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Oil Markets Steady as Investors Weigh Banking Crisis, Russia

A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)
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Oil Markets Steady as Investors Weigh Banking Crisis, Russia

A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)
A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. (Reuters)

Oil prices stabilized in Asian trade on Monday as investors sought cues from broader financial markets, while comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend ratcheted up geopolitical tensions in Europe.

Brent crude futures held unchanged at $74.99 a barrel at 0357 GMT after hitting a session high of $75.64. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.29 a barrel, up 3 cents, after rising to $69.92 earlier in the session.

Brent rose 2.8% last week, while WTI rebounded 3.8% as jitters in the banking sector eased.

Oil markets are closely watching the sentiment in financial market, while oil fundamentals remain sidelined, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

"Expect most price action in Brent and WTI futures to occur during the Europe and US trading hours, marked by plenty of intraday volatility," Hari said.

"A strong rebound is not on the cards until the (banking) crisis dissipates fully, which could take days, if not weeks," she added.

Keeping a lid on oil's gains, the dollar was firm on Monday as investors assessed regulators' moves to rein in jitters in the global banking system.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on demand for oil.

Prices drew some support from President Vladimir Putin comments that he will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe over Ukraine.

NATO criticized Putin on Sunday for what it called his "dangerous and irresponsible" nuclear rhetoric.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Moscow was very close to achieving its target of cutting crude output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to around 9.5 million bpd.

Despite lowering output, Russia is expected to maintain crude oil exports by cutting refinery output in April, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed on Friday.

Exports of Russian oil products have to date been more affected than crude exports by a recent European Union embargo, with tons of diesel stuck on ships awaiting buyers.

Analysts said Russian crude inventories have been rising since September last year, and the country would likely want to avoid further stockbuilds during refinery maintenance season from March to June.

"If Russia wants to draw down the inventories that it has built, output cuts may need to be extended beyond June," analysts at FGE said in a note.

Meanwhile, in France, industrial action is disrupting refineries, reducing crude demand and fuel production.

Investors are also watching out for China's manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) to be releases later this week.

In the US, oil rigs rose four to 593 last week, up for the first time in six weeks, while gas rigs held steady at 162, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in a report on Friday.

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Business

IMF Urges US to Work with Partners to Ease Trade Restrictions

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump shakes hands with US Vice President J.D. Vance as US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) applauds during Trump's State of the Union Address in the House Chamber at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., US, February 24, 2026. REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump shakes hands with US Vice President J.D. Vance as US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) applauds during Trump's State of the Union Address in the House Chamber at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., US, February 24, 2026. REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE/File Photo
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IMF Urges US to Work with Partners to Ease Trade Restrictions

FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump shakes hands with US Vice President J.D. Vance as US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) applauds during Trump's State of the Union Address in the House Chamber at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., US, February 24, 2026. REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: US President Donald Trump shakes hands with US Vice President J.D. Vance as US House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) applauds during Trump's State of the Union Address in the House Chamber at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., US, February 24, 2026. REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE/File Photo

The IMF on Wednesday called on the United States to work with trading partners and find ways to mutually ease trade curbs, as it issued a review of the world's biggest economy.

The International Monetary Fund's findings covered the first year of Donald Trump's second presidency, in which he unleashed wide-ranging tariffs on allies and competitors alike as he sought to shrink the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing.

But his on-again, off-again tariffs have roiled supply chains and financial markets, said AFP.

During the year, the Trump administration also sought to lower reliance on unauthorized immigrant workers and reduce the federal government's role in the economy, the IMF noted.

But the fund said Wednesday that Washington should work constructively with partners "to address concerns over unfair trade practices and agree on a coordinated reduction in trade restrictions and industrial policy distortions that have negative cross-border effects."

"Where trade and investment measures (including tariffs and export controls) are put in place for national security reasons, such policies should be applied narrowly," it urged.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva told journalists that the report was prepared before the Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs last Friday, adding that it would digest this development.

Since the ruling, Trump has tapped a different law to impose a new 10-percent global tariff, which he also threatened to hike to 15 percent.

Georgieva met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the report's release.

She noted that the fund shares the Trump administration's concern about the size of the US trade and current account deficit. She added that the country's current account gap is "too big."

- 'Stability risk' -

The continuing rise in public debt also "remains a major issue" to keep in mind, Georgieva said.

The IMF said that "while the risk of sovereign stress in the US is low, the upward path for the public debt-GDP ratio and increasing levels of short-term debt-GDP represent a growing stability risk to the US and global economy."

Overall, the fund projects US GDP growth to come in at 2.6 percent in 2026, picking up from 2.2 percent last year.

While the economy is "buoyant," the IMF warned that "uncertainty around trade policies could represent a larger-than- expected drag on activity."

It noted in the concluding statement of its "Article IV" consultation that the country saw "continued strong productivity growth even though the government shutdown took a bite out of activity in the fourth quarter."

The IMF last issued US-related policy suggestions in 2024.

At that time, it raised concern over growing trade restrictions under then-president Joe Biden's administration, urging officials to unwind obstacles to free trade.

The fund in 2024 also pushed for a reversal in the rise in public debt, noting that officials could raise taxes among other reforms.

