Sudan Conflict Deals New Blow to Stagnant Economy

Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
TT

Sudan Conflict Deals New Blow to Stagnant Economy

Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
Sudanese residents shop in a bazaar in Khartoum, Sudan, May 4, 2019. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

The conflict shaking Sudan has dealt a crippling blow to the heart of the country's economy in the capital Khartoum, as well as disrupting internal trade routes, threatening imports and triggering a cash crunch.

Across swathes of the capital factories, banks, shops and markets have been looted or damaged, power and water supplies have been failing, and residents have reported steep price rises and shortages of basic goods.

Even before the fighting between military factions broke out on April 15 Sudan's economy had been in deep stagnation following a crisis stretching back to the last years of Omar al-Bashir's rule and turmoil after his overthrow in 2019, Reuters said.

Tens of thousands have now fled the violence in Khartoum and its sister cities of Bahri and Omdurman, while millions more have sheltered at home as shelling and air strikes rattle across neighborhoods.

Transport of goods and people has slowed as troops and sometimes gangs roam the streets. Telecom networks have become unreliable and some say they have begun rationing food and water.

"We are afraid, and we are suffering from high prices, shortages, and lack of salaries. This is a war on the citizen," said Ismail Elhassan, an employee at one Khartoum business.

Sudan, already an important exporter of gum arabic, sesame, peanuts, and livestock, has the potential to be a major agricultural and livestock exporter and logistics hub.

But the economy has been held back by decades of sanctions and international isolation, as well as deep corruption. Most Sudanese have struggled with years of rampant inflation, sharp currency devaluations and sliding living standards. About a third of the 46 million population depends on humanitarian aid.

NO DRIVERS

The conflict has hampered trade flows in and out of the East African nation, since banking and customs procedures are centralized in Khartoum. While the country's main port on the Red Sea is operating, at least one big shipping company, Maersk, says it has stopped taking bookings until further notice.

Imports of wheat, key to Sudan's food security, are becoming more difficult, said one Khartoum-based trader. Imports of white goods such as refrigerators across the land border with Egypt, where tens of thousands of Sudanese have fled northwards, have also slowed, said Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce secretary-general Alaa Ezz.

Michel Sidhom, a supply chain manager at a trading company operating in Egypt and Sudan, said its business in Sudan had "completely stopped" as exports of Egyptian fertilizers and flour, typically about 10,000 tons per month each, were halted.

Egypt, Sudan's second biggest destination for livestock, a key export, said it is looking to diversify its sources as a result of the unrest.

Sidhom says his company's traders in Sudan have left Khartoum, and no drivers are willing to risk transporting their goods to the capital city.

"They shut down and left Khartoum until further notice. Whoever stays in Khartoum stays in a battlefield," he said.

SCARCITY, HIGH PRICES

Shortages of items such as flour and vegetables have been reported in Khartoum along with price hikes. Long queues form in front of bakeries and supermarkets in the capital.

The price of one kilogram of lamb has jumped nearly 30% to 4,500 pounds ($7.52), according to a Reuters reporter, while the price of a kilogram of tomatoes doubled to 1,000 pounds ($1.67).

A supermarket owner in Omdurman blamed the inflation on soaring black market fuel prices. A gallon of scarce fuel can now cost as much as 40,000 pounds ($67), up from 2,000 pounds ($3.34).

Even in places where fighting has abated demand is low, said one Omdurman butcher. "Everyone's left," he said.

Sudan's pound has lost about 600% against the dollar since 2018, prompting many to save money in dollars.

Traders in Khartoum face a cash crunch, and people are increasingly dependent on an electronic wallet app known as Bankak, which often suffers outages, to pay bills.

The black market has become distorted, as relatives abroad seek to sell dollars for Bankak transfers, while those in the country seek dollars for safe keeping.

Currency traders offer dollars at rates as high as 700 pounds ($1.17), while buying at as little as 300 pounds ($0.5014), with prices varying widely as transport and communication becomes more difficult.

Sudan's central bank on Sunday said banks outside the capital were carrying out withdrawal and deposit transactions. Within Khartoum, the army and RSF have accused each other of looting banks. The head of one Khartoum bank said he was trying to temporarily move the bank's headquarters outside the capital.

Another executive said that in years of economic reforms, coups, and protests, "this is the biggest challenge to face the banking system, and threatens an almost complete shutdown," he said.

In the city of Atbara, north-east of Khartoum, crowds of people were seen outside of banks, some of which had imposed withdrawal limits.

"My cash has run out because I haven't received my salary and the banking apps don't work," said Elhassan, speaking from Khartoum.



Thiaw Ahead of COP16: $355 Billion Needed Annually to Combat Desertification

Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
TT

Thiaw Ahead of COP16: $355 Billion Needed Annually to Combat Desertification

Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
Ibrahim Thiaw, Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)

With the 16th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (COP16) set to take place in Riyadh in early December, the world is focusing on solutions to one of the planet’s most urgent environmental challenges.

Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the convention, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the global economic cost of desertification is estimated at $878 billion annually. He emphasized that increased investment is essential to restore degraded lands and address this pressing issue effectively.

COP16 will gather global leaders and policymakers to explore strategies for combating drought and advancing green initiatives both regionally and globally. Thiaw highlighted the critical funding gap in combating desertification. From 2025 to 2030, the world will need $355 billion annually, but current funding levels are only $77 billion, leaving a $278 billion shortfall, he said, adding that without urgent action, 100 million hectares of land could degrade each year, directly impacting 1.3 billion people.

Uncontrolled land degradation poses severe risks, including up to a 50% reduction in crop yields in some regions by 2050, according to Thiaw. He noted that this decline would drive food prices up by 30% and significantly worsen food insecurity, especially in vulnerable areas. By mid-century, half of the global grain supply could face extreme water scarcity. The annual economic toll of desertification, land degradation, and drought represents approximately 2% of global GDP.

Thiaw expressed hope that COP16 will achieve tangible progress by prioritizing investments in land restoration to enhance resilience against drought. He emphasized that restoring degraded lands could significantly improve soil health, potentially boosting global crop yields by 2% by 2050. This progress would be particularly impactful in regions like the Middle East and North Africa.

Implementing sustainable land management practices could also mitigate the effects of drought by improving water retention and increasing ecosystem resilience. In this regard, the executive secretary of COP16 stressed the importance of partnerships among governments, international organizations, and the private sector to attract investments and fund sustainable projects. He pointed to public-private collaborations and blended financing as key mechanisms, alongside international support through grants and loans, especially in Africa, where the annual investment gap stands at $191 billion.

Thiaw further said that restoring land addresses multiple global challenges, including food security, poverty, climate change, biodiversity loss, and forced migration. He underlined the role of sustainable agriculture in improving soil health, creating green jobs, and building community resilience, while ensuring long-term sustainability.

Moreover, emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, are crucial for monitoring land degradation and enabling timely interventions. Thiaw encouraged countries to adopt these technologies to improve land management and restoration efforts.

He also highlighted the vital role of women in combating desertification, noting that while women produce 80% of the world’s food, they own less than 20% of its land. Empowering women and securing their land rights could lead to more sustainable practices and strengthen communities’ resilience to desertification and drought, he stated.