Amr Moussa: Gaddafi Believed He Would Survive Arab Spring Uprisings, Predicted Mubarak’s Fall

Former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi at the Sirte Summit in 2010
Former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi at the Sirte Summit in 2010
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Amr Moussa: Gaddafi Believed He Would Survive Arab Spring Uprisings, Predicted Mubarak’s Fall

Former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi at the Sirte Summit in 2010
Former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi at the Sirte Summit in 2010

The sixth episode in the series of excerpts obtained from the upcoming biography of former Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa – to be published by Dar El-Shorouk and edited and documented by Khaled Abu Bakr – recounts how the events of the Libyan revolution unfolded in February 2011. Over the span of 50 pages, Moussa talks about how the Libyan uprising had pulled the rug from under Muammar Gaddafi’s feet and focuses on the Arab decision to protect Libyans from the Libyan leader’s wrath and violence.

The veteran Egyptian diplomat tells the story of how Gaddafi, after the ouster of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, predicted that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak would be next to fall. Even though Gaddafi got it right on Mubarak’s removal, he was mistaken about his future and his ability to survive the revolution rising against him. Following Libyan regime strikes against the cities of Benghazi and Tobruk, the Arab League suspended the participation of Libya’s permanent representatives in meetings and slapped an air travel ban on the North African country.

Moussa, in “The Years of the Arab League”, explains that the move was taken to protect civilians from regime airstrikes.

As of mid-December 2010, fast-tracked developments and uprisings started to take the Arab world by storm. Overnight, Tunisia’s Ben Ali was exiled to Saudi Arabia. This was in the aftermath of the streets and squares of Tunisia being flooded with angry youth demanding political openness and social justice. A few days later, the January 25 revolution in Egypt forced Mubarak to step down in February 2011.

Nestled between Tunisia and Egypt, Libya was next in line to be swept by protests and demands for a system overhaul. Gaddafi, who had predicted Mubarak’s downfall, lacked the perception and depth needed to recognize that his rule too was going to be brought to an end. The Libyan leader, who had ruled for over four decades, believed that he had what it took to survive the revolutions.

A swift peek of the map would have sufficed to realize that Libya was wedged between two major rebellions, one in Tunisia and the other in Egypt. As of February 15, 2011, all eyes turned to Libya, where demonstrations against Gaddafi's rule broke out for the first time in Benghazi and quickly spread to other cities, including the capital, Tripoli. Moussa recounts that his heart skipped a beat over the developments in Libya.

“You can imagine the reaction of any Arab regime to demonstrations calling for it to leave, but not the Gaddafi regime,” he explains.

Noting that heightened tensions weighed down Gaddafi’s relations with various Western countries, Moussa added that he was apprehensive about the regime’s reaction to events in Libya. As protests grew more ferocious, so did Gaddafi’s repression of the people.

On February 22, 2011, Gaddafi gave a divisive speech in which he claimed to be a “revolutionary leader forever” and a Bedouin warrior who brought glory to all Libyans. He said that he wasn’t a president for him to resign and that Libya’s image before the world was being marred because of the recent events. Gaddafi also hinted at resorting to force when needed. The speech provoked strong global reactions. International bodies and major countries, one after the other, came out in condemnation of both it and the violence used by the Libyan authorities to suppress demonstrations.

The Arab League’s Response

Following Gaddafi’s speech, reports of increased human losses and regime forces attacking demonstrators in Benghazi and Tobruk flooded the media. Faced with rapid developments, Moussa says he summoned permanent representatives at the Arab League to convene an emergency meeting on the evening of February 22, the day Gaddafi spoke. He recalls that the meeting was held at the level of permanent representatives and not ministers because of the time it would take for the latter to arrive in Cairo.

Developments were happening at an accelerated rate, and the situation did not allow for the time needed for Arab League ministers to assemble at the organization’s headquarters. “We must not be late in our reaction.

Incoming reports are predicting the fall of many more victims both from Libyans and Arabs residing in Libya, especially Egyptians and Tunisians, who are at risk after Saif al-Islam Gaddafi (Gaddafi’s son) accused them of supporting the demonstrators against his father’s rule,” Moussa said in his opening remarks at the meeting. He went on to tell attendees that the Arab League must send out a call urging for reason to prevail. Moussa concluded the meeting by issuing a multipoint resolution which condemned crimes committed against peaceful protesters in Libyan cities, including Tripoli, and suspended Libya’s participation at meetings held by the Arab League or its affiliated agencies until Libyan authorities answer to the demands of the people in a way that guarantees their security and stability. This was the first time in the history of the Arab League that the organization bars the delegations of a member state from participating in meetings over “negative internal conditions”.

