The Caesar Act is designed to punish the Syrian regime, until it “changes its behavior and accepts a peaceful path to a political solution in Syria,” according to officials in the US administration.
But the close links between Lebanon and Syria through dozens of bilateral agreements signed during the era of Syrian tutelage have had the new measures against the Syrian regime directly affect its neighbor, according to experts.
Basically, the Caesar Act seeks to drive Iran out of Syria and close the corridor from Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and Damascus. And since it does not clearly define the entities, institutions, and even individuals who will be subject to its sanctions, discretion may prevail.
Some Lebanese were getting ready to have “a portion of the pie” of the projects that could be implemented in Syria. But the collapse of the exchange rate of the Syrian and Lebanese pounds exposed the reality of the structural problem faced by the two countries.
While there are no signs of imminent progress in the discussions between Beirut and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which asked the Lebanese state to prioritize three files, including the electricity, the fight against corruption, and the closure of illegal crossings, the country could face increased losses as a result of the implementation of the Caesar Act.
Paul Salem, the president of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said that a large part of the recent collapse in the financial, monetary, and economic situation in Lebanon and Syria was due to fears of the implementation of the new US bill.
“There is no doubt that the two economies are intertwined and the bill further complicates the situation… Unfortunately, the two regimes may not be affected, and fear is for the Lebanese and Syrian people, as the social cost in both countries will be high, and we see signs of this in prices of food and medicine,” Salem told Asharq Al-Awsat.
He noted, however, that despite the stance against Iran and Hezbollah, the US Administration still declares its support for Lebanon as long as it undertakes economic and political reform and faces corruption.
“Washington has not yet abandoned Lebanon, but the problem lies in the economic and financial collapse, the main reasons for which are the mismanagement of the Lebanese, and not only because of our association with Syria. The US or even France will not roam the world to prevent the fall of Lebanon, and there is no safety card to prevent it from collapsing,” he underlined.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Tony Badran, a senior researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, said that financial and commodity smuggling to Syria became a structural issue that turned Lebanon into a center to avoid sanctions against the Assad regime.
“When Lebanese merchants import goods from abroad, they must obtain approvals, and all the ministries, especially the Ministry of Energy and banks, know that the import requests are much greater than Lebanon’s need and that they have been earmarked for Syria,” he explained.
“All of this will stop with the Caesar Act and violators will be subject to sanctions,” he remarked, adding: “What is certain is that avoiding the repercussions of the bill depends on Lebanon’s response to the conditions of the international community in implementing reforms.”
