UN Alert: Yemen’s Highlands Brace for Deadlier Floods Next Week

Yemenis ride motorcycles through a flooded street following heavy rain in Sanaa, Yemen (AFP)
Yemenis ride motorcycles through a flooded street following heavy rain in Sanaa, Yemen (AFP)
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UN Alert: Yemen’s Highlands Brace for Deadlier Floods Next Week

Yemenis ride motorcycles through a flooded street following heavy rain in Sanaa, Yemen (AFP)
Yemenis ride motorcycles through a flooded street following heavy rain in Sanaa, Yemen (AFP)

Much of Yemen’s Highlands should brace for deadlier downpours and floods in the coming week, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) said in a agrometeorological early warning bulletin it released Monday.

FAO also said the return of the Saif rainy season was with a rough start as storms flooded out streets in Sanaa, Al-Mahwit, Dhamar, Amran, Hajjah, Raymah, Ibb, Saadah, Taiz, Hadramaut, and Marib governorates.

According to the bulletin, field reports indicate that as flood water swept away critical infrastructure, 31 households were affected in Al-Haraziyah Al-Uliyah, and Al-Sufllah sub-districts of Salah district in Taiz governorate.

Overall, more than 9,000 families have been affected by floods across the country since the latter half of March.

The bulletin said that forecasts until mid-April favor the formation of heavy rainfall with a risk of major flooding.

Therefore, it warned that the stormy weather that has been disrupting livelihoods after leaving thousands of people across the country cut off from shelter, clean water, sanitation, and basic infrastructure on its way to the wreckage is expected to continue.

“Nearly all the flood-ravaged cities are expected to be affected by deadlier downpours that will put 22,000 people at risk of floods in Dnah catchment that extends across Sanaa and Dhamar governorates, 3,000 in Wadi Bana (Ibb and Lahj), 2,700 in Amasilah (Hadramaut), 1,700 in Maur (Hajjah), 1,600 in Alamanah (Al Jawf), and 1,500 in Tuban (Lahj),” according to FAO’s bulletin.

These areas and much of the Highlands should therefore brace for deadlier downpours and floods in the coming week, it warned.

While most parts of the Highlands have retained enough soil moisture to support the planting of cereal, farmers are advised to exercise caution as heavy rainfall tends to sweep away seeds which leads to poor distribution and sometimes affects germination.

Further, as heavy rainfall is likely to drench most parts of Yemen, bacterial diseases such as cholera outbreaks are expected to take their toll, especially in Internally Displaced People (IDP) camps where critical water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure has already been swept away.

Humanitarian interventions to reinforce hygiene facilities in these areas are therefore strongly encouraged, FAO said.

Local authorities in Yemen said more than 9,000 displaced families were affected by heavy rains that struck the central Marib province during the second half of March.

In a statement released last month, the Executive Unit for IDPs Camps Management appealed to the UN and humanitarian organizations “to urgently intervene to aid those affected and provide their basic needs of foodstuffs and accommodation.”

The Unit said people living in refugee camps were most affected as they live in tents and makeshift shelters, adding that most shelters were damaged by the heavy winds and rain.

The statement also warned that the continued flooding and rainfall may threaten the lives of nearly 2 million refugees living in 197 camps and gatherings in Marib.

Last month, the Executive Unit for IDPs said that from 1 January to 28 February 2023, it monitored 1,924 households (11,123 individuals) who were displaced from 20 different governorates. They were distributed among 10 governorates.

It added that 27% of these households were displaced from Taiz governorate, 25% of them were displaced from Abyan, and 21% of them were displaced from Hodeidah and Marib governorates.

Meanwhile, 27% of the households were displaced from the governorates of Lahj, Ibb, Al Bayda, Sanaa, Al Jawf, Dhamar, Raymah, Sanaa City, Amran, Hajjah, Shabwah, Al Mahwit, Ad Dali, Aden and Hadramaut.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”