“I thought that this represented an important development in the Arab multilateral organization, and it was also an important message, if Col. Gaddafi accepted it, so the Arab League, and I personally, could rely on it in a political movement that might contribute to preventing the deterioration of the situation in Libya,” Moussa recounts.

Foreign Ministers of Arab League member states then convened their 135th session on March 2, 2011. The dangerous developments in Libya were the center of the meeting. The ministers backed previously approved decisions by permanent representatives and added a new clause on promoting deliberations for finding effective ways to ensure the safety and security of Libyans. They confirmed that Arab states can’t stand idle while the brotherly people of Libya suffer bloodshed and agreed to impose an air ban. Each of the Arab League and the African Union cooperated to implement the ban.

Calling For an Air Ban

The Arab League marking Libya as a no-fly zone to protect civilians stirred widespread controversy. In his memoir, Moussa recalls that the first call for imposing an air ban on Libya was made at the 118th session held by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers on March 10, 2011.

In a statement issued after their meeting in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh, GCC foreign ministers called on the Arab League to take measures to stop the bloodshed in Libya and to initiate contacts with the National Council formed by the opposition. They denounced the crimes committed against civilians and called on the Arab League to shoulder responsibility to take the necessary measures to defuse rifts, achieve the aspirations of the Libyan people, and take the necessary measures to do that, including calling on the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Libya to protect civilians.

The GCC continued its pressure campaign to endorse a no-fly zone on Libya. On March 12, 2011, an emergency ministerial meeting was held at the Arab League. In his biography, Moussa sheds a special light on the meeting, saying that it was important for readers to know what happened. First, Moussa explains that the extraordinary meeting was split into three sessions.

The first session, held at 2:30 pm, was open to the public and was short to a 15 min speech delivered by Omani Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi, who chaired the meeting.

A closed-door session followed at exactly 2:45 pm. Moussa was the first to speak. His speech was followed by statements delivered by Arab League foreign ministers and representatives from Qatar, Algeria, the UAE, Syria, Lebanon, Morocco, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Egypt.

Towards the ending of the meeting, Moussa remembers emphasizing to attendees that the proposed no-fly zone on Libya was not indefinite. He also spoke of four core principles the Arab League was endorsing.

Those principles were:

1. Calling for a clear legal framework for any decision to establish a no-fly zone in Libya to protect civilians, that is, the necessity for there to be a Security Council resolution that clearly reflects the will of the international community-- Because the air embargo is not a combat measure, but rather a preventive measure to prevent more blood from being spilled.

2. The decision to establish an air ban shall not affect civil aviation traffic; Because there are many countries, such as Egypt, that are taking the necessary measures to evacuate their nationals from Libya.

3. Ensuring respect for principles of state sovereignty and maintaining non-interference in internal affairs of other countries. Any decision issued by the UN Security Council regarding the air embargo in Libya should not affect the sovereignty of any country other than Libya, whether from neighboring countries or elsewhere.

4. Preserving Libya's territorial integrity. Establishing any no-fly zone must not effectively divide Libya. The purposes of establishing a no-fly zone, its geographical scope, its working conditions, and its duration must be clearly defined.

In special agreement with Dar El Shorouk - all rights reserved.



Five Things to Know about the US-Iran Talks in Islamabad

A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan
A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan
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Five Things to Know about the US-Iran Talks in Islamabad

A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan
A man rides a motorcycle past the President house as Pakistan gears up to host the US and Iran for peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Waseem Khan

The United States and Iran are holding their highest-level talks in years in Islamabad in a Pakistan-brokered bid to turn a fragile two-week ceasefire into a lasting end to a war that has roiled global energy markets.

Here are five things to know about the Islamabad talks:

- The war behind the talks -

On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and struck Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure, killing more than 2,000 people in five weeks.

Tehran responded by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and gas passes, sending energy prices soaring and disrupting trade worldwide.

On April 8, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Iran's Supreme National Security Council said the talks could continue for up to 15 days. The ceasefire is expected to expire April 22.

