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Int’l Crisis Group: Iraq Likely Theater of US-Iran Tension

A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)
A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)
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Int’l Crisis Group: Iraq Likely Theater of US-Iran Tension

A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)
A man burns tires during a protest demanding services and jobs during a demonstration in Basra, Iraq, Friday, July 13, 2018. (AP Photo)

The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that Iraq could turn into the main battlefield of confrontation between the United States and Iran.

Iraq could bear the brunt if conflict intensifies between Tehran and Washington, the think-tank said in a study released Wednesday.

ICG, which researches ways to prevent war, interviewed officials around the world including from Iran for an extensive report on the state of the 2015 denuclearization accord between Tehran and major powers.

The ICG said Iran would likely continue to comply with the deal, seeing itself as holding the moral high ground and capable of waiting out US President Donald Trump, who faces a re-election battle next year.

Trump has withdrawn the United States and ramped up economic pressure aimed at isolating Iran.

The study said that Tehran's calculations could change if its oil exports, which stood at 3.8 million barrels a day in 2017, fall below 700,000, a level that could trigger hyper-inflation and intensify domestic protests which for now appear manageable.

If Iran decides to retaliate against the United States, the report said that Tehran may find its most attractive option to be to employ its proxies around the Middle East, a path that would be murky enough to avoid a strong European reaction.

The report quoted a senior Iranian national security official as saying that the likeliest theater was Iraq, where militias from the Shiite majority have close ties with Tehran. 

"Iraq is where we have experience, plausible deniability and the requisite capability to hit the US below the threshold that would prompt a direct retaliation," the official was quoted as saying, according to Agence France Presse.

Iran is also deeply involved in Syria and Lebanon, but the two countries are especially fragile and Tehran could lose its gains, the official said.

Iran has limited assets in Afghanistan, while stepping up support for Houthi rebels in Yemen would hurt Saudi Arabia more than the United States, the official said.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump's hawkish national security advisor, John Bolton, asked for military options to strike Iran after an Iranian-linked group launched a mortar attack in September on Baghdad's "Green Zone," the protected area where the US embassy is located. The US says its embassy was the target.

No one was hurt and demonstrators also ransacked the Iranian consulate in Basra during the wave of protests over economic conditions in Iraq.

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World

UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Says Iran Inspection Accord ‘Terribly Difficult’

An Iranian woman walk past anti-US mural depicting Iran and US negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former US embassy, in Tehran on February 6, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian woman walk past anti-US mural depicting Iran and US negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former US embassy, in Tehran on February 6, 2026. (AFP)
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UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Says Iran Inspection Accord ‘Terribly Difficult’

An Iranian woman walk past anti-US mural depicting Iran and US negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former US embassy, in Tehran on February 6, 2026. (AFP)
An Iranian woman walk past anti-US mural depicting Iran and US negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former US embassy, in Tehran on February 6, 2026. (AFP)

The head of the UN nuclear watchdog Rafael Grossi said Friday that reaching an accord with Iran on inspections of its processing facilities was possible but "terribly difficult".

The International Atomic Energy Agency director general told the Munich Security Conference that inspectors had returned to Iran after attacks by Israeli and US forces last year but had not been able to visit any of the sites targeted.

The United States has positioned one aircraft carrier strike group in the Middle East, and US media say a second group could arrive within two weeks amid reports that US President Donald Trump is considering new military action.

Grossi said the dialogue with Iran since the inspectors' return last year had been "imperfect and complicated and extremely difficult, but it's there".

He said an accord with Iran on returning to the damaged sites was "absolutely possible" but would be "terribly difficult".

"The big question of the moment is how to define these steps for the future. And we know perfectly well what needs to be checked and how to check it."

The US has had contact with Iranians officials in recent weeks. But Iran has refused access to the key nuclear sites that came under attack when Israel launched a 12-day war last June, followed by the US attacks. It insisted in November that visits had to be part of a new accord.

Washington has said it wants to pursue talks with Iranian officials after a first meeting in Oman on February 6.

