OPEC Points to 2020 Oil Surplus even as Demand Gradually Recovers

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
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OPEC Points to 2020 Oil Surplus even as Demand Gradually Recovers

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

The world faces an oil surplus in 2020 even as demand gradually recovers and record supply cuts by producers help rebalance the market, according to OPEC forecasts on Wednesday.

The latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries potentially increases pressure on the group and its allies, known as OPEC+, to curb more supply.

OPEC said demand would decline by 6.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2020, less than the drop of 11.9 million bpd in the first six months of the year, with a "gradual recovery" seen until the end of the year.

Oil prices have collapsed as lockdowns to limit the spread of the coronavirus have curtailed travel and economic activity. While some places in Europe and Asia have eased restrictions, concern over new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices.

To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC+ - which includes Russia - agreed to a record supply cut that started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said they would pump less.

OPEC said these curbs were already helping.

"The oil market was strongly supported by a reduction of the global crude oil surplus, thanks mainly to the historic voluntary production adjustment agreement," Reuters quoted it as saying.

Despite the cuts made already, OPEC still pointed to a surplus in the market this year, in part because it now expects supply from outside the group to be about 300,000 bpd higher than previously thought.

A technical committee of OPEC+ and a ministerial panel met Wednesday and are expected to hold talks Thursday to review the supply cut's impact and seek better compliance from those yet to deliver their share in full, such as Iraq and Nigeria.

Brent crude was trading above $40 a barrel after the report's release and is up from a 21-year low below $16 reached in April.

In the report, OPEC did not further reduce its forecast for world oil demand in 2020, after steep cuts in earlier months. Still, downside risks remain for consumption in top consumer the United States, according to the group.

The supply pact agreed in April involves OPEC+ cutting output by 9.7 million bpd in May and June. OPEC+ agreed on June 6 to extend the cut for another month, a decision OPEC said the market had taken well.

In its report, OPEC said it had cut supply in May by 6.3 million bpd to 24.2 million bpd. That amounts to 84% compliance with the pledges, according to a Reuters calculation – higher than some estimates.

Overall OPEC+ compliance stood at 87% in May, a source said on Wednesday.

OPEC estimated the demand for its crude this year at 23.6 million bpd, down 700,000 bpd from last month, suggesting it needs to cut about 600,000 bpd from May's rate to avoid a surplus.



Saudi Ministers Highlight Resilience, Adaptability of the Kingdom’s Economy at Budget Forum

Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Ministers Highlight Resilience, Adaptability of the Kingdom’s Economy at Budget Forum

Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Finance Minister Mohamed Al-Jadaan speaks in the first dialogue session of the 2025 Budget Forum. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi ministers reaffirmed the continued success of Vision 2030 and the economy’s ability to overcome challenges while achieving diversification.

Speaking at the 2025 Budget Forum, organized by the Ministry of Finance, they underscored the importance of fiscal policies in driving sustainable economic growth and emphasized the integration of various sectors to enhance Saudi Arabia’s global standing.

The forum followed the Cabinet’s approval of the 2025 budget, which projects revenues of SAR 1.184 trillion ($315.7 billion), expenditures of SAR 1.285 trillion ($342.6 billion), and a deficit of SAR 101 billion ($26.9 billion).

Sustainable Spending and Economic Diversification

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan highlighted that sustainable spending has enabled Saudi Arabia to provide high-quality services. He emphasized that fiscal policies focus on sectors with a direct impact on economic development and diversification.

Al-Jadaan noted that ensuring fiscal sustainability is crucial to reducing reliance on oil revenues.

“Structural reforms under Vision 2030 have transformed the economy,” he said, adding that non-oil revenues have reached SAR 472 billion due to the significant progress in diversification efforts.

He further explained: “Previously, Saudi Arabia’s growth depended heavily on oil revenues. Today, through diversified economic resources and sustainable fiscal policies, our economy is more resilient.”

He also stressed the role of government borrowing in balancing revenues and expenditures, benefiting both public and private sectors.

Progress Toward Economic Diversification

Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim highlighted that one of Vision 2030’s key objectives is to unlock the potential of citizens while reducing reliance on oil. He noted that in its eighth year, the vision continues to advance steadily and with strong momentum, addressing previous challenges such as dependence on government spending and oil revenues.

“Non-oil activities have grown by 6% over the last three years,” Al-Ibrahim said, “now contributing 52% of real GDP.” He added that non-oil sector growth is projected to reach 3.9% by year-end and 4.8% in 2024.

Al-Ibrahim stressed the importance of sustainable, high-quality growth driven by private sector dynamism and productivity. He also highlighted Saudi Arabia’s increasing global competitiveness in sectors like healthcare, citing breakthroughs such as robotic heart surgeries.

Additionally, he noted the Kingdom’s demographic advantage, stating: “We have a young population, and now is the time to invest in their capabilities, as envisioned under Vision 2030.”

Employment and Reducing Unemployment

Minister of Human Resources and Social Development Ahmed Al-Rajhi announced a new unemployment target of 5% for Saudis by 2030. This follows the Kingdom’s early achievement of its previous unemployment target of 7%, reached seven years ahead of schedule.

Industrial Growth and Export Expansion

For his part, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef reported significant progress in the industrial sector, with 1,100 new industrial licenses expected in 2024 and 900 factories entering production.

Non-oil exports grew by 15% in 2024, rising from SAR 458 billion ($121.9 billion) to SAR 528 billion ($140.5 billion). Al-Khorayef highlighted that the Saudi Industrial Development Fund financed projects worth SAR 12 billion ($3.2 billion) this year, contributing to total investments exceeding SAR 60 billion ($16 billion).

“The industrial sector is now a central part of government agendas,” he said, adding that export growth was driven by new product development.

Digital Transformation and a Cashless Economy

Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Al-Swaha outlined Saudi Arabia’s strategy to become a technology exporter, which is a key part of its digital economy goals. He highlighted that over 70% of transactions in the Kingdom are now cashless, supported by the emergence of more than 200 fintech companies.

Al-Swaha emphasized that the next phase will focus on exporting technology and establishing Saudi Arabia as a global leader in the tech sector.

Transportation Growth

Minister of Transport and Logistics Services Saleh Al-Jasser reported that the sector created 122,000 jobs in Q3 2024, with women comprising 29% of the workforce.

He also noted that the transport sector aims to achieve 60% local content in its spending by 2030. The current figure stands at 50%, up from 39% in the baseline year.

Education, Tourism, and Sports

Minister of Education Yousef Al-Benyan highlighted the establishment of the National Center for Curriculum Development as a major achievement in 2023. He also noted that education spending in the 2025 budget exceeds SAR 200 billion.

Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khatib reported that the tourism sector now contributes 5% to GDP, up from previous years, with a goal of reaching 10% by 2030. He added that Saudi Arabia surpassed its Vision 2030 target of 100 million visitors, reaching 109 million tourists in 2023.

In the sports sector, Prince Abdulaziz bin Turki Al-Faisal, Minister of Sports, revealed that 25 local and international companies have shown interest in investing in privatized sports clubs, with projected revenues of SAR 500 million ($133 million).