Bashir's Supporters Warn Burhan, Demand Expelling UN Envoy in Sudan

Broad Islamic Trend protests in Khartoum (AFP)
Broad Islamic Trend protests in Khartoum (AFP)
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Bashir's Supporters Warn Burhan, Demand Expelling UN Envoy in Sudan

Broad Islamic Trend protests in Khartoum (AFP)
Broad Islamic Trend protests in Khartoum (AFP)

Several thousand supporters of the ousted Sudanese President , Omar al-Bashir, and the disbanded National Congress Party (NCP) gathered outside the UN Integrated Transition Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) headquarters, demanding the expulsion of its president Volker Perthes.

They warned the head of the Sovereign Council, Lt-Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against signing a prospective bilateral settlement with the "Freedom and Change" opposition coalition, according to a consensus draft constitution.

About 4,000 Muslim Brotherhood supporters affiliated with the Broad Islamic Trend and the initiative of religious leader al-Tayeb al-Jid, gathered outside the mission's headquarters to protest foreign interference in the country's internal affairs.

They waved banners against foreign intervention and the QUAD mechanism, which includes the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The protesters also claimed that the draft constitution prepared by the Bar Association and agreed upon by various political forces is imported and imposed on the Sudanese.

Speakers at the protest threatened the head of the UN mission and demanded he leaves the country. One speaker warned Burhan against signing a bilateral agreement with the opposition coalition and demanded he resigns.

Meanwhile, police forces stationed near the road entrance leading to UNITMAS headquarters closed the road from both sides. They allowed the protesters, who came by bus, to reach the place without any obstacles, unlike other opposition protests who faced violence.

Participants at the protest announced the Broad Islamic Trend readiness, along with the capital residents, to completely cordon Khartoum if any settlement is declared between the Freedom and Change alliance and the military component.

Broad Islamic Trend includes ten factions that signed a charter in April to create organizational integration.

Since October 2021, hundreds of thousands of protesters demanded the return of the civilian transition, which prevented the military leadership from implementing its pledges.

Last July, Burhan announced the withdrawal of the armed forces from the political process and called on civilians to agree on the formation of a civilian government, which the opposition and the civil movement considered a "maneuver" to stay in power.

The Islamist demonstrations come against the backdrop of the announcement that an agreement will be reached between Freedom and Change and the military to form a civilian government. They also agreed that Burhan and his deputy would be members of the Security and Defense Council headed by the Prime Minister.

The Islamists considered the agreement a reversion to the military's position, threatening their existence and privileges.

The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) welcomed the measures taken by the competent authorities to secure the October 29 demonstrations and demanded that everyone be granted the right to peaceful assembly without exception or discrimination.

In a statement obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, OHCHR praised the measures, including ensuring the flow of traffic in Khartoum and access to the Internet.

It condemned the ongoing hate speech and warned against threatening international public figures, saying it is a crime under international humanitarian law.

The Commission considered the threats against Perthes a crime and called on the government to take the necessary measures to stop such rhetoric and hold the perpetrators accountable.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”