World

Israel’s Barak Says He Regrets Knowing Epstein After Documents Detail Their Long Friendship

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak speaks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. (The Canadian Press via AP, File)
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak speaks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. (The Canadian Press via AP, File)
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Israel’s Barak Says He Regrets Knowing Epstein After Documents Detail Their Long Friendship

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak speaks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. (The Canadian Press via AP, File)
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak speaks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025. (The Canadian Press via AP, File)

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has apologized for his yearslong friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein that included regular correspondence, multiple visits to the disgraced financier's Manhattan apartment and one to his private island.

The former Israeli leader has not been implicated in Epstein's sexual abuse of underage girls and faces no accusations of wrongdoing. In an exclusive interview with Israel's Channel 12 on Thursday, he said he regretted having ever known Epstein and apologized to all those "who feel deeply uncomfortable.”

“I am responsible for all my actions and decisions, and there is definitely room to ask if there wasn’t room for more in-depth judgment on my part and a more thorough examination of what the details really are, what exactly happened there,” he said.

Barak appears in several documents

Barak is among several political, business and cultural elites found to have maintained long relationships with Epstein, even after his 2008 guilty plea for soliciting prostitution from an underage girl in Florida. Epstein died by suicide in detention in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal allegations of sexually abusing and trafficking dozens of girls.

Barak, who has previously distanced himself from Epstein, gave the latest interview after millions of pages of documents were released by the US Justice Department in connection with its investigations of Epstein.

Barak and his wife, Nili, have turned up frequently in the documents, showing they stayed in regular contact with Epstein for years, including after he cut a deal with prosecutors in 2008 that resulted in an 18-month prison sentence.

Barak has acknowledged visiting Epstein numerous times, flying on his private plane and staying at his New York apartment when he was out of public office. Barak said he and his wife and some security guards paid a three-hour visit to Epstein's home in the US Virgin Islands, but saw only Epstein and some maintenance workers there.

Barak said he never observed or took part in any inappropriate behavior. He said he was aware of the earlier Epstein case but assumed he had paid his debt to society.

“Only in 2019, when a reinvestigation of the whole story begins, does the breadth and depth of the man’s heinous crimes become apparent and I cut off relations with him, and everyone cuts off relations with him,” Barak said.

A Netanyahu rival

Barak served as prime minister from 1999 to 2001, when Israel and the Palestinians held high-level peace talks before the process collapsed and a Palestinian uprising broke out. He later served as defense minister.

His ties to Epstein came to light seven years ago after Barak announced a political comeback in an unsuccessful bid to topple Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

At the time, US tax records showed Barak received some $2 million in grants for unspecified “research” the previous decade from the Wexner Foundation — a philanthropic organization that supports Jewish causes. At the time, Epstein was a trustee of the foundation.

Barak downplayed those ties when they surfaced, saying Epstein “didn't support me or pay me.”

The new batch of released documents show regular correspondence among Barak, his wife and Epstein.

Some detail plans for a 2017 stay at Epstein's New York residence, while others discuss mundane logistics for other visits, meetings and phone calls. In June 2019, Barak's wife, Nili, emailed Epstein saying they delayed their flight to New York by roughly a week. In 2013, Epstein's assistant, Lesley Groff, emailed Epstein about dinner with Barak, his wife and several business people and celebrities, including Woody Allen.

In 2019 — about a week before Epstein was arrested — an exchange about Barak between Epstein and an unknown person shows Epstein saying he was “dealing with Ehud in Israel. Making me crazy.”

The documents show that Epstein connected Barak with US President Donald Trump's former adviser, Steve Bannon, who was seeking to become more involved in Israeli politics. Emails from Epstein to his staff and others in 2018 discussed setting up dinners or meetings between Barak and Bannon.

Bannon has not been implicated in any wrongdoing related to Epstein.

In Thursday's interview, Barak said it's likely more information will emerge from the documents in the weeks ahead, but he maintained that he had done nothing illegal or improper.

