Expectations on OPEC’s Success to Curb Oil Output in 2018

A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Company near Guthrie, Oklahoma, US, September 15, 2015. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Company near Guthrie, Oklahoma, US, September 15, 2015. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Expectations on OPEC’s Success to Curb Oil Output in 2018

A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Company near Guthrie, Oklahoma, US, September 15, 2015. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Company near Guthrie, Oklahoma, US, September 15, 2015. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

OPEC and Russia’s efforts to curb oil output, combined with forecasts for strong global demand growth, are expected to keep crude prices close to $60 a barrel in 2018, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.

The survey of 32 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude LCOc1 would average $59.88 a barrel in 2018, up from the $58.84 forecast in the previous monthly poll.

Oil prices, which hit 2-1/2 year highs this week, have rallied by more than 30 percent since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers agreed to limit production from January 2017.

The producers last month extended the deal to curb output throughout 2018. 

“Oil demand will be high in 2018, with solid economic growth worldwide ... Supply will be relatively tight because of high OPEC commitment,” said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW.

Large supplies of crude will head to Asia to satisfy strong demand from the region, analysts said.

US exports to Asia have already increased with higher Middle East oil prices because of the OPEC-led output cuts and a wide WTI-Brent spread.

US light crude CLc1 was expected to average $55.78 a barrel next year, up from last month’s forecast of $54.78.

Strong OPEC compliance with the supply pact should lend support to prices, analysts said. However, price rise will be capped by booming shale output in the United States, which is not participating in the global deal to curb production.

Total crude oil imports to China, one of the world’s biggest oil consumers, rebounded to the second-highest level on record in November at 9.01 million barrels per day (bpd).

US oil production C-OUT-T-EIA, which has risen more than 16 percent since mid-2016, is expected to surpass 10 million bpd next year, some analysts said.

“We see US supply continuing to grow next year but are less concerned about a sudden supply glut re-emerging as rising D&C (drilling and completion) costs will likely slow production growth,” said Ashley Petersen of Stratas Advisors.

Production disruptions in Libya and Nigeria and a possible renewal of US sanctions on Iran are also likely to support prices in 2018, analysts said.



Greece Headed for ‘Record Year’ for Tourism, Says Minister

Tourists descent Propylaia, the ancient gate of the Acropolis archaeological site in Athens on June 21, 2023. (AFP)
Tourists descent Propylaia, the ancient gate of the Acropolis archaeological site in Athens on June 21, 2023. (AFP)
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Greece Headed for ‘Record Year’ for Tourism, Says Minister

Tourists descent Propylaia, the ancient gate of the Acropolis archaeological site in Athens on June 21, 2023. (AFP)
Tourists descent Propylaia, the ancient gate of the Acropolis archaeological site in Athens on June 21, 2023. (AFP)

Greece is on track for "another record year" for tourism in 2025, despite ongoing labor shortages in a key sector of its economy, Tourism Minister Olga Kefalogianni said on Sunday.

Between January and the end of September, the Mediterranean nation -- long beloved by tourists for its sunny islands and rich archaeological sites -- welcomed 31.6 million visitors, a four-percent increase compared with the same period in 2024, according to Bank of Greece data published in late November.

"Overall, we expect 2025 to be another record year for tourism in our country," Kefalogianni said in an interview with the Greek news agency ANA.

The conservative minister also expressed hope for another bumper year in 2026.

"The indicators for 2026 are already particularly encouraging and allow us to be optimistic," she said.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, Greece has been breaking annual records in tourism revenues and the number of foreign visitors.

Across 2024, 40.7 million people visited Greece, up 12.8 percent from 2023.

But the uptick has sparked concern over the unchecked construction in several hotspots, while Athens locals have complained that the proliferation of short-term holiday lets has caused rents to skyrocket.

Climate change-fueled heatwaves and increasingly devastating wildfires also pose a threat to the sector, which Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has trumpeted since taking office in 2019 in a bid to revive the economy after the financial crisis.

According to the Institute of the Greek Tourism Confederation (INSETE), tourism directly contributed around 13 percent of GDP in 2024 and indirectly to more than 30 percent of GDP.


Iraq Says International Firms in Kurdistan Obliged to Transfer Crude Under Deal

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)
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Iraq Says International Firms in Kurdistan Obliged to Transfer Crude Under Deal

A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)
A handout picture released by Iraq's Prime Minister's Media Office on January 2, 2025, shows a partial view of the oil refinery of Baiji north of Baghdad, during the inauguration ceremony of the fourth and fifth units. (Iraqi Prime Minister's Media Office / AFP)

Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO said on Sunday international producers in Kurdistan were still obliged to send it their crude under a September export agreement, after Norway's DNO said it would not take part in the agreement. 

SOMO said its statement was in response to a Reuters report in ‌September which ‌quoted DNO as ‌saying ⁠it would ‌sell directly to the Kurdish region and had no immediate plans to ship through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline. 

The September deal between Iraq's oil ministry, Kurdistan's ministry of natural resources and producing companies stipulated that SOMO ⁠will export crude from Kurdish oil fields through ‌the Türkiye pipeline. 

