Turkish Mobilization in Northern Syria Signals Stalled Normalization with Syrian Regime

Türkiye sent reinforcements to Aleppo on December 28 (Turkish T24 website)
Türkiye sent reinforcements to Aleppo on December 28 (Turkish T24 website)
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Turkish Mobilization in Northern Syria Signals Stalled Normalization with Syrian Regime

Türkiye sent reinforcements to Aleppo on December 28 (Turkish T24 website)
Türkiye sent reinforcements to Aleppo on December 28 (Turkish T24 website)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a phone call conversation on Monday, discussed developments in Syria.

Turkish and Iranian media reported that Iran’s top diplomat, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, might be visiting Ankara on Tuesday to meet with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu.

Meanwhile, developments in northern Syria reflected a divergence in the positions of Türkiye and the Syrian regime regarding the path of normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus.

In the last few days, Damascus put forward conditions for continuing talks. Ankara, for its part, examined the possibility of holding a new meeting for the Turkish, Syrian, and Russian defense ministers before the talks of foreign ministers, which was postponed from January to mid-February.

Concurrently, Türkiye resumed sending military reinforcements to its areas of control in Syria. Ankara sent back up to its loyalist factions in Aleppo. Recipients of the support included the Syrian National Army.

Turkish forces also established a helipad near a base for its forces in the town of Balyoun, which is nestled within the de-escalation zone in Idlib.

At the same time, Syrian regime attacks against Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions continued to escalate in north and northeastern Syria.

Additionally, a Turkish military convoy entered the city of al-Bab east of Aleppo through al-Rai crossing north of the governorate.

The convoy stopped in Jabal Aqeel region to load military equipment, personnel carriers, and ammunition. It was accompanied by military vehicles belonging to the Turkish-backed Sultan Murad faction, according to a source from the opposition.

This is taking place despite efforts paid towards thawing ties between Syria and Turkey following a meeting in Moscow in late December last year that brought together ministers of defense of Syria, Russia, and Turkey.

The latest reinforcements sent by the Turkish army to Idlib, northwestern Syria, coincided with the meeting of the defense ministers.

Only a day before dispatching the convoy to al-Bab, Ibrahim Kalin, spokesman and foreign policy adviser for Erdogan, affirmed that a ground military operation targeting SDF sites in northern Syria is still an option on Ankara’s table.

Kalin said that attacking the SDF remains a viable option so long that Washington and Moscow fail to fulfill their pledges by virtue of which Türkiye froze its 2019 offensive into northeastern Syria, code-named Operation Peace Spring.

In exchange for stopping attacks on SDF positions east of the Euphrates, Türkiye was promised that SDF elements would be removed 30 km away from Turkish borders.

Recent days have witnessed an escalation of confrontations between the areas of deployment of the Turkish forces and their allied factions, and the areas of the regime forces and SDF.

The stepped-up dispute comes in parallel with talk about preparing for a meeting of the foreign ministers of Türkiye, Syria and Russia.

The top diplomats are supposed to meet within the framework of the second phase of normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus. But the foreign ministers’ meeting has been stalled and replaced by Ankara’s announcement of holding a second meeting of defense ministers.

A Turkish soldier died of wounds sustained in an attack on a Turkish base in Aleppo’s countryside, the Turkish defense ministry announced on Sunday.

The ministry posted video footage on Twitter showing the bombing of SDF sites in northern Syria in response to the attack on the Turkish base. At least 11 SDF elements were killed in the retaliatory attack.

Since May last year, Türkiye has repeatedly threatened to launch a military operation that targets SDF sites in Manbij, Tal Rifaat and Ain al-Arab (Kobani) to remove the Kurdish forces from its borders.

Besides securing borders by pushing Kurdish forces 30km deeper into Syrian territory, Türkiye wants to complete the establishment of safe zones to accommodate Syrian refugees.



Lebanon Military Says One Soldier Killed, 18 Hurt in Israeli Strike on Army Center

Lebanese army soldiers and people stand at the site of an Israeli strike in the town of Baaloul, in the western Bekaa Valley, Lebanon October 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maher Abou Taleb
Lebanese army soldiers and people stand at the site of an Israeli strike in the town of Baaloul, in the western Bekaa Valley, Lebanon October 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maher Abou Taleb
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Lebanon Military Says One Soldier Killed, 18 Hurt in Israeli Strike on Army Center

Lebanese army soldiers and people stand at the site of an Israeli strike in the town of Baaloul, in the western Bekaa Valley, Lebanon October 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maher Abou Taleb
Lebanese army soldiers and people stand at the site of an Israeli strike in the town of Baaloul, in the western Bekaa Valley, Lebanon October 19, 2024. REUTERS/Maher Abou Taleb

An Israeli strike on a Lebanese army center on Sunday killed one soldier and wounded 18 others, the Lebanese military said.

It was the latest in a series of Israeli strikes that have killed over 40 Lebanese troops, even as the military has largely kept to the sidelines in the war between Israel and Hezbollah.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which has said previous strikes on Lebanese troops were accidental and that they are not a target of its campaign against Hezbollah.

Lebanon's caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, condemned it as an assault on US-led ceasefire efforts, calling it a “direct, bloody message rejecting all efforts and ongoing contacts” to end the war.

“(Israel is) again writing in Lebanese blood a brazen rejection of the solution that is being discussed,” a statement from his office read.

The strike occurred in southwestern Lebanon on the coastal road between Tyre and Naqoura, where there has been heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah began firing rockets, missiles and drones into Israel after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of the Gaza Strip ignited the war there. Hezbollah has portrayed the attacks as an act of solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas. Iran supports both armed groups.

Israel has launched retaliatory airstrikes since the rocket fire began, and in September the low-level conflict erupted into all-out war, as Israel launched waves of airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon and killed Hezbollah's top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and several of his top commanders.

Israeli airstrikes early Saturday pounded central Beirut, killing at least 20 people and wounding 66, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. Hezbollah has continued to fire regular barrages into Israel, forcing people to race for shelters and occasionally killing or wounding them.

Israeli attacks have killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The fighting has displaced about 1.2 million people, or a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

On the Israeli side, about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed by bombardments in northern Israel and in battle following Israel's ground invasion in early October. Around 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from the country's north.

Hezbollah fired barrages of rockets into northern and central Israel on Sunday, some of which were intercepted.

Israel's Magen David Adom rescue service said it was treating two people in the central city of Petah Tikva, a 23-year-old man who was lightly wounded by a blast and a 70-year-old woman suffering from smoke inhalation from a car that caught fire. The first responders said they also treated two women in their 50s who were wounded in northern Israel.

It was unclear whether the injuries and damage were caused by the rockets or interceptors.

The Biden administration has spent months trying to broker a ceasefire, and US envoy Amos Hochstein was back in the region last week.

The emerging agreement would pave the way for the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon below the Litani River in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war. Lebanese troops would patrol the area, with the presence of UN peacekeepers.