- Pakistan's unlikely starring role -

Pakistan is hosting the first negotiations between Washington and Tehran since the war began, a stunning pivot for a country long viewed through the lens of deep security concerns.

The country does not typically host talks of this scale.

Pakistan's value as mediator rests on an unusually broad diplomatic network.

Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan following independence in 1947, with the two neighbors sharing a 900-kilometer (560-mile) border and deep historical, cultural and religious ties. Pakistan is also home to over 20 million Shia Muslims: the second-largest such population in the world after Iran.

At the same time, Islamabad has cultivated strong ties with Washington, Riyadh and Beijing.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing at the end of March for talks with Wang Yi, who backed Islamabad's mediation efforts as "in keeping with the common interests of all parties".

Trump himself told AFP that China helped bring Iran to the negotiating table, an account backed by Pakistani officials.

"On ceasefire night, hopes were fading, but China stepped in and convinced Iran to agree to a preliminary ceasefire," a senior Pakistani official familiar with the negotiations told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"While our efforts were central, we were falling short of a breakthrough, which was ultimately achieved after Beijing persuaded the Iranians."

- What's on the table? -

The gap between the two sides remains vast.

Washington's reported 15-point proposal centers on Iran's enriched uranium, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has countered with a 10-point plan demanding control over the strait, a toll for vessels crossing the strait, an end to all regional military operations and the lifting of all sanctions.

Lebanon is also a major sticking point. Israel continued its strikes in the country targeting Hezbollah -- after the ceasefire came into force -- with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejecting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's assertion that the truce included Lebanon.

US Vice President JD Vance appeared to take a softer tone, saying there may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on X that Israel's strikes on Lebanon rendered the negotiations "meaningless". "Our hands remain on the trigger. Iran will never forsake its Lebanese brothers and sisters.

- Who are the negotiators? -

Vance will lead the American team, joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner.

It marks the most senior US engagement with Iran since Secretary of State John Kerry negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal. Witkoff held multiple rounds of Oman-mediated talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi before the war cut the process short.

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi are expected to lead the Iranian delegation.

Ghalibaf is a former IRGC commander, and it remains unclear whether any active IRGC representative will attend.

- Islamabad on lockdown -

The talks are being held in the Pakistani capital Islamabad.

The government has kept its cards close to its chest, without confirming the venue. Pakistan's leader Sharif had said the talks would take place on Friday, while the White House said the first round would begin on Saturday.

The Serena Hotel, located next to the foreign ministry in the capital's high-security Red Zone, asked its guests to clear out on Wednesday, and that same day authorities in the capital announced a two-day public holiday on Thursday and Friday.

The talks themselves are expected to be indirect: the two delegations sitting in separate rooms with Pakistani officials shuttling proposals between them, mirroring the format used in earlier Oman-mediated rounds.

Outside, the streets of Islamabad are flooded with armed security personnel in military fatigues, traffic diversions and police checkpoints. The capital, already a quiet city, was even quieter on Friday.


Gaza Marks 6 Months of a Ceasefire That May Offer Lessons for the Iran War

 Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
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Gaza Marks 6 Months of a Ceasefire That May Offer Lessons for the Iran War

 Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)
Palestinian youths look on as they stand in an area next to tents at a makeshift camp for displaced people, at sunset in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Thursday, April 9, 2026. (AP)

Friday marks six months since Gaza's ceasefire deal took effect, a milestone largely lost in the confusion over the new and even more fragile ceasefire in the Iran war.

The ravaged Palestinian territory of 2 million people has seen the most intense fighting stop between Israeli forces and Hamas-led fighters. But most of the ceasefire work remains to be done, from disarming Hamas and ending its two-decade rule to deploying an international stabilization force and beginning vast reconstruction. Gaza residents are in limbo, with limited aid entering through a single, Israeli-controlled border post.

Such challenges could represent what’s to come in the latest war, as US President Donald Trump’s approach to peacemaking appears to be stopping bombardment and leaving the bigger picture for others to work out.

Whether Trump can force through that kind of deal on Iran, with more actors in play and global markets quivering at every statement, is yet to be seen.

The Board of Peace goes quiet

Focusing on a deal's details is crucial. Already the Iran war's two-week ceasefire has created deadly confusion over Lebanon as Israel insists the deal doesn’t apply there and continues to attack the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, while Iran insists it does and threatens to upend the agreement. Israel made a surprise announcement Thursday authorizing direct negotiations with Lebanon, despite the lack of diplomatic ties.

