Flaming conflicts have always ailed the world. Most of these disputes have erupted in the heart of the continents of the Old World (Asia, Africa, and Europe), and a few of them have affected the New World.
Today, the world stands afraid of a third world war raging out of escalated fighting in Ukraine. At the same time, there are other conflicts that are just as violent but have figured lower on the agenda of global concerns which is chiefly preoccupied with the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Mounting tensions continue to rage on the sides of the global map, and at the heart of it is the Middle East, which has the lion’s share of raging conflicts.
The Global Conflict Tracker of the US-based Council of Foreign Relations has identified 27 hot spots of live conflict that are still raging worldwide in 2022. The tracker categorizes conflict into three groups: “worsening,” “unchanging,” and “improving.”
Right now, there’s not a single conflict described as “improving.”
According to international experts and political analysts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, the repercussions of raging conflicts in and around the Middle East seem more complex than many imagine.
This can be traced back to these tensions attracting interference from regional and international forces that seek managing their interests via local proxies. Not only does foreign interference prolong these conflicts, but it also constantly threatens to have them spill over to neighboring regions, doubling their risk and threat.
A report prepared by the International Crisis Group revealed that six out of ten world conflicts in 2022 are located within the Middle East region.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, upheaval in Yemen, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Iran as well as the spread of terrorism in Africa make the top of the list of the most prominent conflicts during 2022. Hot conflicts in Ukraine, Myanmar, China, Taiwan, and Haiti also make the list, according to the report.
Conflict hotspots in the Middle East aren’t exclusive to the Arab region. The African continent also seems to be a place for both risk and opportunity. A 2021 report prepared by the US-based think tank, the Fund for Peace, said that 11 of the 15 most fragile countries in the world are in Africa.
The slow collapse of states in the Sahel-Saharan region, the expansion of jihadist terrorist groups from Mali to neighboring countries, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, and turmoil following military coups in Mali, Chad and Guinea, put Africa at the heart of ever raging conflicts.
If we take into consideration the civil war in Ethiopia, the African “arc of conflicts” expands to include the east and west of the continent.
The Ethiopian conflict appears to be on the brink of the abyss. Its adverse effects have impacted the unity of the state and the safety of the countries of the region.
“Ethiopia is a large and important country in the region, and it has common borders with several countries,” affirmed International Crisis Group senior analyst William Davidson.
“The absence of strong and stable governments in the country often pushes matters towards volatility, which is reflected in the relations of Addis Ababa with the countries of the region,” explained Davidson to Asharq Al-Awsat.
“Internal crises and conflicts in Ethiopia have cast a shadow over the country’s relations with Egypt and Sudan,” added Davidson.
Ethiopia’s focus on taking vital diplomatic steps to reach a solution to the dispute with Cairo and Khartoum over the Renaissance Dam “is clearly declining with the increasing complexity of the internal crisis.”
The Ethiopian leadership appears to be “distracted” due to the security challenges and internal divisions that have escalated in the recent period, noted Davidson.
This prompted the government to “focus sometimes on the external dimension, blaming Egypt and Sudan to ease the pressures associated with the escalating internal crises.”
In such a case, Ethiopia’s internal crisis has become a key obstacle preventing an agreement between the three countries.
The protracted conflict in Ethiopia and its expansion to neighboring countries may produce serious repercussions throughout the Red Sea and Horn of Africa regions, according to Davidson.
Moreover, Davidson voiced his fears towards the Ethiopian crisis potentially leading to more disintegration and the emergence of more economic and social problems. This could make room for the activity of terrorist groups and irregular actors.
The crises in Syria and Libya represent another example of the overlap between internal and external conflicts, according to Maj. Gen. Sayed Ghoneim.
“It is absurd to imagine that there are cosmic conspiracies running the hot conflicts in the world,” Ghoneim told Asharq Al-Awsat.
“Unfortunately, the theatre of conflict has expanded in our Arab region to include 5 countries: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Lebanon,” noted Ghoneim, adding that there are both Arab and non-Arab actors involved in those countries.
Ghoneim believes that many hotbeds of conflict in and around the Arab region attract the attention of regional and international powers in a remarkable way.
He considered this attraction as “natural” given the region’s global significance at the level of international energy and navigation security.
According to Ghoneim, the region oversees the most important straits that control the movement of global trade. Moreover, the region is home to some of the world’s largest oil and gas deposits.
Beyond resources and geography, the region is known for having one of the oldest live conflicts with no prospect for a solution soon. It is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
“It is inconceivable that stability will occur in the region in light of the continuation of the Israeli occupation and its persistent violations of international law, treaties and covenants,” said Palestinian researcher Jihad al-Haziran.
Haziran believes that the international will of actors such as the US and some European countries could determine launching a successful peace track for Israelis and Palestinians.
“It seems that the policy of double standards is still in control as these forces provide legal and political cover for the Israeli occupation, through international mechanisms, including the right of veto,” added Haziran.
These facts raise more questions about the price the world is paying because of these flaming conflicts and raise more questions about the efficacy of the solutions being proposed.