“I promise you that nothing will be discovered, because there is nothing,” he said.

World

Merz Eyes European Nuclear Shield in Call for Reset with US

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2026. (Reuters)
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2026. (Reuters)
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Merz Eyes European Nuclear Shield in Call for Reset with US

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2026. (Reuters)
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaks during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2026. (Reuters)

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Friday that Berlin had begun confidential talks with France about a European nuclear deterrent, saying the region had to become stronger in order to reset its relationship with the United States.

In a speech to open the Munich Security Conference, Merz also called on Washington to "repair and revive trust" in a dangerous new era of great power politics, warning the US could not go it alone as the old global order crumbles.

The speech underscored how European leaders are increasingly looking to carve an independent path after a year of unprecedented upheaval in transatlantic ties, while also striving to maintain their alliance with Washington.

Europe faces myriad threats from Russia's war in Ukraine to massive ructions in global trade.

"I have begun confidential talks with the French President on European nuclear deterrence," Merz said. "We Germans are adhering to our legal obligations. We see this as strictly embedded within our nuclear sharing in NATO. And we will not allow zones of ‌differing security to ‌emerge in Europe."

FRANCE IS EU'S ONLY NUCLEAR POWER

French President Emmanuel Macron is due to make ‌a ⁠speech on the nuclear ⁠deterrent later this month. Officials have remained guarded on the issue given it is the president's prerogative.

European nations have long relied heavily on the United States, including its large nuclear arsenal, for their defense but have been increasing military spending, partly in response to sharp criticism from the Trump administration.

While Germany is currently banned from developing a nuclear weapon under international agreements, France is the European Union's only nuclear power following Britain's departure from the bloc and has the world's fourth-largest stockpile.

Taking his cue from those warning that the international rules-based order was about to be destroyed, Merz said: "I fear we must put it even more bluntly: This order, however imperfect it was even at its best, no longer exists in that form."

Switching to English ⁠at the end, Merz said: "In the era of great power rivalry, even the United States will ‌not be powerful enough to go it alone. Dear friends, being a part of ‌NATO is not only Europe’s competitive advantage. It is also the United States' competitive advantage."

"So let’s repair and revive transatlantic trust together," he added.

A YEAR AFTER ‌VANCE BLAST, RUBIO STRIKES WARMER TONE

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had also said transatlantic ties faced a "defining moment" in a ‌rapidly changing world but struck a more conciliatory tone that contrasted with remarks by Vice President JD Vance in 2025.

At the same gathering of top security officials last year, Vance had attacked European allies in a speech that marked the start of a series of confrontations.

"I think it's at a defining moment ... the world is changing very fast right in front of us," Rubio said before departing for Munich.

"(The US is) deeply tied to Europe, and our ‌futures have always been linked and will continue to be," said Rubio, who is a potential rival to Vance for the 2028 US presidential race. "So we've just got to talk about what ⁠that future looks like."

Transatlantic ties ⁠have long been central to the Munich Security Conference, which began as a Cold War forum for Western defense debate. But the unquestioned assumption of cooperation that underpinned it has been upended.

Underscoring the damage, a YouGov poll on Friday of the six largest European countries showed favorability towards the US in Europe hitting its lowest since tracking began in 2016.

The latest figures are broadly comparable to – and in some cases higher than – the perceived threat from China, Iran or North Korea, although behind Russia, YouGov said.

US President Donald Trump has toppled Venezuela’s leader, threatened other Latin American countries with similar military action, imposed tariffs on friends and foes alike and talked openly about annexing Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark - a move that could effectively end the alliance.

Last year's speech by Vance accused European leaders of censoring free speech and failing to control immigration, which Merz explicitly rejected.

"A rift has opened up between Europe and the United States. Vice President JD Vance said this very openly here in Munich a year ago," Merz said.

"He was right. The culture war of the MAGA movement is not ours. Freedom of speech ends here with us when that speech goes against human dignity and the constitution. We do not believe in tariffs and protectionism, but in free trade," he said, drawing applause.