The Taiwan Strait -- A History of Crises

The harbor on Taiwan's Nangan island in the Matsu islands with a view of Fujian province, China, on April 10, 2023. (AFP)
The harbor on Taiwan's Nangan island in the Matsu islands with a view of Fujian province, China, on April 10, 2023. (AFP)
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The Taiwan Strait -- A History of Crises

The harbor on Taiwan's Nangan island in the Matsu islands with a view of Fujian province, China, on April 10, 2023. (AFP)
The harbor on Taiwan's Nangan island in the Matsu islands with a view of Fujian province, China, on April 10, 2023. (AFP)

Ever since Communist China and Taiwan broke away from each other at the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the waterway separating them has been a geopolitical flashpoint.

The Taiwan Strait, just 130 kilometers (80 miles) wide at its narrowest point, is a major international shipping channel and all that lies between democratic, self-ruled Taiwan and its giant neighbor.

With Beijing conducting a third day of military drills around the island, here is a look at the major China-Taiwan crises since 1949:

First Taiwan Strait Crisis

Mao Zedong's communist forces successfully pushed out Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists, who relocated to Taiwan, at the end of the Chinese Civil War.

The two rivals -- the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland and the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan -- stood on either side of the strait.

The First Taiwan Strait Crisis broke out in August 1954 when the Nationalists placed thousands of troops on Taiwan-ruled Kinmen and Matsu, two small islands just a few miles from the mainland.

China responded with artillery bombardment of the islands and the successful capture of the Yijiangshan Islands, about 400 kilometers north of Taipei.

The crisis was eventually defused but brought China and the United States to the brink of direct conflict.

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

Fighting broke out again in 1958 as Mao's forces conducted an intense bombardment of Kinmen and Matsu in another bid to dislodge Nationalist troops.

Concerned that the loss of the islands might lead to the collapse of the Nationalists and Beijing's eventual takeover of Taiwan, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower ordered his military to escort and resupply their Taiwanese allies.

The United States at one point even briefly considered deploying nuclear weapons against China.

Unable to take the offshore islands or bombard the Nationalists into submission, Beijing announced a ceasefire.

Mao's forces would still intermittently shell Kinmen up to 1979, but an otherwise tense stalemate set in.

Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

It would be another 37 years before the next crisis.

In the intervening decades, China and Taiwan both changed considerably.

China remained Communist Party-controlled following Mao's death but began a period of reform and opening up to the world.

Taiwan began shaking off Chiang's authoritarian years and evolved into a progressive democracy, with many embracing a distinctly Taiwanese -- not Chinese -- identity.

Tensions exploded again in 1995 when China began test-firing missiles in the waters around Taiwan to protest against a visit by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to his alma mater in the United States.

Beijing loathed Lee because he favored Taiwan declaring itself an independent state.

Further missile tests were carried out a year later as Taiwan held its first direct presidential election.

The display backfired.

The United States sent two aircraft carrier groups to push China into backing down and Lee won the election by a large margin.

A year later, Newt Gingrich became the first US House speaker to visit Taiwan.

Largest-ever exercises

It took over 25 years before the next House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, went to Taiwan.

Following Nancy Pelosi's visit in August 2022, China unleashed its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan, sending warships, missiles and fighter jets around the island.

Taipei condemned the drills and missile tests as preparation for an invasion.

Less than a year later, Tsai arrived in Los Angeles to meet Pelosi's successor, Kevin McCarthy, setting off another round of Chinese military exercises.

Analysts had initially said that Tsai meeting McCarthy in the United States may placate Beijing and avert a military show of strength.

But on Saturday, China began three days of military drills it described as "a stern warning" to Taiwan over the meeting.

The drills included simulated strikes on the island. On Monday, China was scheduled to conduct live-fire drills.



Iran Scrambles to Swiftly Build Ties with Syria’s New Rulers

A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)
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Iran Scrambles to Swiftly Build Ties with Syria’s New Rulers

A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)

The Iranian government is scrambling to restore some of its influence in Syria as it still reels from the shock ouster of its close ally President Bashar al-Assad on December 8.

