What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
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What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

Iraqi lawmakers have elected a new president who swiftly named a prime minister in the hope of ending a year of political gridlock and deadly violence.

But major challenges lie ahead for the crisis-hit nation.

How will government talks play out?

Iraq's parliament, dominated by the pro-Iran Coordination Framework of Shiite factions, elected on Thursday a new president, 78-year-old Kurdish former minister Abdul Latif Rashid.

The new head of state moved immediately to task Shiite politician Mohammad Shia al-Sudani with forming a government, capping a whole year of deadlock between major parties since Iraq last went to the polls in October 2021.

In multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Iraq, where political alliances and coalitions constantly shift, divisions between feuding factions might resurface and complicate Sudani's efforts in the 30 days afforded to him to form a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament.

In the past, constitutional deadlines have been routinely missed amid protracted political wrangling.

"Once we start discussing who becomes minister, but even more critically who gains more leverage over the senior civil service, government agencies, state coffers -- that's when we will continue to see the fragmentation and stalemate play out," said Renad Mansour of British think-tank Chatham House.

He explained that Iraq is headed for "another power-sharing government", where political parties will "try and divide the country's wealth".

And the stakes are high. A colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports are locked up in the central bank's coffers.

The money can help rebuild infrastructure in the war-ravaged country, but it can only be invested after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the government, once formed.

What will Sadr do?

The future government's hands may be tied by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of his supporters with a single tweet.

In June, he had ordered the 73 lawmakers in his bloc to resign, leaving parliament in the hands of the rival Coordination Framework, which now controls 138 out of 329 seats in the legislature.

This pro-Iranian alliance includes the political arm of the former paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as Sadr's longtime rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Political analyst Ali al-Baidar noted the Sadrist movement has kept uncharacteristically "quiet".

It may be that their leader has been "giving the political forces a chance", but it could also be the result of "an agreement offering the movement some" government positions in return for their tacit approval of Sudani's nomination, Baidar said.

Tensions between the two rival Shiite camps boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in clashes with Iran-backed factions and the army in Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions.

"It remains a precarious state of affairs," Mansour said.

"Sadr will remain on the margins of the political scene, trying to disrupt and use protests to replace the political capital" he lost in parliament, the researcher added.

Sadr is "hoping to force an early election using controlled instability as he always has, to maintain his power and leverage in negotiations.

"But mistakes in the past few months have... put him in a difficult bargaining position," Mansour continued.

Is there hope for change?

Political analyst Baidar said the "consensus" on Rashid's appointment means a government will be formed relatively easily, but stressed the "colossal tasks" ahead.

Nearly four out of 10 young Iraqis are unemployed and one-third of the oil-rich country's population of 42 million lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.

Prime minister-designate Sudani vowed on Thursday to push through "economic reforms" that would revitalize Iraq's industry, agriculture and private sector.

He also promised to provide young Iraqis "employment opportunities and housing".

According to Baidar, a "growing" global interest in Iraqi politics -- specifically from Washington, Paris and London -- could "force politicians to perform better".

"While Iraq is by no means a poor country, private and partisan interests conspire to divert resources away from critical investment in national development," UN envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert told the Security Council last week.

"Iraq's political and governance system ignores the needs of the Iraqi people," she charged.

"Pervasive corruption is a major root cause of Iraqi dysfunctionality. And frankly, no leader can claim to be shielded from it."

A pessimistic Mansour said "public life will remain as it is".

"People will still not have their basic rights, water, healthcare, electricity."



