Lebanon: Divorce between Aoun, Hezbollah Is Final

Hezbollah is accused of stabbing the FPM several times in the back.

Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)
Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)
TT

Lebanon: Divorce between Aoun, Hezbollah Is Final

Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)
Then FPM leader Michel Aoun and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah shake hands as they declare their understanding in February 2006. (Reuters)

A Lebanese official following the relations between former President Michel Aoun with Hezbollah said the “marriage” between them, which was held at a Maronite church in Beirut’s southern suburbs in 2006, is over.

All that is left is for them to announce the official divorce, marking an end to an alliance between two of the most opposite parties in Lebanon.

Many had believed that the understanding - signed at the Mar Mikhael church in February 2006 between then head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Michel Aoun and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah - was doomed to fail.

Even though it brought two parties that could not be any more different, their understanding turned out to be a solid alliance wherein the personal relations between Aoun and Nasrallah played a big role in consolidating it, leading to a major change in Lebanon’s political identity.

However, Aoun’s political successor, his son-in-law and MP Gebran Bassil played a major role in ruining the understanding, leading to its collapse and now, divorce.

The FPM and Hezbollah achieved major gains from the alliance. Hezbollah gained sizeable Christian cover for its arsenal of weapons, while the FPM gained unlimited support in internal files that allowed it at first to control Christian shares in governments and then state institutions. The alliance also allowed Aoun to be elected president after two years of vacuum in the country’s top post.

Ironically, Aoun’s election as president marked the beginning of the end of the alliance. As soon as Aoun became head of state, he found himself at great odds with influential parliament Speaker Nabi Berri, a major ally of Hezbollah.

Aoun believed that Hezbollah’s support to him in domestic affairs must be unlimited, but the party chose to take the middle ground and avoid confronting Berri out of its keenness on the “unity of Shiite ranks.” Aoun was very disappointed, openly informing his guests that Berri was the greatest obstacle to his presidential achievements and Hezbollah did not intervene to rein in its ally.

Aoun believes that Berri was the major obstacle that hindered the success of his term as president – an argument that many agree with. Hezbollah chose to take a “hands off” approach in internal files, prioritizing its regional role.

Berri, however, did not take a “hands off” approach. He confronted Aoun’s ambitions in state institutions. The speaker is a main political player and refused to turn into an “affiliate” to Aoun, said one of the figures close to him. The lack of “political chemistry” between Aoun and Berri was obvious to them and others from the start.

Aoun’s term in office ended with a vacuum in the presidency with political parties failing to elect a successor. The way Hezbollah is approaching the vacuum has dealt a strong blow to the alliance with Aoun.

The party is clear in backing the candidacy of former minister Suleiman Franjieh, but Bassil, now head of the FPM, has strongly rejected this choice. He believes that he has made a great sacrifice by refraining from nominating himself, calling on Hezbollah to reach an understanding with him over a “third choice”.

Nasrallah and Bassil met, with the former frankly telling him that Franjieh was their choice. Bassil strongly opposed the suggestion. Nasrallah told him to think about it, but Bassil was adamant in rejecting Franjieh.

Other points of contention were related to the caretaker government. The FPM argued that the government, in its caretaker capacity, could not hold meetings amid the presidential vacuum. Hezbollah disagreed and granted the needed quorum for the cabinet meetings to be held. Bassil was furious, striking below the belt by speaking of “honest parties who renege on the agreement, vow and guarantee.” The party was forced to respond openly to the accusation, the first time it had done so since the 2006 understanding.

The relationship between Hezbollah and the FPM was based partially on the latter’s support of the party's conflict with Israel. In return, the party would support the FPM in domestic political affairs, leading to a “balanced partnership”, as Bassil has told his visitors. An imbalance in this equation will break the partnership. On whether Hezbollah’s latest positions were viewed as a stab in the back, Bassil’s visitors said: “There are many knives in the back this time.”

Hezbollah and Bassil’s ties were never completely rosy. Bassil never shied away from criticizing the party every now and then. His biggest reservation was that the party prioritized its relations with Shiites over all else. According to Bassil, this “encouraged corruption and prevented the rise of state institutions.” Bassil went so far as to tell his visitors that Hezbollah fought for Aoun to be elected president and when he finally became so, it did not support him in the battle to build the state, abandoning him before his rivals.

Bassil’s visitors said he was clear with Hezbollah over the need to agree on another presidential candidate besides Franjieh. “If they believe he is maneuvering or seeking something else in return, they are wrong and it would be a big problem if the party believes so,” they added.

Bassil has said that the relationship between the FPM and Hezbollah was perfect. “We were capable of reaching understandings with foreign parties, while in return, the resistance [Hezbollah] would perform its duty in protecting the nation,” he was quoted as saying.

In short, Bassil believed that the 2006 understanding with Hezbollah changed Lebanon's identity and if the relations with the party were to collapse, then Lebanon’s identity will again be changed.

Hezbollah’s view

In return, Hezbollah appears unconvinced of Bassil’s justifications. An official close to the party said the divorce has happened with the party and they are now awaiting the official announcement. He stressed, however, that the announcement will not be made by the party, leaving it up to Bassil.

The official disagrees with the Aounist camp’s claims that the FPM’s support for Hezbollah gave the former free reign in domestic affairs. “They are giving the party support it doesn’t need. It is already a regional power and recognized as so by the world,” he remarked.

Internally, he said the “weight” of the alliance with the FPM “cost Hezbollah several of its Christian friends and strained its relations with other parties because it was always siding with Bassil.”

