'Top Gun' among Blockbuster Sequels Targeting Oscar Noms

Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File
Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File
TT
20

'Top Gun' among Blockbuster Sequels Targeting Oscar Noms

Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File
Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File

The Oscar nominations for a year in which the big-screen box office finally bounced back from the pandemic will be unveiled Tuesday, with Academy voters expected to reward blockbusters such as "Top Gun: Maverick" for helping to save movie theaters.

Tom Cruise's long-awaited sequel to his huge 1986 hit is the most likely crowd-pleaser to make the cut for best picture -- Hollywood's most coveted prize -- but other popular follow-ups including "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" could also get a nod, AFP said.

They will compete with a wide range of movies, from word-of-mouth sci-fi smash "Everything Everywhere All At Once" to Steven Spielberg's quasi-memoir "The Fabelmans," which wowed many critics but didn't persuade theatergoers to pay up.

Other films firmly on the radar of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences voters are Irish black comedy "The Banshees of Inisherin," Baz Luhrmann's rock-and-roll biopic "Elvis," and Cate Blanchett's latest tour-de-force "Tar."

"This year is one of the more unknown years," said Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis.

"I probably have put more effort into talking to Academy members to try to gauge their interest and see where the race is headed than in any other year in my life," he told AFP.

"And I probably know the least I've ever known in my career."

A major complicating factor for Oscars prognosticators is the recent massive growth in the number of international Academy voters.

Those members have been credited with surprises such as South Korea's "Parasite" winning best picture in 2020, and Japan's "Drive My Car" being nominated last year.

"We've had international features get in the past few years, and I think that streak could continue," said Davis.

Germany's World War I drama "All Quiet on the Western Front" has built major momentum, scooping a massive 14 nods last week for Britain's BAFTAs.

Another best picture contender could be "RRR," an unapologetically over-the-top Indian action film that has built grassroots support to become a hugely popular favorite in Hollywood.

"RRR" cannot be nominated for best international feature, however, as India opted instead to submit "Last Film Show" as the country's official pick for that category.

"No shade to the movie they did choose, which is actually very good, but 'RRR' was a slam dunk," said Davis.

- Acting races -
In the individual categories, Brendan Fraser ("The Whale"), Colin Farrell ("The Banshees of Inisherin") and Austin Butler ("Elvis") are clear favorites to score best actor nominations.

Double Oscar-winner Blanchett appears to be locked in a two-way battle atop the best actress section with Michelle Yeoh, who could make history with "Everything Everywhere."

"She's going be the second Asian woman ever nominated for lead actress in 95 years" of the Oscars, said Davis.

Her co-star Ke Huy Quan -- who appeared as a child in "Indiana Jones and The Temple of Doom" almost four decades ago -- is likely to cement a remarkable comeback with a nod for best supporting actor.

The best supporting actress category is expected to feature Angela Bassett, who would become the first star in a Marvel superhero movie to ever earn an Oscar acting nomination with "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever."

Spielberg is among those predicted to make the best director shortlist.

- 'Saved movies' -
Actors Riz Ahmed ("Sound of Metal") and Allison Williams ("Girls") will unveil the nominations Tuesday from Los Angeles starting at 5:30 am (1330 GMT).

Television ratings for award shows including the Oscars have trended downwards, as Academy voters in recent years have veered toward honoring lesser-known indie hits like "Nomadland" and "CODA."

Many in the industry will be hoping for a healthy spread of nominations among 2022's crowd-pleasing sequels, which were sorely needed as giants such as Cineworld, the world's second biggest cinema chain, filed for bankruptcy protection.

James Cameron's sci-fi epic "Avatar: The Way of Water" sailed past the $2 billion mark globally last weekend.

"Top Gun: Maverick," which came out in May during highly uncertain times for movie theaters, earned around $1.5 billion.

"That's the one that feels like it could actually win best picture," said Davis.

"What better story the day after the Oscars air, than that the movie that saved movies was named the best movie? That's a good story to tell."