At the ‍time, DNO - the ‍largest international oil producer active in ‍Kurdistan - welcomed the deal but did not sign it, saying it wanted more clarity on how outstanding debts would be paid. 

It said it would continue to sell directly to the semi-autonomous region of ⁠Kurdistan. 

SOMO said on Sunday the Kurdistan ministry of natural resources had reaffirmed its commitment to the deal "under which all international companies engaged in extraction and production in the region's fields are required to deliver the quantities of crude oil they produce in the region to SOMO, except for the quantities allocated ‌for local consumption in the region." 


How 2025 Decisions Redrew the Future of Riyadh’s Real Estate Market

Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
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How 2025 Decisions Redrew the Future of Riyadh’s Real Estate Market

Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)
Construction is seen at a real estate project in Riyadh. (SPA)

The Saudi capital underwent an unprecedented structural shift in its real estate market in 2025, driven by a forward-looking agenda led by Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister. Far from incremental regulation, the year’s measures amounted to a deep corrective overhaul aimed at dismantling long-standing distortions, breaking land hoarding, expanding affordable housing supply, and firmly rebalancing landlord-tenant relations.

Together, the decisions ended years of speculation fueled by artificial scarcity and pushed the market toward maturity, one grounded in real demand, fair pricing, and transparency.

Observers dubbed 2025 a “white revolution” for Saudi real estate. The reforms severed the link between property and short-term speculation, restoring housing as a sustainable residential and investment product. Below is a detailed outline of the most significant of these historic decisions:

1- Unlocking land, boosting supply

In March, authorities lifted restrictions on sale, subdivision, development permits, and planning approvals for 81 million square meters north of Riyadh. A similar decision in October freed another 33.24 million square meters to the west.

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City was also mandated to deliver 10,000 - 40,000 fully serviced plots annually at subsidized prices capped at SAR 1,500 per square meter, curbing price manipulation and offering real alternatives for citizens.

2- Rent controls and contractual fairness

To stabilize households and businesses, the government froze annual rent increases for residential and commercial leases in Riyadh for five years starting in September. Enforced through the upgraded “Ejar” platform, the move halted arbitrary hikes while aligning growth with residents’ quality of life.

3- Tougher fees

An improved White Land Tax took effect in August, extending beyond vacant plots to include unoccupied built properties. Annual fees rose to as much as 10% of land value for parcels of 5,000 square meters or more within urban limits, raising the cost of land hoarding and incentivizing prompt development.

4- Investment openness and digital governance

A revised foreign ownership regime allowed non-Saudis - individuals and companies - to own property in designated zones under strict criteria, injecting international liquidity. Transparency was reinforced by the launch of the “Real Estate Balance” platform, providing real-time price indicators based on actual transactions and curbing phantom pricing.

5- Quality and urban standards

Policy shifted from quantity to quality with mandatory application of the Saudi Building Code and sustainability standards for all new developments, ensuring long-term operational value and preventing low-quality sprawl.

Structural shift

Sector specialists told Asharq Al-Awsat the measures represent a qualitative leap in market management, moving Riyadh from a scarcity and speculation-led cycle to a balanced market governed by genuine demand, efficient land use, disciplined contracts, and transparent indicators.

Khaled Al-Mobid, CEO of Menassat Realty Co., said the reforms were timely and corrective after years of rapid price escalation. He noted early positives: slowing price growth, a return to realistic negotiations, increased supply in some districts, and better-quality offerings focused on intrinsic value rather than quick appreciation.

Abdullah Al-Moussa, a real estate expert and broker, described the steps as addressing root causes, not symptoms.

He observed a behavioral shift, especially in northern Riyadh, from “hold and wait” to reassessment, alongside calmer price momentum, renewed interest in actual development, and clearer rental dynamics.

Saqr Al-Zahrani, another market expert, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the reforms tackled structural imbalances by breaking artificial scarcity created by undeveloped land banks.

Opening vast tracts north and west and introducing market-wide indicators restored “organized abundance,” aligning prices with real demand and purchasing power without heavy-handed intervention, he remarked.

He added that recent months have seen weaker demand for raw land and stalled auctions, contrasted with rising interest in off-plan sales and partnerships with developers.

Banks, too, have reprioritized toward projects with operational viability, lifting overall supply quality despite a temporary slowdown in some transactions.

Consumers, meanwhile, are showing greater patience and interest in self-build options, signaling a maturing market awareness.

Outlook

Experts expect the effects to continue through 2027, delivering broad price stability with limited corrections in overheated locations rather than sharp declines.

Homeownership, especially among young buyers, is projected to rise as capital shifts from land speculation to long-term development.

The 2025 decisions were not short-term fixes but the launch of a new social and economic trajectory for Riyadh’s property market, redefining real estate as a housing service and value-adding investment, not a speculative vessel.

As Riyadh advances toward becoming one of the world’s ten largest city economies, its real estate reset offers a model for aligning regulation with quality of life, transparency, and sustainable growth.