ISIS and Al-Qaeda Wage ‘Small’ Wars on Margins of Civil Strife

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces fighters stand guard next to men waiting to be screened after being evacuated out of the last territory held by ISIS, near Baghouz, eastern Syria, Feb. 22, 2019. (AP)
US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces fighters stand guard next to men waiting to be screened after being evacuated out of the last territory held by ISIS, near Baghouz, eastern Syria, Feb. 22, 2019. (AP)
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ISIS and Al-Qaeda Wage ‘Small’ Wars on Margins of Civil Strife

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces fighters stand guard next to men waiting to be screened after being evacuated out of the last territory held by ISIS, near Baghouz, eastern Syria, Feb. 22, 2019. (AP)
US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces fighters stand guard next to men waiting to be screened after being evacuated out of the last territory held by ISIS, near Baghouz, eastern Syria, Feb. 22, 2019. (AP)

Civil wars and strife often witness smaller wars and conflict between parties fighting in the same camp. This took place, for example, between Christian parties during the 1975-90 Lebanese civil when the Kataeb and National Liberal Party waged bloody battles for dominance. They culminated in the defeat of the Tigers Militia – the armed wing of the NLP – and establishment of the Lebanese Forces.

In Afghanistan, Mujahideen factions fought against the communist rule in Kabul and its Russian supporters. No sooner had the Mujahideen claimed victory that they turned against each other in 1992, turning Kabul into rubble. Their war only ended with the rise of the Taliban, which swallowed or nearly swallowed them up whole.

In Algeria, the 1990s saw the emergence of dozens of armed groups that fought against the rulers in order to oust and replace them with an “Islamic government.” They were battling the Algerian army, while the factions were also fighting each other in order to “unite their banner.” The infighting helped the Algerian security forces to turn the tide in their favor and defeat all of the armed groups.

The above introduction leads to the question: What sort of relationship is in store in the future between the rival ISIS and al-Qaeda organizations?

Both organizations follow the same ideology even though ISIS was formed years after al-Qaeda.

ISIS is the product of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, was born in the late 1980s in Afghanistan during a time of resistance against the Red Army and communists. In the 1990s, the Egyptian al-Jihad organization merged with al-Qaeda, leading to the establishment of the so-called Qaidat al-Jihad group, which was predominantly comprised of Egyptian members.

The rift between ISIS and al-Qaeda happened after the eruption of the Syrian civil conflict in 2011. At the time, al-Qaeda in Iraq was known as the Islamic State in Iraq. The rift was the culmination of clashes between al-Qaeda’s Iraqi branch, led by Jordan’s Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and several Sunni factions that were fighting the American “occupiers”. These factions refused the dictates of Zarqawi, who wanted to impose the authority of his organization over all Iraqi factions.

Zarqawi’s actions prompted several Sunni groups to work with the Americans and Iraqi government instead of joining an organization that was leading the country towards sectarian civil war. The Sunni resistance, or Sahwat as they would later be known, defeated al-Qaeda, forcing it to retreat from the confrontation. Command was given to Iraqi members, while the non-Iraqis took a backseat.

Zarqawi died in 2006. He was succeeded by Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir (Abu Ayyoub al-Masri), another foreign leader of al-Qaeda. The organization was at the time, however, identified as Iraqi and operating under the name the Islamic State in Iraq, led by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi. He would be succeeded after his killing by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

When the Syrian conflict erupted from peaceful protests against the regime of president Bashar Assad in 2011, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was quick to dispatch Syrian Abu Mohammad al-Julani to the country. Al-Julani was a leading member of al-Qaeda and worked for al-Baghdadi as part of the Islamic State in Iraq. In Syria, he was tasked with organizing an armed movement to act against the regime.

The Syrian conflict led to the fallout between al-Baghdadi and al-Julani. Al-Baghdadi wanted al-Julani to operate under his command in Syria. In 2013, the Islamic State in Iraq transformed to become the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant after Syrian regime forces withdrew from the border with Iraq. Al-Baghdadi then declared that the Sykes–Picot border between the neighboring countries was no more.

Al-Julani, however, rebelled against his Iraqi leader, say the latter’s supporters. Al-Baghdadi’s supports showed no mercy to their adversaries, whether they were Iraqi or Syrian government soldiers, or civilians who were viewed as apostates or infidels, or even fighters from other Islamic organizations that did not swear allegiance to the “State”.

The al-Qaeda leadership tried to avert confrontation with al-Baghdadi. It sent some of its most prominent leaders to Syria to resolve the dispute or strengthen al-Julani should efforts fail to end the rift.

The Iraqi leader, however, did not forgive the Syrian for “betraying the cause.” Al-Baghdadi believed that al-Julani turned against him when he was transferred to Syria, where he formed the al-Nusra Front as an independent branch of al-Qaeda. This branch would answer directly to the al-Qaeda command based on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, not the Iraqi leadership.

On the ground, ISIS swallowed the Syrian al-Qaeda branch whole. Its sweep of Syria was only stopped with the beginning of the operations of the US-led international coalition against al-Baghdadi’s organization in September 2014. This allowed al-Julani to catch his breath and rebuild the al-Nusra Front. Its operations became limited to northwestern Syria, the only region where al-Baghdadi’s fighters could not expand.

Al-Julani also waged small “civil” wars against extremist Islamic groups active in areas under his control. He succeeded through force and sometimes through dialogue to eliminate the majority of armed groups that were fighting independently against the regime. The groups that managed to escape began to work directly under the Turkish army and its intelligence after their forces secured vast areas of northwestern Syria (Idlib and Latakia), its north (Aleppo) and northeast (al-Raqqa).