Moreover, he added that the formation of governments was obstructed on numerous occasions “just so Bassil could get what he wanted. The parliament was also obstructed just so Aoun could be elected president.”

The party is clear in saying that Bassil takes issues personally. It holds him responsible for the failure to form a new government before Aoun’s term ended. At the time, Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati agreed to Bassil’s conditions, but at the very last minute, the FPM leader said he would not support the new lineup even though he was to be granted shares other than those of the president and the greatest number of seats as he demanded.

Even in rejecting Franjieh’s nomination, Hezbollah believes that Bassil is taking issues personally. The official said the MP constantly tries to undermine Franjieh’s image and influence, even calling him by his first name, without any of his titles.

The official added, however, that he has not ruled out the possibility that Bassil could take advantage of the political upheaval and possibility of the United States lifting sanctions on him to emerge as a leading candidate for the presidency. Hezbollah does not have a Plan B to deal with such a scenario, acknowledged the official.



Hurdles Remain as Israel and Hamas Once Again Inch toward a Ceasefire Deal

 A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)
A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)
TT

Hurdles Remain as Israel and Hamas Once Again Inch toward a Ceasefire Deal

 A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)
A tent camp for displaced Palestinians is set up amid destroyed buildings in the Khan Younis refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. (AP)

Israel and Hamas once again appear to be inching toward a ceasefire that could wind down the 15-month war in Gaza and bring home dozens of Israelis held hostage there.

Both Israel and Hamas are under pressure from outgoing US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump to reach a deal before the Jan. 20 inauguration. But the sides have come close before, only to have talks collapse over various disagreements.

The latest round of negotiations has bogged down over the names of hostages to be released in a first phase, according to Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing ongoing negotiations.

Israel wants assurances that the hostages are alive, while Hamas says that after months of heavy fighting, it isn't sure who is alive or dead.

Other hurdles remain.

The first phase, expected to last for six to eight weeks, would also include a halt in fighting, a release of Palestinian prisoners and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, according to the officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war, and talks on reconstruction and who will govern Gaza going forward.

“If we don’t get it across the finish line in the next two weeks, I’m confident that it will get to completion at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Seoul on Monday.

Here’s a closer look at the key issues holding up a deal:

The release of hostages from Gaza

During its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, Hamas and other groups killed some 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages into Gaza. A truce in November 2023 freed more than 100 hostages, while others have been rescued or their remains have been recovered over the past year.

Israel says about 100 hostages remain in Gaza — at least a third of whom it believes were killed during the Oct. 7 attack or died in captivity.

The first batch of hostages to be released is expected to be made up mostly of women, older people and people with medical conditions, according to the Israeli, Egyptian and Hamas officials.

On Monday, Hamas released a list of 34 names of hostages it said were slated for release. An Egyptian official confirmed the list had been the focus of recent discussions.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the names were from a list Israel had submitted months ago. “As of now, Israel has not received any confirmation or comment by Hamas regarding the status of the hostages appearing on the list,” it said.

An Israeli official said the current impasse was due to Hamas' refusal to provide information on the conditions of the hostages, while another official said the departure of the head of the Mossad intelligence agency for negotiations in Qatar was on hold.

A Hamas official, meanwhile, said that “no one knows” the conditions of all of the hostages. Hamas officials have said that due to the war, they cannot provide a full accounting until there is a truce.

Since the war began, over 45,800 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to local health authorities, who say women and children make up more than half of those killed. They do not say how many of the dead were fighters.

Pausing the war or ending it?

Families of hostages reacted angrily to reports of the phased approach, saying the government should instead be pursuing a deal that releases all the captives at once. They say time is running out to bring people home safely.

“This morning, I and everyone in Israel woke up and discovered that the state of Israel has put together a Schindler's List — 34 people who will be able to hug their families again, and 66 others whose fate will be sealed,” said Yotam Cohen, whose brother Nimrod, an Israeli soldier held hostage, did not appear on the published list.

Netanyahu has said he supports a partial deal that pauses the war, but he has rejected Hamas' demands for a full Israeli withdrawal that would end the war. Netanyahu has vowed to continue fighting until he achieves “total victory” — including the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities.

Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Hamas. But the group continues to stage attacks in Gaza and to fire rockets into Israel. That could portend an open-ended war that could drag on for months or years.

The Hostages Forum, a grassroots group representing many hostage families, said it was time for a comprehensive deal.

“We know more than half are still alive and need immediate rehabilitation, while those who were murdered must be returned for proper burial,” it said. “We have no more time to waste. A hostage ceasefire agreement must be sealed now!”

The release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel

As part of the deal, Israel is expected to free hundreds of imprisoned Palestinians, including dozens who were convicted in bloody attacks.

Israel has a history of large-scale prisoner releases, and hundreds were freed in the November 2023 deal. But the sides have disagreed over the exact number and names of the prisoners to be freed. Hamas wants high-profile prisoners included. Israeli officials have ruled out the release of Marwan Barghouti, who tops Hamas' wish list.

Netanyahu's governing coalition includes hardliners who oppose such releases, with some even pledging to quit the government if too many concessions are made. They point to a 2011 prisoner release that included the former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks who was killed by Israel in October.

The war has displaced an estimated 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, according to UN estimates, with the hard-hit northern sector of the territory largely emptied of its prewar population.

During the first phase of the developing deal, Israel is expected to withdraw troops from Palestinian population centers and allow some of the displaced to return home. But the extent of the pullback and the number of people allowed to return must still be worked out, the officials say.