Egypt’s Headline Inflation Surges to 25.8% In January amid Imports Delay

Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
TT

Egypt’s Headline Inflation Surges to 25.8% In January amid Imports Delay

Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files
Two Egyptian women shopping in a supermarket in Cairo, Egypt, December 1, 2019. REUTERS/Shokry Hussien/Files

Egypt's annual urban consumer price inflation jumped to a higher-than-expected 25.8% in January, data from statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Thursday.

The rise from 21.3% in December followed a series of currency devaluations starting in March 2022, a prolonged shortage of foreign currency, and continuing delays in getting imports into the country. The Egyptian pound has fallen by nearly 50% since March.

January inflation was the highest since December 2017, a year after a steep devaluation.

Economists had expected a reading of 23.75%, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 14.

Five analysts had forecast that core inflation would climb to 26.6% from 24.4% in December.

Core inflation jumped to 31.241% in January from 24.449% in December.

Headline inflation increased across the board, but was driven especially by higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which make up 32.7% of the index's basket, "as producers continued to pass through higher import bills to shoppers", said Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage.

Month-on-month, prices rose by 4.7% compared to 2.1% in December, driven by a 10.1% monthly surge in food and beverage prices, Sandeep said.

The high January number increases pressure on the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates when it next meets on March 30.

At its last meeting on Feb. 2, the MPC kept its lending rate at 17.25% and the deposit rate at 16.25%, saying its hikes of 800 basis points over the last year should help to tame inflation.



Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions
TT

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil Prices Rise as Concerns Grow over Supply Disruptions

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday reversing earlier declines, as fears of tighter Russian and Iranian supply due to escalating Western sanctions lent support.

Brent futures were up 61 cents, or 0.80%, to $76.91 a barrel at 1119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 46 cents, or 0.63%, to $74.02.

It seems market participants have started to price in some small supply disruption risks on Iranian crude exports to China, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

In China, Shandong Port Group issued a notice on Monday banning US sanctioned oil vessels from its network of ports, according to three traders, potentially restricting blacklisted vessels from major energy terminals on China's east coast.

Shandong Port Group oversees major ports on China's east coast, including Qingdao, Rizhao and Yantai, which are major terminals for importing sanctioned oil.

Meanwhile, cold weather in the US and Europe has boosted heating oil demand, providing further support for prices.

However, oil price gains were capped by global economic data.

Euro zone inflation

accelerated

in December, an unwelcome but anticipated blip that is unlikely to derail further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

"Higher inflation in Germany raised suggestions that the ECB may not be able to cut rates as fast as hoped across the Eurozone, while US manufactured good orders fell in November," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum said.

Technical indicators for oil futures are now in overbought territory, and sellers are keen to step in once again to take advantage of the strength, tempering additional price advances, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

Market participants are waiting for more data this week, such as the US December non-farm payrolls report on Friday, for clues on US interest rate policy and the oil demand outlook.