ISIS was defeated militarily in Syria in spring 2019 and al-Baghdadi died in a US raid in the Idlib countryside later that year. ISIS retains a few cells that are trying to regroup under the command of their new leader Abu Ibrahim al‑Hashimi al‑Qurashi, but they are still weak and do not pose a serious threat to adversaries, whether in the Syrian regime or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which was established as a “successor” of the al-Nusra Front.

The ISIS collapse in Syria did not spell the end of clashes between the group and al-Qaeda. ISIS affiliates across the globe have pledged allegiance to their new leader and are active in combating “infidels and apostates” in various countries, such as Yemen, Somalia and Afghanistan, and the African Sahel. ISIS media boasts of these clashes and often reports on fighting between its members and al-Qaeda in the Sahel region.

There is no doubt that these small “civil wars” between ISIS and al-Qaeda may expand or become contained. The weakness of both organizations is the factor that will determine which way the fighting will go. The weakness does not allow them to wage a largescale confrontation that would end in the victory of one over the other and the “unification of banners”. The Armed Islamic Group of Algeria tried to do this in the 1990s and failed.

Another factor is that the balance of power does not favor one party over the other as it did in the past. Under al-Baghdadi, ISIS used to boast that it was ruling a “state” due to its control over large swathes of Syria and Iraq. This is no longer the case. Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, is now no more than an armed group that does not control a “state” or even an “emirate”. It is now at the command of the “owners of the land,” such as the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Both organizations appear at an impasse, meaning the competition between them and their terrorist attacks around the globe will continue for years to come, unless their leaders agree to unite forces.



Trump's Week of Tariff Turmoil Rings Recession Alarm

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura  REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
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Trump's Week of Tariff Turmoil Rings Recession Alarm

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura  REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices as people walk on a pedestrian bridge at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Go Nakamura REFILE - QUALITY REPEAT

A week of turbulence unleashed by US President Donald Trump's tariffs showed little sign of easing on Friday, with financial markets again whipsawing and foreign leaders grappling with how to respond to a dismantling of the world trade order.

A brief reprieve for battered stocks seen after Trump decided to pause duties for dozens of countries for 90 days quickly dissipated, as attention returned to his escalating trade war with China that has fueled global recession fears.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to assuage sceptics by telling a cabinet meeting on Thursday that more than 75 countries wanted to start trade negotiations. Trump himself expressed hope of a deal with China, the world's No.2 economy.

But the uncertainty in the meantime extended some of the most volatile trading since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500 index ended 3.5% lower on Thursday and is now down about 15% from its all-time peak in February.

Asian indices mostly followed Wall Street lower on Friday with Japan's Nikkei down 4%, though markets in Taiwan and Hong Kong turned positive and European stocks were set to open slightly firmer.

A sell-off in government bonds - which caught Trump's attention before Wednesday's pause - picked up pace on Friday with US long-term borrowing costs set for their biggest weekly increase since 1982. Gold, a safe haven for investors in times of crisis, scaled a record high.

"Recession risk is much, much higher now than it was a couple weeks ago," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at investment fund Janus Henderson.

Bessent on Thursday shrugged off the renewed market turmoil and said striking deals with other countries would bring certainty.

The US and Vietnam have agreed to begin formal trade talks, the White House said. The Southeast Asian manufacturing hub is prepared to crack down on Chinese goods being shipped to the United States via its territory in the hope of avoiding tariffs, Reuters exclusively reported on Friday.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, meanwhile, has set up a trade task force that hopes to visit Washington next week. Taiwan said it also expects to be included in the first batch of trading partners to hold talks with Washington.

CHINA DEAL?

As Trump suddenly paused his 'reciprocal' tariffs on other countries hours after they came into effect earlier this week, he ratcheted up duties on Chinese imports as punishment for Beijing's initial move to retaliate.

Trump has now imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods of 145% since taking office, a White House official said.

Chinese officials have been canvassing other trading partners about how to deal with the US tariffs, most recently talking to counterparts in Spain, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

Trump told reporters at the White House he thought the United States could make a deal with China, but he reiterated his argument that Beijing had "really taken advantage" of the US for a long time.

"I'm sure that we'll be able to get along very well," Trump said, adding that he respected Chinese President Xi Jinping. "In a true sense he's been a friend of mine for a long period of time, and I think that we'll end up working out something that's very good for both countries."

China, which has rejected what it called threats and blackmail from Washington, restricted imports of Hollywood films, targeting one of the most high-profile American exports.

The US tariff pause also does not apply to duties paid by Canada and Mexico, whose goods are still subject to 25% fentanyl-related tariffs unless they comply with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement's rules of origin.

With trade hostilities persisting among the top three US trade partners, Goldman Sachs estimates the probability of a recession at 45%.

Even with the rollback, the overall average import duty rate imposed by the US is the highest in more than a century, according to Yale University researchers.

The pause also did little to soothe business leaders' worries about the fallout from Trump's trade war and its chaotic implementation: soaring costs, falling orders and snarled supply chains.

One reprieve came, however, when the European Union said on Thursday it would pause its first counter-tariffs.

The EU had been due to launch counter-tariffs on about 21 billion euros ($23 billion) of US imports next Tuesday in response to Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium. It is still assessing how to respond to US car tariffs and the broader 10% levies that remain in place.

Finance ministers from the 27-country bloc will brainstorm on Friday how to use the pause to get a trade deal with Washington and how to coordinate their efforts to handle tariffs if they do not.

European authorities estimate the impact of the US tariffs its economy would total 0.5% to 1.0% of GDP. Given the EU economy as a whole is forecast to grow 0.9% this year, according to the European Central Bank, the US tariffs could tip the EU into recession.