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Fitch Affirms Jordan at 'BB-'; Outlook Negative

Fitch Affirms Jordan at 'BB-'; Outlook Negative
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Fitch Affirms Jordan at 'BB-'; Outlook Negative

Fitch Affirms Jordan at 'BB-'; Outlook Negative

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jordan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “BB-” with a Negative Outlook.

The Negative Outlook reflects the risk that government debt deteriorates further amid an uncertain recovery and a difficult social context following the coronavirus pandemic.

“We estimate that Jordan's general government (GG) deficit widened to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2020, from 1.4 percent in 2019, driven by a 40 percent collapse in non-tax revenue,” the report read.

“We expect the GG deficit to narrow to 4.1 percent of GDP in 2021 and 2.7 percent in 2022,” it added.

Fitch further expected GG debt to peak in 2021, with the subsequent decline aided by a return to growth and primary surpluses.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance revealed that domestic debt reached 12.13 billion dinars and the foreign debt totaled 13.6 billion dinars at the end of March.

The GG debt totals 85.6 percent of the GDP of the country.

Since the beginning of the year, the Ministry has changed the method of calculating the GG debt, with the exception of debts from the Social Security Investment Fund, which amount to around 7 billion dinars.

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Business

IMF Chief Georgieva Says War’s 'Adverse Scenario' Already in Effect

FILE PHOTO: Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva takes part in "Debate on the Global Economy" during the 2026 annual IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., US, April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva takes part in "Debate on the Global Economy" during the 2026 annual IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., US, April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo
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IMF Chief Georgieva Says War’s 'Adverse Scenario' Already in Effect

FILE PHOTO: Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva takes part in "Debate on the Global Economy" during the 2026 annual IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., US, April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva takes part in "Debate on the Global Economy" during the 2026 annual IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., US, April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo

The head of the International Monetary Fund on Monday warned that inflation was already picking up and the global economy could face a “much worse outcome” if the war in the Middle East drags into 2027 and oil prices hit around $125 per barrel.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the continuation of the war meant that the global lender's “reference scenario” assuming a short-lived conflict - which forecast a minor growth slowdown to 3.1% and a minor increase in prices to 4.4% - was no longer possible.

“This scenario, with every day that passes, is further and further behind in the rear-view mirror,” Georgieva said.

The continuation of the war, a forecast of ⁠an oil price around or above $100 per barrel, and rising inflationary pressures meant the IMF's “adverse scenario” was already in effect, she said.

Long-term inflation expectations remained anchored and financial conditions were not tightening, but that could change if the war continued, she told a conference hosted by the Milken Institute.

“Now, if this continues into 2027 and we have oil prices of $125 more or less, then we have to expect a much worse outcome,” she said.

“Then we are going to see inflation climbing up and then inevitably, inflation expectations would start de-anchoring.”

The IMF last month issued three scenarios for the global GDP growth path in 2026 and 2027 amid massive uncertainty over the war in the Middle East - the main “reference forecast,” a middle “adverse scenario” and the much worse “severe scenario.”

The ⁠adverse scenario forecast global growth slowing to 2.5% in 2026 and headline inflation of 5.4%. The severe scenario forecast growth of just 2% and headline inflation of 5.8%.

Georgieva said the IMF was carefully tracking the slow-moving impact of the conflict on supply chains, with fertilizer already ⁠30% to 40% more expensive, which would drive food prices up between 3% and 6%. Other industries could also be affected.

“What I want to stress is that is really serious,” she said, expressing concern that many policymakers were still acting as ⁠if the crisis would end in a couple of months and were putting in place measures to cut the impact on consumers and business, which was keeping demand for oil high.

“Don't throw gasoline on fire,” she said. “Everybody in this room knows that if your supply shrinks, your demand has to follow.”