This Summer at the Movies, Superheroes, from ‘Superman’ to ‘Fantastic Four,’ Return

 This image released by Warner Bros.Pictures shows David Corenswet in a scene from "Superman." (Warner Bros. Pictures via AP)
This image released by Warner Bros.Pictures shows David Corenswet in a scene from "Superman." (Warner Bros. Pictures via AP)
TT
20

This Summer at the Movies, Superheroes, from ‘Superman’ to ‘Fantastic Four,’ Return

 This image released by Warner Bros.Pictures shows David Corenswet in a scene from "Superman." (Warner Bros. Pictures via AP)
This image released by Warner Bros.Pictures shows David Corenswet in a scene from "Superman." (Warner Bros. Pictures via AP)

Superman already has a lot on his broad shoulders. It seems unfair to add the fate of Hollywood to his worries.

But that’s the kind of pressure that comes with being one of the biggest stars in the comic book universe, who is getting a grand reintroduction at a tumultuous time. Thankfully he’s not doing it alone — Marvel Studios is also returning to theaters in a big way with two movies this summer, “Thunderbolts” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.”

Five years after the COVID-19 pandemic brought movie business to a halt, and two years after the strikes, the industry has yet to fully recover. Critics may have complained of superhero fatigue, but after several summers of depleted offerings, it’s clear that they're a vital part of the mix — especially when they're good.

The $4 billion summer of “Barbenheimer” may be most remembered for those two movies, but it didn’t get to that number without the “Guardians of the Galaxy” and “Spider-Man” movies, the second- and third-highest grossing of the season.

The filmmakers behind some of the summer's biggest movies spoke to The Associated Press about what to expect in 2025.

Summer Movie Math

Summer begins early in Hollywood, on the first weekend in May. Kids might still be in school, and pools might still be closed, but that kickoff can make or break that pivotal 123-day corridor that has historically accounted for around 40% of the annual box office. Last year was the first in many that didn’t launch with a Marvel movie and it showed — the business limped along for weeks until Disney came to the rescue with “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine.”

This year, the powerful studio is back in that familiar spot with “Thunderbolts,” which brings together misfits and antiheroes like Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh), Red Guardian (David Harbour) and Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan).

“It’s a fun twist on what a movie like this could be,” said director Jake Schreier. “There are some places we’re gonna go that are different from what you would normally expect.”

He added: “It’s trying to be a movie about something and the moment we’re in — not in a political sense, but just where everybody’s at and what everyone’s been going through.”

The Memorial Day weekend could also be a behemoth a few weeks later with the live action “Lilo & Stitch” and “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” storming theaters. With a new “Jurassic World,” a live-action “How to Train Your Dragon” and a Formula One movie also on the schedule through June and July, the summer 2025 season has the potential to be the biggest in the post-COVID era.

Before the pandemic, all but one summer since 2007 broke the $4 billion mark. Since 2020, only one has: 2023, led by “Barbie.”

Saving Superman (and the DC Universe)

After three “Guardians” movies, James Gunn knows enough to know that he doesn’t have much control over whether people buy tickets for his movies. His job is to make something good, entertaining and “worthy” of the audience.

But that’s also possibly underplaying the pressure of taking on Superman and overseeing a unified DC universe that kicks off with “Superman” on July 11. He considers it the first true superhero movie he’s ever made.

“It’s a personal journey for Superman that’s entirely new,” Gunn said. “It is, first and foremost, about what does Superman learn about himself. But it’s also about the robots and the flying dogs and all that stuff. It’s taking a very real person and putting them in the middle of this outrageous situation and outrageous world and playing with that. I think it’s a lot of fun because of that.”

The film introduces a new actor to the role of Superman/Clark Kent in David Corenswet, who stars alongside Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane and Nicholas Hoult as Lex Luthor. Gunn said to expect different things from both.

“It was a lot of fun making a Lex that is actually going to kill Superman,” he said. “He’s pretty scary.”

The film is also “seeding the rest of the DCU,” Gunn said. “If it works as a movie in a basic way, that’s what we need to happen, that’s what I care about.”

Superman as a brand has always trailed Batman at the box office. None of the Zack Snyder films crossed $1 billion, not accounting for inflation, while both Christopher Nolan “Dark Knight” sequels did. But Gunn isn't thinking a lot about that.

“I just want to make a decent movie that makes a little money,” Gunn said.

Marvel’s First Family

Superman’s not the only legacy brand getting a splashy reintroduction this summer. A new Fantastic Four crew, assembled for the first time under umbrella of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and Kevin Feige, is heading to theaters July 25.

