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Forecast: Digital Video Viewing to Top Traditional TV in US

A Netflix logo is pictured in Los Angeles, California, US, September 15, 2022. (Reuters)
A Netflix logo is pictured in Los Angeles, California, US, September 15, 2022. (Reuters)
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Forecast: Digital Video Viewing to Top Traditional TV in US

A Netflix logo is pictured in Los Angeles, California, US, September 15, 2022. (Reuters)
A Netflix logo is pictured in Los Angeles, California, US, September 15, 2022. (Reuters)

For the first time ever, US adults will spend more time this year watching digital video on platforms such as Netflix, TikTok and YouTube than viewing traditional television, Insider Intelligence forecast on Wednesday.

In the historic first, the market tracker expects "linear TV" to account for less than half of daily viewing, dropping to under three hours while average daily digital video watching climbs to 52.3 percent with 3 hours and 11 minutes.

"This milestone is driven by people spending more and more time watching video on their biggest and smallest screens, whether it's an immersive drama on a connected TV or a viral clip on a smartphone," Insider Intelligence principal analyst Paul Verna said in a release.

"Given teens' preferences for social and streaming video over TV, we can expect these trends to continue to shift in favor of digital."

Netflix and YouTube are "neck and neck" leaders when it comes to digital video audience attention, with US adults tuning in for about 33 minutes daily on average at each platform, according to Insider Intelligence.

Live sporting events becoming available on video streaming platforms is also helping power the shift away from traditional television, as is the popularity of shared video clips on apps, the market tracker said.

TikTok is a key driver with the average amount of time spent there daily by US adults climbing sharply, according to Insider Intelligence.

"TikTok versus Netflix will be a major trend to watch this year," said Insider Intelligence principal analyst Jasmine Enberg.

"The lines between social and entertainment have blurred, and TikTok is now coming for the bigger-screen video players."

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew will testify in March before US lawmakers in Washington, where the Chinese social media app faces accusations that it is beholden to the Communist Party in Beijing.

TikTok, whose parent company ByteDance is Chinese, is fighting for survival in the United States with rising calls from mainly Republican lawmakers that the company should be outright banned because of its alleged links to Beijing.

Insider Intelligence noted that while Twitter is not primarily a video platform, overall time spent on the platform by US adults is expected to drop this year and next year as its ranks of users decline.

"The problem is that Twitter's efforts to encourage more original videos, from Vine to Fleets, have so far been unsuccessful," Enberg said.

"Twitter owner Elon Musk's attempts to bring more video to the app, including potentially incentivizing YouTube creators to post to Twitter, will be futile at improving time spent among all US adults unless he also manages to stave off a user decline."

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Entertainment

'Sonic 3' and 'Mufasa' Battle for No. 1 at the Holiday Box Office

This image released by Paramount Pictures and Sega of America shows the character Sonic, voiced by Ben Schwartz, in a scene from "Sonic the Hedgehog 3". (Paramount Pictures and Sega of America, Inc. via AP)
This image released by Paramount Pictures and Sega of America shows the character Sonic, voiced by Ben Schwartz, in a scene from "Sonic the Hedgehog 3". (Paramount Pictures and Sega of America, Inc. via AP)
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'Sonic 3' and 'Mufasa' Battle for No. 1 at the Holiday Box Office

This image released by Paramount Pictures and Sega of America shows the character Sonic, voiced by Ben Schwartz, in a scene from "Sonic the Hedgehog 3". (Paramount Pictures and Sega of America, Inc. via AP)
This image released by Paramount Pictures and Sega of America shows the character Sonic, voiced by Ben Schwartz, in a scene from "Sonic the Hedgehog 3". (Paramount Pictures and Sega of America, Inc. via AP)

Two family films dominated the holiday box office this week, with "Sonic the Hedgehog 3" winning the three-day weekend over "Mufasa" by a blue hair.

Paramount's Sonic movie earned $38 million, while "Mufasa" brought in $37.1 million from theaters in the US and Canada, according to studio estimates Sunday. On a normal weekend counting Friday, Saturday and Sunday ticket purchases, the winner would be somewhat clear.

But when the Christmas holiday falls on a Wednesday as it did this year, the studios look at two sets of numbers: The five-day earnings and the three-day weekend earnings. With the five-day tally, The Walt Disney Co.'s "Mufasa" had the edge, bringing in $63.8 million.

It all adds up to a rather robust theatrical landscape, helped by the continued success of "Wicked" and "Moana 2," which are on their sixth and fifth weekends, respectively.

The vampire horror "Nosferatu" also debuted fairly triumphantly. Robert Eggers' modern reimagining of a 1922 silent film starring Nicholas Hoult and Lily-Rose Depp rose to the top of a starry batch of Christmas Day newcomers, which included the Bob Dylan biopic "A Complete Unknown," with Timothée Chalamet; the drama "Babygirl" with Nicole Kidman; and "The Fire Inside," about boxer Claressa Shields.

"Nosferatu" landed in third place with $21.2 million from the weekend and $40.3 million from its first five days. Not accounting for inflation, it had the best Christmas Day opening ever for a genre film, with $11.6 million (besting "The Faculty's" $4.4 million in 1998). Focus Features released the R-rated film in 2,992 theaters.

It was a gamble to open "Nosferatu" on Christmas, when family films or all-ages blockbusters tend to be prioritized. But it paid off, attracting the coveted 18 to 34-year-old demographic to theaters.

"It was a risky move, but we knew that we had such a great film," said Lisa Bunnell, who leads distribution for Focus Features. "A lot of people thought we were insane. But I think the more that people thought we were crazy, the more we all felt like it was the right thing to do."

The response to the unconventional counter-programming was gratifying. The sarcophagus-inspired popcorn buckets are even reselling for over $100.

"People keep talking about 'how do we get people back into the movies?' I think the only way you can get people to go back is to shake it up," Bunnell said. "You don't just spoon feed them the same things over and over again."

The Bob Dylan movie, directed by James Mangold, also got off to a bright start with $11.6 million over the weekend and $23.2 million since Christmas. The 5-day total is a record for Searchlight Pictures since Disney acquired the company in early 2019. It's been well received by both critics (96% on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences (A on CinemaScore) and will likely get more of a boost from the awards race.

"Babygirl," an A24 release from filmmaker Halina Reijn, played on 2115 screens, earning $4.4 million over the weekend and $7.2 million since Christmas. The film stars Kidman as a married, buttoned-up CEO who begins an affair with a young intern at the company, played by Harris Dickinson. Kidman won the best acting prize for her performance at the Venice Film Festival.

"The Fire Inside," from Amazon MGM Studios, meanwhile got a bit lost in the mix despite strong reviews. It has earned a total of $4.3 million, with $2 million coming from weekend showings where it played in 2006 theaters.

Thanksgiving releases continued to perform well through the Christmas timeframe. Fourth place went to "Wicked," which earned another $19.5 million, bringing its domestic total to $424.2 million. On Tuesday, the lavish movie musical will also be available to rent or purchase at home. It's a move that has drawn some critics who believe making it available at home after only 40 days in theaters will cannibalize profits.

"Moana 2" rounded out the top five films this weekend with $18.2 million. The Disney movie has made $882.5 million globally and is closing in on $400 million domestically.

Christmas Day itself was massive for the industry, with $61 million in ticket sales. Thursday was nearly as big, with $50 million.

"Every day was like Saturday at the box office because of the way the holidays lined up," said Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore's senior media analyst.

Comscore is projecting that the year will net out with about $8.75 billion in domestic box office receipts. That's down about 3.3% from last year, which cracked $9 billion, and the pre-pandemic normal of $11 billion.