Business

Oil Extends Slide as Trump Indicates Possible Iran Peace Deal

A crude oil tanker unloads at the oil terminal of the port in Qingdao, in China's eastern Shandong province on April 28, 2026. (Photo by CN-STR / AFP) / China OUT
A crude oil tanker unloads at the oil terminal of the port in Qingdao, in China's eastern Shandong province on April 28, 2026. (Photo by CN-STR / AFP) / China OUT
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Oil Extends Slide as Trump Indicates Possible Iran Peace Deal

A crude oil tanker unloads at the oil terminal of the port in Qingdao, in China's eastern Shandong province on April 28, 2026. (Photo by CN-STR / AFP) / China OUT
A crude oil tanker unloads at the oil terminal of the port in Qingdao, in China's eastern Shandong province on April 28, 2026. (Photo by CN-STR / AFP) / China OUT

Oil prices fell for a second day on Wednesday on expectations bottled-up supply from the key Middle East producing region could resume flowing after US President Donald Trump indicated a possible peace deal may be reached to end the war with Iran.

Brent crude futures fell $1.89, or 1.7%, to $107.98 a barrel as of 0340 GMT, after dropping 4% in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate futures eased $1.83, or 1.8%, to $100.44, after settling down 3.9% the day before.

On Tuesday, Trump unexpectedly said he would briefly pause an operation to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing ‌progress toward ‌a comprehensive agreement with Iran, without giving details on the ‌agreement. ⁠There was no ⁠immediate reaction from Tehran.

"This signals potential de-escalation and raises hopes for the release of stranded vessels inside the Gulf, which could gradually bring supply back to the market," said Anh Pham, senior research specialist for oil at LSEG.

Pham added that prices remain elevated with both Brent and WTI staying above $100 per barrel as prospects for a peace deal remain uncertain, while it will take time ⁠for trade flows to be fully restored even if a ‌deal is reached.

Trump said the US Navy ‌would continue its blockade of Iranian ports. The supply loss to the global ‌market has pushed prices higher with Brent trading last week at its ‌highest since March 2022.

"We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom ... will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed," Trump wrote ‌on social media.

Trump's announcement came only hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed reporters on the effort, ⁠announced on Sunday, to ⁠escort stranded tankers through the strait.

On Monday, the US military said it had destroyed several Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, while guiding two vessels out of the Gulf through the strait. The Strait of Hormuz closure has drawn down global inventories as refineries try to make up the production shortfall.

US crude oil inventories fell for a third week, while gasoline and distillate stocks also declined, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

Crude stocks fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week ended May 1, the sources said. Gasoline inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels compared to a week earlier, the sources said.

Business

Russia’s LNG Exports up 8.6% in January to April, Data Shows

A general view of the liquefied natural gas plant operated by Sakhalin Energy at Prigorodnoye on the Pacific island of Sakhalin, Russia July 15, 2021. (Reuters)
A general view of the liquefied natural gas plant operated by Sakhalin Energy at Prigorodnoye on the Pacific island of Sakhalin, Russia July 15, 2021. (Reuters)
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Russia’s LNG Exports up 8.6% in January to April, Data Shows

A general view of the liquefied natural gas plant operated by Sakhalin Energy at Prigorodnoye on the Pacific island of Sakhalin, Russia July 15, 2021. (Reuters)
A general view of the liquefied natural gas plant operated by Sakhalin Energy at Prigorodnoye on the Pacific island of Sakhalin, Russia July 15, 2021. (Reuters)

Russia's ‌exports of liquefied natural gas rose 8.6% in January to April to 11.4 million metric tons from the same period last year due to supplies from the Arctic LNG 2 project, which reached 1 million tons in the first four months of the year, preliminary LSEG data ‌showed on Tuesday.

US ‌sanctions against Moscow over ‌the ⁠Ukraine conflict have restrained ⁠Russian LNG exports, particularly from the Arctic LNG 2 plant, where operations have been hindered owing to difficulty securing buyers.

In April alone, total Russian exports of LNG rose ⁠13.2% from a year ago to ‌2.92 million ‌tons.

Data also showed that Russian LNG ‌exports to Europe in January to April ‌jumped 20.8% year-on-year to 6.4 million tons. In April, they rose to around 1.6 million tons from 1.2 million tons ‌a year earlier.

In January, EU countries gave their final ⁠approval ⁠to ban Russian gas imports by late-2027.

Total exports from Novatek's Yamal LNG plant in the January to April period fell by 1.5% year-on-year to 6.5 million tons.

Asia-oriented Sakhalin-2, controlled by Gazprom, exported 3.7 million tons in the first four months of the year, up from 3.6 million tons during the same period last year.