“Fantastic Four is a comic I’ve loved since I was a kid,” said director Matt Shakman. “They are the legendary heroes of the '60s that the Marvel silver age was built on.”

Created by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby, The Fantastic Four is among Marvel’s longest-running comics series. But it has not had the most distinguished history on film, including two with Chris Evans and one with Michael B. Jordan.

“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” is set in a retro-futuristic 1960s New York, where Pedro Pascal’s Reed Richards is “basically Steve Jobs meets Einstein who’s creating technology that’s changing the world” and Vanessa Kirby’s Sue Storm is “essentially the secretary-general of the UN,” Shakman said.

A television veteran with directing credits on shows like “WandaVision” and “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia,” Shakman said he wants to do right by the characters, and audience.

“It’s working on an incredibly large scale in terms of world building, but it’s also no different from all of the great comedies and dramas that I’ve done,” Shakman said. “In the end, it comes down to character, it comes down to relationships, it comes down to heart and humor.”

Plus, he feels a responsibility to the idea of the big summer movie.

“It was the joy of my childhood. ... A lot of it has to do with building worlds and entering into a place of wonder,” he said. “That’s what I felt when I saw ‘Indiana Jones’ when I was a kid and it’s what I hope people feel when they see ‘Fantastic Four’ this summer.”

Why summer 2025 might be a big year for movies

Studios know that superheroes alone don’t make a robust theatrical marketplace and there are plenty of other options on the menu including franchises, event movies and independents: There are family pics (“Smurfs,” “Elio,” “The Bad Guys 2”); action and adventures (“Ballerina,” “The Karate Kid: Legends”); horrors, thrillers and slashers (“28 Years Later,” “I Know What You Did Last Summer,” “M3GAN 2.0”); romances (“Materialists,” “Jane Austen Wrecked My Life”); dramas (“Sorry, Baby,” “The Life of Chuck”); a new Wes Anderson movie (“The Phoenician Scheme”); and comedies (“Freakier Friday,” “Bride Hard,” “The Naked Gun”) — though one of the most anticipated, “Happy Gilmore 2,” will be on Netflix.

“The frequency of movies, the cadence, the sheer number of them and the perceived quality and excitement surrounding this lineup is like almost like never before,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for Comscore. “Draw me a blueprint of a perfect summer lineup: 2025 is it.”

One of the biggest movies of the season may be “Jurassic World Rebirth,” the seventh movie in a $6 billion franchise. Even its poorly received predecessor made $1 billion. This time they enlisted a new filmmaker, self-proclaimed “Jurassic Park” superfan Gareth Edwards, and the original’s screenwriter for a new adventure with Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali and Jonathan Bailey.

“People say, like, do you feel pressure and the most pressure I feel is from myself as a fan and to Steven Spielberg, to not disappoint him,” Edwards said. “Weirdly what’s great about doing a ‘Jurassic’ movie is that everybody knows deep down that like half the reason they’re in this business is because of that film and Steven’s work.”

It’s fitting, in a way, that 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of what’s considered the first summer blockbuster: “Jaws.”

Edwards said he was born into that world of big summer blockbusters that shaped his early love of movies. Directing one, he said, “is kind of the dream. You get the chance to swing for the fences.”

And the unstable economy might work in the industry’s favor, at least when it comes to moviegoing. Even with increased ticket prices, theatrical movies remain the most affordable entertainment outside of the home and attendance tends to increase during recession years. The annual domestic box office crossed $10 billion for the first time in 2009.

More recently, the week the tariffs were announced, “A Minecraft Movie” doubled its opening weekend projections, and all of those ticket buyers saw trailers and posters for everything to come. It was, Dergarabedian noted, one of the only positive financial stories that week.

“Top Gun: Maverick” filmmaker Joseph Kosinski knows a few things about launching a pricey big screen spectacle into a turbulent marketplace. But he's feeling good about the summer and “F1’s” place within it. Warner Bros. will release “F1” on June 27.

“This is the summer where all this product that we’ve all been working on for the last few years is finally coming into the marketplace, so I’m very optimistic,” Kosinski said. “By the end of this summer, hopefully people aren’t talking about being in a funk anymore and it feels like we got our mojo back and we’re off to the races.”