As of the end of last week, markets were in an emphatic “risk-on” phase. After the initial shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the S&P 500 had regained a stunning 6.6% in two days’ trading. I argued that the market was working on the assumption that Vladimir Putin would get what he wanted, and…

How to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because — unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price — it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst and then…

The prime ministers of the UK and France rolled up their sleeves on Friday and took the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine. But that didn’t happen in Denmark, Norway and Sweden, where all AstraZeneca vaccinations remain suspended. If that wasn’t confusing enough, France announced that the vaccine was…

Welcome to a new year. Rarely if ever can so many have wished so fervently for the old one to end. The start of 2021 brings a sense of renewal and possibility. The problem is that a turn in the calendar doesn’t itself change anything else. The view from my window is the same as it was last year…

As the year began, so it is ending. Early in 2020, the pandemic blindsided governments, which dithered over both the scientific and moral imperatives while much of the populace indulged in selfish and conflicted behavior that seemed to belong in “Glengarry Glen Ross” or “Lord of the Flies” rather…

It’s time for some good news. A few hours before I wrote this, my father (who is 83 and had a nasty case of pneumonia a few years ago) phoned to tell me that he will be having his first Covid-19 vaccination shot this week, with a second to follow in the first week of January. My 81-year-old mother…

Volatility is back. Monday saw the VIX index, which tracks how investors spend to hedge against volatility in options markets, jump above 30 for the first time since the brief but violent correction for FANG stocks in early September. That correction was very much internally generated, as a buildup…

What will be the long-term consequences of the pandemic? Few if any answers are clear. In the financial realm, markets have automatic checks, balances and stabilizers. Tracing the impact of the last few months into the future soon becomes like plotting out an attack in chess. You can try to predict…

Is there a deeper wave than this? Britain is once again tearing itself apart over how to respond to Covid-19, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing an insurrection from his own MPs over plans for sweeping second lockdowns to combat the coronavirus. Worries about an uptick in cases in the US have…