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Lebanon’s FPM Torn Between Bassil’s Ambitions, Hezbollah’s Pressure 

Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)
Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)
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Lebanon’s FPM Torn Between Bassil’s Ambitions, Hezbollah’s Pressure 

Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)
Lebanese MPs speak prior to the start of the ninth parliamentary session to elect a new president of Lebanon, at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 December 2022. (EPA)

A number of lawmakers from Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) have acknowledged that the party is in “crisis” over the election of a new president of the republic. 

FPM MPs have submitted blank votes in eight electoral sessions. Tensions reached new heights during the ninth session amid disputes between the FPM, headed by MP Gebran Bassil, and its ally Hezbollah. 

The dispute revolves around Hezbollah ministers taking part in a recent government session in spite of the FPM’s disapproval. The FPM believes that the cabinet cannot convene given that it is operating in a caretaker capacity. 

The FPM consequently retaliated to Hezbollah at the ninth electoral session. Instead of submitting the usual blank votes, some MPs wrote down the name Badri Daher, the former customs chief and close associate of the FPM who has been held in connection to the 2020 Beirut port blast, and others wrote down the name “Michel” and others “Mouawad”, knowing that the ballots would be considered void. 

Michel Mouawad, an opponent of Hezbollah, is running for president. 

Speaking on condition of anonymity, one FPM MP told Asharq Al-Awsat that the movement was in crisis over the presidential elections. 

He stressed that the FPM will not support the nomination of neither Marada movement leader Suleiman Franjieh, who is being backed by Hezbollah, nor Mouawad. 

Any other option besides the blank ballot is “useless as long we can’t secure the right number of votes to elect a candidate,” he added. 

“We will come up with a new option during the next electoral session,” he stated. 

The next session is set for Thursday. 

“We are confident that this crisis can only be resolved through agreement,” added the MP. 

The “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, headed by Berri, have both been backing Franjieh’s candidacy and pressuring Bassil to go ahead with their choice. 

Bassil, however, has been rejecting their proposal for numerous considerations, chiefly his yet undeclared ambition to run for president. 

Sources from the FPM told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Bassil believes he is the most deserving of the position because he boasts the largest bloc at parliament.” 

“He will not so easily relinquish his belief that a strong candidate must become president, meaning a figure who enjoys a large popular and parliamentary base,” they explained. 

Bassil is “looking to local and foreign changes that may take place in the coming months that may turn the elections in his favor,” they revealed. 

Moreover, the MP is unlikely to back the nomination of army commander Joseph Aoun given the sharp disputes that had erupted between them during the term of former President Michel Aoun, founder of the FPM and Bassil’s father-in-law. 

Bassil had criticized how the military had managed the situation on the ground during the 2019 anti-government protests. 

Some MPs and prominent FPM figures are leaning towards nominating other figures from the movement, such as MPs Alain Aoun, Ibrahim Kanaan and Nada al-Boustani, as president. 

Bassil has not backed the proposal, saying he would rather support a consensus figure, such as former minister Ziad Baroud, should the FPM choose to stop submitting blank votes. 

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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.