Not long ago, the US-created and Trump-led Board of Peace kicked off with $7 billion in pledges and sweeping intentions of resolving not only Gaza but other conflicts that emerge around the world.

Nine days after the board's initial meeting, the US and Israel attacked Iran.

The Board of Peace has not met again, and it's still waiting for Hamas to respond to its proposal on disarming, a major concession and perhaps the hardest step. Hamas’ founding charter calls for armed resistance against Israel.

A US official said Hamas has not been given a definite deadline to respond to the proposal but added that "patience is not unlimited." The official was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The lack of a deadline can weaken pressure to act. Meanwhile, diplomacy is busy putting out different flames.

Board of Peace director Nickolay Mladenov told the UN Security Council last month that the world should not lose sight of Gaza as a new war flared. The choice in Gaza is between "a renewed war, or a new beginning; the status quo, or a better future," he added. "There is no third option."

‘It’s as if there’s no ceasefire at all’

Palestinians might suggest a third option: neglect.

Six months into the Gaza ceasefire that took effect on Oct. 10, little beyond the largely silenced explosions has changed.

Vast tent camps house most of the territory’s population. Other residents shelter in damaged apartment buildings. Health workers and other humanitarian workers say there has been little progress in the expected surge of medical supplies and other aid.

The US 20-point ceasefire plan for Gaza is largely failing on the humanitarian front, five international aid groups said in a scorecard released Thursday. They said conditions have deteriorated further in Gaza since the Iran war began.

"During the first two weeks of March 2026, trucks entering Gaza declined by 80%, and the price of basic goods increased dramatically," they said. Medical evacuations have stalled.

Palestinians expressed fading hopes for any immediate improvement in their lives.

"There is pollution and disease. It’s as if there’s no ceasefire at all," said Maysa Abu Jedian, a displaced woman from Beit Lahiya.

"The war is still ongoing and life is still terrible as it is," said Eyad Abu Dagga, also sheltering in a camp in Khan Younis.

Tents rippled in the breeze, and children played on the sand against a backdrop of shattered buildings.

While the heaviest fighting has subsided, Israeli forces have carried out airstrikes and fired on Palestinians near military-held zones. Militants have carried out shooting attacks on troops, and Israel has said its strikes are in response to that and other ceasefire violations.

As of Thursday, Israeli attacks have killed 738 people in the six months since the ceasefire, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry, part of the Hamas-led government, maintains detailed casualty records that are seen as generally reliable by UN agencies and independent experts. It does not give a breakdown of civilians and militants.

Overall, the ministry says 72,317 Palestinians had been killed since the war in Gaza began with the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel.

‘Sustained diplomatic pressure at the highest levels’

Unwavering focus on Gaza, once at the heart of a passionate international outcry, has been lost with the rise of a new regional war. That, too, has decreased pressure for progress on the ceasefire.

The humanitarian groups' scorecard notes that any forward movement on aid issues in the Palestinian territory has "generally required sustained diplomatic pressure at the highest levels, particularly from the United States. That pressure, however, has not been applied consistently or at the scale needed to secure full implementation."

The Trump administration is not the only player to be distracted. The entire Middle East, including key Gaza mediators Egypt and Qatar, now focuses on Iran and that war’s effects on their economies.

With the added uncertainty over Israel’s renewed war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, there could be even less interest from countries to contribute troops to a Gaza stabilization force. One of the few confirmed troop contributors, Indonesia, already has seen three of its peacekeepers in southern Lebanon killed in recent days.


Pro-Iran Groups Have Used AI to Try to Control the War Narrative

An AI-generated animation created by a pro-Iran studio and depicting ​​​an Iranian man grilling four US aircraft like a kebab over a campfire is seen on a computer screen in Brussels, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP)
An AI-generated animation created by a pro-Iran studio and depicting ​​​an Iranian man grilling four US aircraft like a kebab over a campfire is seen on a computer screen in Brussels, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP)
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Pro-Iran Groups Have Used AI to Try to Control the War Narrative

An AI-generated animation created by a pro-Iran studio and depicting ​​​an Iranian man grilling four US aircraft like a kebab over a campfire is seen on a computer screen in Brussels, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP)
An AI-generated animation created by a pro-Iran studio and depicting ​​​an Iranian man grilling four US aircraft like a kebab over a campfire is seen on a computer screen in Brussels, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP)

Pro-Iran groups have used artificial intelligence to create slick internet memes in English to try to shape the narrative during the war against the US and Israel and foster opposition to it.

