Crisis-hit Iraq Makes Latest Bid to Elect President

Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File
Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File
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Crisis-hit Iraq Makes Latest Bid to Elect President

Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File
Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File

Lawmakers in crisis-hit Iraq meet Thursday for their fourth attempt this year to elect a state president and break a year-long gridlock marred by deadly violence that has deepened economic woes.

Oil-rich Iraq has yet to form a new government after general elections more than a year ago that were brought forward by a wave of mass protests against endemic corruption, rampant unemployment and decaying infrastructure, AFP said.

This week, the United Nations mission said that "the protracted crisis is breeding further instability" in the war-scarred country, warning of "divisive politics, generating bitter public disillusion".

Parliament is due to convene from 11:00 am (0800 GMT) in Baghdad's Green Zone, the capital's fortified government and diplomatic district that was recently the site of large protest camps set up by rival factions.

Lawmakers in the past three failed attempts to elect a new head of state, in February and March, did not even reach the required two-thirds threshold -- 220 out of 329 -- for a quorum.

Democratic institutions built since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein remain fragile, and neighboring Iran wields major influence.

For the past year, Iraq has not only been without a new government, but also without a state budget, locking up billions in oil revenues and obstructing much-needed reforms and infrastructure projects.

- 30 candidates, three front runners -
Iraq's rival Shiite Muslim political factions have been vying for influence and the right to select a new premier and form a government, with Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi left in charge in a caretaker capacity.

On one hand is the fiery cleric Moqtada Sadr, who wants parliament dissolved and new elections.

On the other sits the Coordination Framework, an alliance of pro-Iran Shiite factions -- including former paramilitaries -- that wants a new government before fresh elections are held.

The standoff has seen both sides set up protest camps, and at times has sparked deadly street clashes in Baghdad.

Tensions boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in battles between Iran-backed factions and the army.

The largely honorific post of Iraqi president is traditionally reserved for a Kurd.

It generally goes to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), while the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) keeps control over the affairs of autonomous Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

However, the KDP is also eyeing the presidency and could present its own candidate.

"It is still not clear that the Kurdish parties have come to an agreement on a president," said Hamzeh Hadad, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Among the 30 candidates, top contenders include the incumbent, President Barham Saleh of the PUK, aged 61, and current Kurdistan Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed of the KDP, aged 54.

Abdel Latif Rashid, aged 78, a former water resources minister and ex-PUK leader running as an independent, has been suggested as a potential consensus candidate.

But the race remains open.

"Any president, that is not the strongest candidate of either the two main Kurdish parties will struggle to make a mark in Baghdad," said analyst Lahib Higel from the International Crisis Group.

- Next step, new PM -
Once elected, the president will appoint a prime minister -– chosen by the largest coalition in parliament –- who will then begin arduous negotiations to choose their cabinet.

"What is expected is that whoever is chosen, will designate a prime minister right away to form a government," said Hadad.

Key runners for prime minister are the Coordination Framework's candidate, former minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, 52.

Hadad believes Sudani is the most likely to be premier, but noted that "anything can change in Iraqi politics till the last minute".

The pro-Iran Coordination Framework draws together the Fatah alliance and lawmakers from the party of Sadr's longtime foe, former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki.

When Sudani was proposed in July, it sparked mass protests outraged Sadr supporters, who breached the Green Zone and stormed parliament.



Franjieh Withdraws from Lebanon’s Presidential Race, Backs Army Commander

 People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
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Franjieh Withdraws from Lebanon’s Presidential Race, Backs Army Commander

 People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)
People look at a ballot box displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. (Reuters)

Head of the Marada Movement Suleiman Franjieh announced on Wednesday that he was withdrawing from Lebanon’s presidential election and backing the candidacy of army commander Joseph Aoun.

Lebanon is holding the much-awaited election on Thursday.

In a post on the X platform, Franjieh said: "Now that the conditions are ripe for the election of a president tomorrow, I am withdrawing my candidacy, which has never been an obstacle in the electoral process."

He added that Aoun "enjoys the qualities that would preserve the standing of the country’s top post."

He hoped "the nation would overcome this stage with unity, diligence and responsibility."

Parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel's war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group's ally Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria.

The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country's sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022. The former president is not related to army commander Aoun.

None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate. The vote marks the first test of Lebanon's power balance since the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah - which propelled its then Christian ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 - emerged badly pummeled from the war with Israel.

The Lebanese parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)

It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.

Before Franjieh withdrew from the race and reflecting the shifts, Hezbollah and its ally the Shiite Amal Movement led by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri dropped their insistence on Franjieh, their declared candidate for the last two years, and said they are ready to go with a less divisive figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said.

Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun - said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy US approval - Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari - head of General Security, a state security agency.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he felt happy because "God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president", according to a statement from his office.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was "a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace" and also for Lebanon's economic and social recovery.

However, two of the sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in a second round.

Rice is thrown on Newly-appointed General Joseph Aoun (C) as army commander, upon his arrival at his family's house in Sin El Fil, northeast of Beirut, Lebanon March 8, 2017. (Reuters)

‘National awakening’

Joseph Aoun would still need 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state employee, Berri has said.

A State Department spokesperson said it was "up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor".

"We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions," the spokesperson said.

Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last week there was "no veto" on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States, will not support him.

Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.

Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild. Much of the damage is in Shiite majority areas.

Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad's ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.

Lebanon's Maronite Bishops called on lawmakers to elect a president, urging a "national awakening".