UNRWA, a Lifeline for Palestinians amid Decades of Conflict

FILE - Palestinian children who fled with their parents from their houses in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh, gather in the backyard of an UNRWA school, in Sidon, Lebanon, Sept. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari, File)
FILE - Palestinian children who fled with their parents from their houses in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh, gather in the backyard of an UNRWA school, in Sidon, Lebanon, Sept. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari, File)
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UNRWA, a Lifeline for Palestinians amid Decades of Conflict

FILE - Palestinian children who fled with their parents from their houses in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh, gather in the backyard of an UNRWA school, in Sidon, Lebanon, Sept. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari, File)
FILE - Palestinian children who fled with their parents from their houses in the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein el-Hilweh, gather in the backyard of an UNRWA school, in Sidon, Lebanon, Sept. 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari, File)

The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, whose operations in Israel were banned by the Israeli parliament on Monday, is seen by some as an "irreplaceable" humanitarian lifeline in Gaza, but as an accomplice of Hamas by others.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has for more than seven decades provided essential aid and assistance to Palestinian refugees, AFP reported.
The agency has also long been a lightening rod for harsh Israeli criticism, which has ramped up dramatically since the start of the war in Gaza, following Hamas's deadly October 7 attacks last year.
UNRWA, which coordinates nearly all aid to Gaza, has seen more than 220 of its staff killed in the war there -- even as it has faced dramatic funding cuts and calls for its dismantlement amid Israeli accusations that some of its workers took part in the October 7 attack.
Created in wake of war
UNRWA was established in December 1949 by the UN General Assembly in the wake of the first Arab-Israeli conflict following Israel's creation in May 1948.
The agency, which began its operations on May 1, 1950, was tasked with assisting some 750,000 Palestinians who had been expelled during the war.
It was supposed to be a short-term fix, but in the absence of a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem, the General Assembly has repeatedly renewed UNRWA's mandate, most recently extending it until June 30, 2026.
Millions of refugees
The number of Palestinian refugees under its charge has meanwhile ballooned to nearly six million across Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.
Palestinian refugees are defined as "persons whose normal place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict".
Their descendents also have refugee status.
Operations
UNRWA is unique among UN organizations in its direct service delivery model, and is the main provider of basic public services, including education, healthcare, and social services for registered Palestinian refugees.
It employs more than 30,000 people, mainly Palestinian refugees and a small number of international staff.
The organization counts 58 official refugee camps and runs more than 700 schools for over 540,000 students.
It also runs 141 primary healthcare facilities, with nearly seven million patient visits each year, and provides emergency food and cash assistance to some 1.8 million people.
UNRWA in Gaza
In the Gaza Strip, controlled by Hamas since 2007, the humanitarian situation was already critical before the war between Israel and Hamas began last October, with more than 80 percent of the population living below the poverty line.
The territory, squeezed between Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea, counts eight camps and around 1.7 million refugees, the overwhelming majority of the population of 2.4 million, according to the UN.
The situation has spiraled into catastrophe following Hamas's deadly attack inside Israel on October 7, 2023.
Israel's retaliatory military offensive has killed more than 43,000 people, mostly civilians, according to figures from the territory's health ministry, deemed reliable by the UN.
Two-thirds of buildings have been damaged and nearly the entire population of Gaza has been displaced, many of them multiple times, the UN says.
"In the midst of all the upheaval, UNRWA, more than ever, is indispensable. UNRWA, more than ever, is irreplaceable," UN chief Antonio Guterres has said.
UNRWA, which employs some 13,000 people in Gaza, has seen two-thirds of its facilities there damaged or destroyed.
Israeli criticism
Israel has long been harshly critical of UNRWA, alleging it is perpetuating the Palestinian refugee problem and that its schools use textbooks that promote hatred of Israel.
Since October 7, the criticism has ballooned, targeting UNRWA in Gaza especially.
In January, Israel accused a dozen of UNRWA's Gaza employees of involvement in the October 7 attack by Hamas.
A series of probes found some "neutrality related issues" at UNRWA, and determined that nine employees "may have been involved" in the October 7 attack, but found no evidence for Israel's chief allegations.
The agency, which traditionally has been funded almost exclusively through voluntary contributions from governments, was plunged into crisis as a string of nations halted their backing over Israel's allegations.
Most donors have since resumed funding.
The barrage of accusations has meanwhile continued, with Israel alleging UNRWA employs "hundreds of Hamas members and even military wing operatives" in Gaza.
Despite objections from the United States and warnings from the UN Security Council, Israeli lawmakers on Monday overwhelmingly passed a bill banning UNRWA from working in Israel and occupied east Jerusalem.