Analysts say the memes appear to be coming from groups linked to the government in Tehran and are part of a strategy of leveraging its limited resources to inflict damage on the US, even indirectly. That includes how Iran has used attacks and threats to control the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and maintain a stranglehold on the world’s economy. A ceasefire raised hopes Wednesday of halting hostilities, but many issues remained unresolved.

“This is a propaganda war for them,” Neil Lavie-Driver, an AI researcher at the University of Cambridge, said, referring to Iran. “Their goal is to sow enough discontent with the conflict as to eventually force the West to cave in, so it is massively important to them.”

It's not the first time memes have been used in a conflict, and they have evolved to include AI images in recent years. AI imagery bombarded Ukrainians after the Russian invasion in 2022. Last year, the term “AI slop” became widely used to describe the glut of imperfect images posted online during the Israel-Iran war to try to destroy the country’s nuclear program.

In the conflict that began Feb. 28 with joint US-Israel strikes, the memes have used well-honed cartoons that lambast US officials.

Steeped in American culture

The memes are fluent not just in English but in American culture and trolling. Published on various social platforms, they are racking up millions of views — though it’s not clear how much influence they have had.

They have portrayed US President Donald Trump as old, out of step and internationally isolated. They have referenced bruising on the back of Trump's right hand that prompted speculation about his health; infighting in Trump's MAGA base; and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s fiery confirmation hearing, among other things.

“They’re using popular culture against the No. 1 pop culture country, the United States,” said Nancy Snow, a scholar who has written more than a dozen books on propaganda.

The pro-Iran images circulating online include a series that uses the style of the “Lego” animated movies. In one, an Iranian military commander raps, “You thought you ran the globe, sitting on your throne. Now we turning every base into a bed of stone,” as Trump falls into a bullseye built of “Epstein files,” the US government’s investigative records on disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Government cooperation

The animations show levels of sophistication and internet access that indicate ties to government offices, said Mahsa Alimardani, a director of WITNESS, a human-rights group working on AI video evidence.

“If you’re able to have the bandwidth needed to generate content like that and upload it, you are officially or unofficially cooperating with the regime,” she said — pointing to severe restrictions Iran has imposed on the internet as part of a crackdown on nationwide protests earlier this year.

State media has reposted some of the memes, including some from the account behind the “Lego”-style videos, Akhbar Enfejari, which means Explosive News.

Akhbar Enfejari described itself as an independent group of Iranians with no connection to the government. “We don’t even receive any funding. We’re just a group of friends working voluntarily — paying for our own internet, using our own laptops and computers, and doing all of this ourselves,” the group told The Associated Press on the messaging app Telegram.

The group said it is producing and upload from within Iran to try to disrupt decades-long dominance of Western control of the airwaves.

“They’ve long dominated the media landscape and, through that power, imposed narratives on many nations,” Akhbar Enfejarsaid. “But this time, something feels different. This time, we’ve disrupted the game. This time, we’re doing it better.”

In addition to the memes coming from pro-Iran groups, Iranian government accounts have trolled the US, including in a post Wednesday from Iran's Embassy in South Africa that said, “Say hello to the new world superpower,” with a picture of the Iranian flag. Both the US and Iran declared victory after agreeing to a ceasefire.

Analysts say the deep grasp of US politics and culture is the fruit of more old-school methods of propaganda: a decades-long Iranian government program to promote narratives against the US and Israel.

“This meme war comes from institutions that are very aware what the American public is aware of and pop cultural references that can appeal to them,” Alimardani said.

Messaging from the US and Israel

Analysts say the US and Israel do not appear to be engaging in the same kind of campaign — and given the restrictions Iran has put on internet access in the country, getting such messages to ordinary Iranians would be difficult.

Early in the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video that used AI to make it seem like he was speaking in Farsi, in which he urged Iranians to overthrow their government. The White House has published a steady stream of memes, but those are aimed at a US audience and feature clips from American TV shows and sports.

The US government-run Voice of America, which for decades beamed news reports to many countries that had no tradition of a free press, does still broadcast in Farsi, though it is has been operating with a skeleton staff since Trump ordered it shut down.

“This world order is really changing overnight and the US is not going to end up necessarily as the state that everybody listens to,” Snow said.