Süleyman Demirel, who was a veteran politician, seven times Prime Minister and the ninth President of Türkiye always said “24 hours is a very long time in politics”. How true, especially in Turkish politics.
Since February 6, Türkiye has been trying to heal the wounds of the devastating earthquake which is one of the greatest natural disasters ever.
Last week on 2 March, Türkiye was shaken again, this time by a political earthquake. The alliance of the six opposition parties, known as “Millet İttifakı/Nation Alliance" or “Table of Six” was expected to announce its joint presidential candidate. Instead, the Table cracked.
Meral Aksener, leader of the İYİ Party, the second largest party within the “Nation Alliance”, claimed that Mayors of Ankara or Istanbul will stand a better chance to win than Kemal Kılıcdaroglu, leader of the main opposition party CHP.
President Erdoğan and his AKP have been in power in Türkiye since 2002. The next Presidential and Parliamentary elections are to be held in May.
On the one side, there is “Cumhur İttifakı/People Alliance” which consists mainly of Erdoğan’s AKP and MHP.
Even though not yet officially announced, the presidential candidate of this alliance is most likely to be Erdoğan.
On the other side, “Nation Alliance” is made up of six political parties: the social democrat People's Republican Party (CHP), center right nationalist İYİ Parti, religious Saadet Party (SP), center right Demokrat Parti (DP), conservative nationalist Gelecek Partisi (GP) and conservative liberal DEVA.
These parties may be standing on different points of the political spectrum but they have joined forces on the basis of common objectives. At the top of their agenda are bringing President Erdogan’s rule to end through democratic elections and changing the Presidential system to a strengthened parliamentary system.
It was no secret that some members of the İYİ Party had their doubts about Kılıcdaroglu as the joint presidential candidate of “Nation Alliance” to challenge Erdoğan.
One of the most frequently sighted reasons for their objections to Kılıcdaroglu has been that he would not be the best option to attract votes of the discontented conservative electorate of Anatolia. There were also issues on how to deal with HDP (the so-called Kurdish Party).
But still, Aksener’s kick at the table and her harsh behavior, claiming that “İYİ Party has been squeezed in a clamp and has been forced to make a choice between death and malaria” took everyone by surprise.
Aksener’s step may have appeased the ideological elements in her party, which has been established in 2017 by breakaways from nationalist MHP. The reason they left was their dissatisfaction with the way MHP was run by its leader Devlet Bahceli and his absolute allegiance to Erdoğan.
Aksener, by leaving the Table, caused anger within the opposition electorate, including her own party ranks. There were resignations from party membership, mostly to join CHP. Some of the founders of İYİ Party may still be driven by nationalist ideology but most of its electorate are center right/nationalist, secular voters and they want to end Erdoğan’s rule.
As to the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul, who were called upon by Aksener, both are from CHP. In the 2019 Municipal elections, they won back Ankara and Istanbul from the AKP and are popular. The two mayors were not moved by Aksener’s call and reiterated their loyalty to CHP and Kılıcdaroglu. The other five parties in the Table also stood by him.
Aksener was left in the open.
Over the weekend, public reaction and behind the doors diplomacy must have convinced Aksener to return to the Table of Six.
To everyone’s surprise, Aksener attended the meeting of the “Table of Six” on Monday. After almost four hours of meeting, Kılıcdaroglu’s candidacy to a cheering crowd of supporters was announced.
The Table also published a “Road Map of transition to strengthened parliamentary system” which includes an article saying that leaders of all five parties will be deputies of the President.
Shortly before, in a televised speech after the Cabinet meeting, Erdoğan confirmed that elections will take place on 14 May.
Analysts are trying to explain why Aksener acted the way she did. Some claim that she played hardball, drove a very hard bargain, pushed to the limits and got what she wanted.
Others argue that she overestimated her strength, demonstrated bad political brinkmanship and had to backstep.
Whatever it was and even if there may still be differences in opinion and approach, ranks are formed.
Erdoğan will face his most diffıcult challenge in all these years.
The President is now portraying himself as the true statesman trying to heal wounds of the earthquake and secure the future, while the opposition is dwelling on small-time, self centered politics.
He also tries to present the Table as an artificial pack which could not run the country .
But after more than two decades in power, Erdoğan and his administration has been worn out with various crises, scandals, allegations of corruption and economic conditions.
The earthquake made things even more difficult for Erdogan.
The disaster came under his watch. One can not blame anyone for not preventing an earthquake but can be very critical on the basis of not being well prepared and not doing what needed to be done in all these years. This is what Erdoğan is facing now.
After the cabinet meeting on Monday, Erdogan said “the era of building on fault lines, stream beds and landslide areas is over. It is our most important duty to hold accountable the institutions that fail to fulfill their responsibilities in this regard.”
This is an incredible statement from a President who has been running the country for over two decades with powers which no Turkish president has enjoyed since 1940’s.
The “Nation Alliance” has seized a very important opportunity and Kılıcdaroglu’s performance has increased his popularity.
Now, as he said, the “Nation Alliance” will aim to proceed by further solidifying its ranks and expanding its base. This means drawing support from AKP and MHP circles, but even more so from HDP and the left of the center left wing parties.
Swords are drawn for a hard fight for probably the most important elections in the history of Türkiye.
We may expect an action packed three and half months before the election in mid May.
