Asian Equities, Oil Prices Dragged by Recession Fears

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
TT

Asian Equities, Oil Prices Dragged by Recession Fears

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP

Asian investors extended a sell-off across global markets Wednesday while oil held losses on growing fears Federal Reserve monetary tightening will tip the US economy into recession.

The drop followed another day deep in the red for New York's three main indexes after the heads of Wall Street's leading banks warned of tough times ahead in 2023, AFP said.

JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon tipped a "mild to hard recession" and Goldman Sachs' David Solomon said jobs and pay would be hit, while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were also uneasy about the outlook.

The comments added to the downbeat mood that has coursed through trading floors at the start of the week, after forecast-beating reports on jobs and the giant US services sector fanned worries the Fed will have to push interest rates higher than hoped.

Markets had been rising healthily ahead of Friday's employment figures after a weaker-than-expected inflation reading for October suggested the almost year-long tightening campaign was finally affecting prices.

"Any hopes that the Fed would turn more dovish in the months ahead have been dashed significantly as the vast US services industry is where sticky inflation hangs out," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

He added that the latest readings suggest rates will go above five percent before the Fed stops hiking, while several observers have suggested they will not be reduced until 2024.

In early trade, Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Manila and Jakarta were all down. However, Hong Kong, which has been the standout performer in recent weeks, clipped slightly higher.

But Lauren Goodwin, at New York Life Investments, saw further pain ahead for markets.

"We have not yet seen the bottom on equity prices," she said, according to Bloomberg News. "While this phase of equity market volatility is likely to end in the next few months, earnings have not yet adapted to a recessionary environment."

The sombre outlook overshadowed hopes that China's moves to wind back some of its harsh Covid rules will kickstart the world's number two economy, which has been battered this year by months of lockdowns and other containment measures.

It also kept oil prices at lows not seen for around a year as demand expectations tumble.

Brent on Tuesday sank below $80 for the first time since January, while WTI was at its lowest since December, having plunged from the 14-year highs of around $140 touched in March after Russia invaded Ukraine. Both contracts were barely moved in Asian trade.

"The crude demand outlook is getting crushed as we are in a slowdown basically across all the major economies," said OANDA's Edward Moya.

"Supplies seem plentiful over the near term and that has everyone hesitating on what was one of the easiest trades of the year."

- Key figures around 0230 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.5 percent at 27,756.94 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 19,529.70

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,201.71

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0465 from $1.0470 on Tuesday

Dollar/yen: UP at 137.11 yen from 137.04 yen

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2135 from $1.2133

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.24 pence from 86.26 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.1 percent at $74.16 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.2 percent at $79.48 per barrel

New York - Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 33,596.34 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 7,521.39 (close)



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
TT

Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.