Business

Saudi Council of Economic Affairs Reviews Local and Global Developments

The Saudi Council of Economic and Development Affairs discussed several issues, including the Ministry of Economy and Planning's quarterly report (SPA)
The Saudi Council of Economic and Development Affairs discussed several issues, including the Ministry of Economy and Planning's quarterly report (SPA)
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Saudi Council of Economic Affairs Reviews Local and Global Developments

The Saudi Council of Economic and Development Affairs discussed several issues, including the Ministry of Economy and Planning's quarterly report (SPA)
The Saudi Council of Economic and Development Affairs discussed several issues, including the Ministry of Economy and Planning's quarterly report (SPA)

The Saudi Council of Economic and Development Affairs has held a videoconference, reviewing the Ministry of Economy and Planning's quarterly report, which covered developments in the global economy and the impact of geopolitical challenges and fluctuations in global markets on growth prospects.

The report also addressed the latest economic developments in the Kingdom and future projections through 2027, highlighting the economy's high resilience in the face of global challenges.

Economic indicators point to remarkable growth, reinforcing the Kingdom’s position among the world's fastest-growing and most stable economies.

The council also reviewed the report on the performance of the state’s general budget for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, submitted by the Ministry of Finance.

The report provided a comprehensive overview of financial performance during the period, including developments in revenues and expenditures and levels of public debt.

The findings highlighted the continued adoption of a balanced and flexible fiscal policy that supports economic growth and strengthens financial sustainability in the medium and long term.

Moreover, the council discussed a number of procedural matters, including the draft Government Tenders and Procurement Law, the draft Space Law, and a briefing on the assignment given to the Council of Universities’ Affairs to update the necessary regulations for the governance of public and private universities and health colleges, as well as to oversee and monitor them periodically. The update also covers compliance processes at public and private universities and health colleges, in line with quality standards approved by the Council of Universities’ Affairs.

The council was also briefed on the quarterly report of the Real Estate Price Index, along with summaries of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) reports, and the core reports on which the summaries were based.

The council took the necessary decisions and recommendations on these matters.

Business

Saudi Arabia Unifies Competitiveness, Business Under Agile Governance

A beneficiary looks at a brochure for the Saudi Business Center (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A beneficiary looks at a brochure for the Saudi Business Center (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Unifies Competitiveness, Business Under Agile Governance

A beneficiary looks at a brochure for the Saudi Business Center (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A beneficiary looks at a brochure for the Saudi Business Center (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia is moving ahead with restructuring its institutional framework to keep pace with the speed of economic transformation after the Cabinet decided to merge the National Competitiveness Center and the Saudi Business Center under the umbrella of the Saudi Center for Competitiveness and Business.

The move reshapes the business environment, accelerates reforms and strengthens governance to support a more attractive economy.

Commerce Minister Dr. Majid Al-Qasabi said following the Cabinet decision that the merger represents a pivotal regulatory step reflecting a strategic direction toward enhancing institutional integration, improving the efficiency of monitoring business environment challenges and speeding up reforms to facilitate doing business.

The step supports private sector empowerment and contributes to boosting the Kingdom’s competitiveness.

According to several specialists, the decision is not merely a cosmetic change, but a unification of direction and intensification of efforts toward a single goal: a more efficient, faster and globally competitive investment environment.

They said the merger reshapes the business landscape and accelerates reforms in the Kingdom.

Unifying the track

The move comes as the Kingdom continues restructuring its institutions to match the pace of transformation, most recently by merging the two centers to serve entrepreneurs and foreign investors alike in terms of efficiency, speed and competitiveness.

Specialists told Asharq Al-Awsat that the step is distinctly strategic and reflects the Kingdom’s adoption of “agile governance.”

They said merging the National Competitiveness Center with the Saudi Business Center is not just a change of name, but a unification of direction and consolidation of efforts to serve one objective: a global investment environment.

Institutional integration

Shura Council member Fadl bin Saad Al-Buainain told Asharq Al-Awsat that there is a close link between competitiveness and business, noting that competitiveness outcomes ultimately serve economic activities through support, incentives, facilitation and addressing challenges.

Al-Buainain said the decision to merge the National Competitiveness Center and the Saudi Business Center under the name Saudi Center for Competitiveness and Business aims to enhance institutional integration by reorganizing and combining two independent entities.

He added that the step will improve the quality and alignment of outputs, help achieve competitiveness targets and support the business sector simultaneously.

It will also enhance work efficiency, enable direct identification of challenges without the need to refer them to another entity, and accelerate completion, which in itself is a strategic objective that strengthens institutional efficiency, boosts the Kingdom’s competitiveness and supports the business sector.

Corrective decisions

Al-Buainain described the merger as a healthy regulatory process that contributes to reducing costs, focusing efforts and ensuring high-quality outputs aligned with strategic targets.

He stressed that the move followed a considerable period of independent operation and performance measurement before the merger decision was taken based on administrative and executive considerations.

He added that continuous review is a key feature of government work, enabling corrective strategic decisions that achieve overall benefit.

The step could mark the beginning of merging other interrelated government entities across sectors and services, contributing to more dynamic operations, faster completion, higher-quality outputs and better handling of challenges.

Shared factors

Osama bin Ghanem Al-Obaidi, adviser and professor of international commercial law, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision comes at an ideal time to achieve the goals of Vision 2030 by unifying efforts, simplifying procedures and creating a more efficient and globally competitive business environment.

Al-Obaidi said several shared factors made the merger a logical step, most notably improving the business environment, supporting the private sector, working with government entities to develop regulations, linking with competitiveness indicators, supporting economic transformation and implementing reforms, as well as relying on studies and economic analysis.

He added that the core common factor was that both entities were working along nearly the same axis of raising the competitiveness of the Saudi economy and facilitating doing business, albeit from complementary angles, which explains their consolidation into a single entity.