanks are seen at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery, which processes domestic & imported crude oil into California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, CARB diesel fuel, and other petroleum products, in Carson, California, US, March 11, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo

Oil prices retreated slightly on Thursday after gaining more than $3 in the prior session, with a strong dollar capping oil demand from buyers using other currencies and concerns over the faltering economic outlook clouding market sentiment.

Brent crude futures fell 41 cents, or 0.5%, to $88.91 per barrel by 0337 GMT while US crude futures dropped by 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.80.

Both benchmarks had rebounded in the prior two sessions after reaching nine-month lows this week after a temporary dive in the dollar index and a larger-than-expected drawdown of US fuel inventory raised hopes of a consumer demand recovery.

However, the dollar index trended upward again on Thursday, dampening investor risk appetite and stoking fears of a global recession.

The Bank of England said it is committed to buying as many long-dated government bonds, know as gilts, as needed between Wednesday and Oct. 14 to stabilize its currency after the British government's budgetary plans announced last week caused the sterling to tumble.

Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast on Tuesday, citing expectations of weaker demand and a stronger US dollar, but said global supply disappointments reinforced its long-term bullish outlook.

In China, the world's biggest crude oil importer, travel during the week-long national holiday is set to hit the lowest level in years as Beijing's persistent zero-COVID rules prompt people to stay at home and economic woes dampen spending.

Citi economists have lowered their China GDP forecast from 5% year-on-year growth to 4.6% for the fourth quarter of 2022, Reuters reported.

"Stringent zero-COVID measures and a weak property sector continue to cloud growth prospects," Citi analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday.

On the other side of the world, the European Union proposed a new round of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, including tighter trade restrictions, more individual blacklistings and an oil price cap for third countries.

But the bloc's 27 member countries will need to overcome their own differences to implement them.



Oil Climbs on Supply Worries, Trump Tariffs Check Gains

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
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Oil Climbs on Supply Worries, Trump Tariffs Check Gains

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday amid concerns over Russian and Iranian oil supply and sanctions threats despite worries that escalating trade tariffs could dampen global economic growth.

Brent crude futures were up $1.2, or 1.6%, at $77.07 a barrel by 1313 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.11 or 1.5% to $73.43.

Both contracts posted gains of near 2% in the prior session after three weekly losses in a row, Reuters reported.

"With the US bearing down on Iranian exports and sanctions still biting into Russian flows, Asian crude grades remain firm and underpin the rally from yesterday," PVM oil analyst John Evans said.

Shipping of Russian oil to China and India, the world's major crude oil importers, has been significantly disrupted by US sanctions last month targeting tankers, producers and insurers.

Adding to supply jitters are US sanctions on networks shipping Iranian oil to China after President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" on Iranian oil exports last week.

But countering the price gains was the latest tariff by Trump which could dampen global growth and energy demand.

Trump on Monday substantially raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US to 25% "without exceptions or exemptions" to aid the struggling industries that could increase the risk of a multi-front trade war.

The tariff will hit millions of tons of steel and aluminium imports from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and other countries.

"Tariffs and counter-tariffs have the potential to weigh on the oil intensive part of the global economy in particular, creating uncertainty over demand," Morgan Stanley said in a note on Monday.

"However, we think this backdrop will probably also cause OPEC+ to extend current production quotas once again, which would solve for a balanced market in [the second half of 2025]", the bank added.

Trump last week introduced 10% additional tariffs on China, for which Beijing retaliated with its own levies on US imports, including a 10% duty on crude.

Also weighing on crude demand, the US Federal Reserve will wait until the next quarter before cutting rates again, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll who previously expected a March cut.

The Fed faces the threat of rising inflation under Trump's policies. Keeping rates at a higher level could limit economic growth, which would impact oil demand growth.

US crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, while distillate inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The poll was conducted ahead of weekly reports from industry group, the American Petroleum Institute, due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday and an Energy Information Administration report due on Wednesday.