The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is already facing multiple domestic and international crises, including an economy in shambles and continued tensions over its nuclear program. But it is the sudden loss of influence in Syria after the fall of Assad to opposition groups that is exercising Iranian officials most, reported The Guardian on Friday.

“In the short term they want to salvage some influence with the opposition in Damascus. Iranian diplomats insist they were not wedded to Assad, and were disillusioned with his refusal to compromise,” it said.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview this week: “We had long ago reached the conclusion that the continuation of governance in Syria would face a fundamental challenge. Government officials were expected to show flexibility towards allowing the opposition to participate in power, but this did not happen.”

He added: “Tehran always had direct contacts with the Syrian opposition delegation. Since 2011, we have been suggesting to Syria the need to begin political talks with those opposition groups that were not affiliated with terrorism.”

At the same time, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson insisted it only entered Syria in 2012 at Assad’s request to help defeat ISIS, continued The Guardian. “Our presence was advisory and we were never in Syria to defend a specific group or individual. What was important to us was helping to preserve the territorial integrity and stability of Syria,” he said.

Such explanations have not cut much ice in Damascus. Iran remains one of the few countries criticized by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader.

Short honeymoon

Many Iranian officials are claiming the current victory lap being enjoyed by Türkiye in Syria may be brief as Ankara’s interests will start to diverge from the government led by the HTS.

Senior cleric Naser Makarem Shirazi said: “We must follow the Syrian issue with hope and know that this situation will not continue, because the current rulers of Syria will not remain united with each other”.

The conservative Javan newspaper predicted that “the current honeymoon period in Syria will end due to the diversity of groups, economic problems, the lack of security and diversity of actors.”.

Officially Iran blames the US and Israel for Assad’s collapse, but resentment at Ankara’s role is rife, ironically echoing Donald Trump’s claim that Syria has been the victim of an unfriendly takeover by Türkiye.

In his speech responding to Assad’s downfall supreme leader Ali Khamenei said a neighboring state of Syria played a clear role” in shaping events and “continues to do so now”. The Fars news agency published a poster showing the HTS leader in league with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Benjamin Netanyahu and Joe Biden.

Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations questioned whether HTS would remain allies with Türkiye for long. It said: “Although Türkiye is only one of the main winners of Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in the short term, Ankara can never bring a government aligned with itself to power in Syria. Even if HTS attempts to form a stable government in Syria, which is impossible, in the medium term, it will become a major threat to Türkiye, which shares an 830-kilometer border with Syria.”

Reliance on Türkiye

Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani predicted a bleak future for Syria and Türkiye. “In recent weeks, all of Syria’s military power has been destroyed by Israel, and unfortunately, the militants and Türkiye did not respond appropriately to Israel. It will take years to rebuild the Syrian army and armed forces.”

Mohsen Baharvand, a former Iranian ambassador to the UK, suggested the Damascus government may find itself overly reliant on Türkiye. “If the central government of Syria tries to consolidate its authority and sovereignty through military intervention and assistance from foreign countries – including Türkiye – Syria, or key parts of it, will be occupied by Türkiye, and Türkiye will enter a quagmire from which it will incur heavy human and economic costs.”

He predicted tensions between Türkiye and the HTS in particular about how to handle the Syrian Kurdish demand in north-east Syria for a form of autonomy. The Turkish-funded Syrian National Army is reportedly ready to mount an offensive against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in Kobani, a Kurdish-majority Syrian town on the northern border with Türkiye.

Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday that if the issue were addressed “properly” Ankara would not seek a military intervention. “There is a new administration in Damascus now. I think this is primarily their concern now,” Fidan said.

More broadly, the Syrian reverse is forcing Iran to accelerate a rethink of its foreign policy. The review centers on whether the weakening of its so-called Axis of Resistance – comprising allied groups in the region – requires Iran to become a nuclear weapon state, or instead strengthen Iran by building better relations in the region.

For years, Iran’s rulers have been saying that “defending Iran must begin from outside its borders.” This hugely costly strategy is largely obsolete, and how Iran explains its Syria reverse will be critical to deciding what replaces that strategy.