Lebanon is standing at a crossroads where it is expected to choose its fate after reaching the point of no return on all levels: political, after the vast majority of the people lost faith in the ruling class that has been in power for 30 years; economic, after the collapse of the national currency; and security, after the cataclysmic Beirut port explosion and the state’s clear inability in controlling both its legal and illegal border crossings.
Lebanon, or rather the Lebanese state, managed to overcome the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) verdict hurdle. The court is looking into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. There were fears that this week’s verdict would lead to negative reactions in the streets after a Hezbollah member was convicted of the crime. However, the verdict was released without incident in Lebanon. It remains doubtful that local authorities will ever arrest the convict, Salim Ayyash, amid Hezbollah’s declaration that it is not concerned with the STL and therefore, is not concerned with its verdict. Ayyash alone was convicted of the crime, while the STL acquitted three other Hezbollah members – Hassan Merhi, Assad Sabra and Hassan Oneissi – due to a lack of evidence.
2 loopholes in the verdict
Lebanese international law and constitutional expert, Dr. Shafik al-Masri spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat about “two main loopholes in the STL verdict.” The first, he said, was the failure to announce the responsibilities senior Hezbollah operative, Mustafa Badreddine, played in the assassination. Badreddine was assassinated in Syria in 2016.
The second loophole, he added, is the acquittal of the three suspects even though the verdict noted their role in the telecommunications data. Therefore, their very participation in the operation, even if they did not know who the target was, makes them responsible, said Masri.
Moreover, he stressed the need to read the entire verdict, not just its final ruling. He stressed that the verdict clearly states that Hariri’s assassination was politically motivated and linked to Syria. The verdict said the decision to kill the former PM was taken after two developments: the Bristol 3 meeting that called for Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and Hariri’s meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem during which complaints were voiced over Syria’s position in Lebanon.
Masri said people criticized the STL for failing to clearly announce who ordered the assassination, however, international tribunals do not have the jurisdiction to issue verdicts against organizations or states. The clear mentioning of Syria in the verdict is tantamount to condemnation against it, he explained.
On Ayyash’s potential arrest, Masri said that this is up to the new Lebanese government that is yet to be formed. The government will have to demonstrate its seriousness before the local and international public that it will carry out its duty in this regard. The STL may refer the issue to Interpol after Ayyash’s sentence is announce. Interpol could then track him down and arrest him, he explained, citing previous examples.
Port blast and escaping blame
If Lebanon is likely to overcome the repercussions of the STL verdict, then it will no doubt be unable to shake off the aftermath of the August 4 Beirut port blast, which has to date claimed the lives of at least 180 people, injured thousands and left 300,000 homeless. Investigations are ongoing in the explosion, but they are almost exclusively limited to security and administrative officials at the port.
Several political powers have expressed their lack of faith in any local probe, demanding an international investigation. This demand will probably stumble at President Michel Aoun, and his ally Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who have rejected it.
As of this week, Judge Fadi Sawwan has issued numerous arrest warrants in the investigation, with Beirut Port General Manager Hassan Koraytem and Director General of Lebanese Customs Badri Daher among the most prominent officials included. Sawwan is still focusing his investigation on the negligence that allowed 2,750 tons of highly-explosive ammonium nitrate to remain at the port for seven years. As for the cause of the blast, the judge is awaiting reports from explosive experts, significantly from French and FBI experts, who are helping the Lebanese team.
At any rate, many in Lebanon fear that blame for the blast will be limited to port authorities, not the judges or ministers who knew of the dangerous stockpile of ammonium nitrate at the hangar 12. Retired general Dr. Mohammed Rammal told Asharq Al-Awsat that several different security agencies oversee security at the port. Even civil authorities are involved. However, uncovered correspondence revealed that security, civil and judicial authorities all knew about the stockpile. This demands that a number of judges be probed. Rammal explained that security forces do not have the authority to move products at the port, but rather they need authorization that is granted by the concerned judiciary.
It appears the political powers will not be able to shirk their responsibilities from the blast given the massive pressure they are under from the people. Furthermore, Rammal said that the arrest of the chief of Lebanese Customs will inevitably lead to an immediate probe of the finance minister, seeing as the customs authority is directly answerable to his ministry.
New government after US elections?
The investigations into the port blast are taking place in the absence of a capable government. Prime Minister Hassan Diab quit after the explosion and is now heading a caretaker cabinet. The absence of a government does not seem to concern the political powers, who are embroiled in their usual bickering, ignoring international pressure that is demanding the formation of a neutral cabinet that is committed to much-needed political and economic reform.
At the moment, the March 8 camp, led by the “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal movement, and their ally Aoun, refuses the formation of an independent government. It is insisting on a political national unity government, which is rejected by the opposition, especially the Mustaqbal Movement, headed by former PM Saad Hariri, who is the strongest contender to lead the new cabinet. These disputes mean that the government will not be formed any time soon, said Dr. Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.
He predicted that the Diab government will continue to operate in a caretaker capacity until “at least” the American presidential elections in November. He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The government formation process is now in the Iranian-American court.” He explained that Washington is waiting on Tehran to come to the negotiations table in order to discuss pending issues between them, including Lebanon. Iran, however, will not approach it before the elections, significantly since recent polls show that President Donald Trump’s chances of reelection are slim.
Nader dismissed reports of a French-Iranian initiative that would lead to the formation of a new government. He stressed that the Americans are the ones holding the Lebanese “card”, while the French are simply playing the role of facilitator or mediator.
Lebanon can only see its way out of the crisis through a government that does not include the current political class. Only then will it be able to address the catastrophe caused by the Beirut blast and exert serious efforts in putting an end to the economic freefall. Resolving the economic crisis cannot take place without international help and the success of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. “A national unity government or the government of deception – meaning technocrat that the political elite will be controlling behind the scenes – are doomed to fail and rejected by the international community,” Nader said.
