IMF Sees Global Growth Below 3% in 2023

International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
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IMF Sees Global Growth Below 3% in 2023

International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to dip below 3% in 2023 and to remain around 3% for the next five years, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in prepared remarks on Thursday.

That is the global lender's lowest medium-term growth forecast since 1990, and well below the average growth of 3.8% seen in the past two decades, Reuters reported.

Georgieva said strong and coordinated monetary and fiscal policy actions to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine had prevented a much worse outcome in recent years, but growth prospects remained weak in both the near- and medium-term given persistently high inflation.

"Despite surprisingly resilient labor markets and consumer spending in most advanced economies, and the uplift from China’s reopening, we expect the world economy to grow less than 3 percent in 2023," she said in prepared remarks ahead of next week's spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

"With rising geopolitical tensions and still-high inflation, a robust recovery remains elusive. This harms the prospects of everyone, especially for the most vulnerable people and countries," she said at an event hosted by Meridian House and Politico.

Growth dropped by almost half to 3.4% in 2022 following the shock of Russia's war in Ukraine from the 6.1% rebound seen in 2021.

She said India and China would account for half of global growth in 2023, but about 90% of advanced economies would see a decline in their growth rate this year.

Low-income countries, saddled by higher borrowing costs and weakening demand for their exports, would see per-capita income growth staying below that of emerging economies, she said.

The IMF chief called on central banks to stay the course in the fight against inflation as long as financial pressures remained limited, but to address financial stability risks when they emerge through appropriate provision of liquidity.



Oil Steadies as Market Awaits Fresh US Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Steadies as Market Awaits Fresh US Tariffs

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as traders remained cautious ahead of US tariffs due to be announced at 2000 GMT, fearing they could exacerbate a global trade war and dampen demand for crude.

Brent futures were down 7 cents, or 0.09%, at $74.42 a barrel by 0858 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 5 cents, or 0.07%, to $71.15.

The White House confirmed on Tuesday that President Donald Trump will impose new tariffs on Wednesday, though it provided no detail on the size and scope of the trade barriers, according to Reuters.

Trump's tariff policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and escalate trade disputes.

"Crude prices have paused last month's rally, with Brent finding some resistance above $75, with the focus for now turning from a sanctions-led reduction in supply to Trump's tariff announcement and its potential negative impact on growth and demand," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Traders will be watching for levies on crude imports, potentially driving up prices of refined products, he added.

For weeks Trump has touted April 2 as "Liberation Day", bringing new duties that could rattle the global trade system.

The White House announcement is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT).

"The balance of risk lies to the downside, given that weaker than expected tariff measures are unlikely to drive a significant rally in Brent, while stronger than expected measures could trigger a substantial selloff," BMI analysts said in a note.

Trump has also threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil and on Monday he ramped up sanctions on Iran as part of his administration's "maximum pressure" campaign to cut its exports.

"Markets likely to be volatile ahead of the final announcements on tariffs and the scale of them. The threat of secondary tariffs on Russian crude continues to provide some support for prices, with more downside risk at present around tariff uncertainty," said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

US oil and fuel inventories painted a mixed picture of supply and demand in the world's biggest producer and consumer.

US crude oil inventories rose by 6 million barrels in the week ended March 28, according to sources citing the American Petroleum Institute. Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 1.6 million barrels and distillate stocks were down by 11,000 barrels, the sources said.

Official US crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.