World Bank Upgrades Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast in 21/22

File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)
File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)
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World Bank Upgrades Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast in 21/22

File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)
File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia is forecast to grow 2.4 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2022, according to a World Bank report.

Previous estimates suggested that the Saudi economy was set to grow 2 percent in 2021 and 2.2 percent in 2022.

The report explained that its forecast changed following positive developments that took place during the pandemic, in addition to higher oil prices and tapering oil production cuts, and the start of a new government investment program.

The World Bank believes that in Saudi Arabia, “additional oil production cuts deepened the contraction in the oil sector but was offset by improving growth momentum in the non-oil sector.”

The World Bank stated that in oil exporters, higher oil prices will support growth and government revenue recoveries.

“Oil prices are expected to average $62 per barrel in 2021 and 2022.”

Meanwhile, the Regional Economic Outlook report issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), estimates the growth of non-oil GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to hit 3.5 percent in 2021, and then 3.4 percent in 2022.

Regarding Saudi Arabia, it expects the Kingdom's economy to grow 2.9 percent in 2021, while it is expected to reach 4 percent in 2022.

For its part, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) announced in its latest report that the Kingdom’s GDP will grow 2.4 percent this year, while it will jump to 3.1 percent in 2022.

The Saudi Central Bank (Sama) reported in its recent data an increase in the value of point of sales (POS), which expresses the volume of direct individual consumption in the country. It increased 3 percent last week to reach SR9.4 billion, compared to SR9.17 billion during the previous week.



Saudi Arabia Begins Marketing International Bonds Following 2025 Borrowing Plan Announcement

Riyadh (Reuters)
Riyadh (Reuters)
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Saudi Arabia Begins Marketing International Bonds Following 2025 Borrowing Plan Announcement

Riyadh (Reuters)
Riyadh (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia has entered global debt markets with a planned sale of bonds in three tranches, aiming to use the proceeds to cover budget deficits and repay outstanding debt, according to IFR (International Financing Review).

The indicative pricing for the three-year bonds is set at 120 basis points above US Treasury bonds, while the six- and ten-year bonds are priced at 130 and 140 basis points above US Treasuries, respectively, as reported by Reuters.

The bonds, expected to be of benchmark size (typically at least $500 million), come a day after Saudi Arabia unveiled its 2025 borrowing plan. The Kingdom’s financing needs for the year are estimated at SAR 139 billion ($37 billion), with SAR 101 billion ($26.8 billion) allocated to cover the budget deficit and the remainder to service existing debt.

The National Debt Management Center (NDMC) announced that Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan had approved the 2025 borrowing plan following its endorsement by the NDMC Board. The plan highlights public debt developments for 2024, domestic debt market initiatives, and the 2025 financing roadmap, including the Kingdom’s issuance calendar for local sukuk denominated in Saudi Riyals.

The NDMC emphasized that Saudi Arabia aims to enhance sustainable access to debt markets and broaden its investor base. For 2025, the Kingdom will continue diversifying its domestic and international financing channels to meet funding needs efficiently. Plans include issuing sovereign debt instruments at fair prices under risk management frameworks and pursuing specialized financing opportunities to support economic growth, such as export credit agency-backed funding, infrastructure development financing, and exploring new markets and currencies.

Recently, Saudi Arabia secured a $2.5 billion Sharia-compliant revolving credit facility for three years from three regional and international financial institutions to address budgetary needs.

In 2024, Saudi Arabia issued $17 billion in dollar-denominated bonds, including $12 billion in January and $5 billion in sukuk in May. Rating agencies have recognized the Kingdom’s financial stability. In November, Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s rating to “AA3,” while Fitch assigned an “A+” rating, both with stable outlooks. S&P Global rated the Kingdom at “A/A-1” with a positive outlook, reflecting its low credit risk and strong capacity to meet financial obligations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Saudi Arabia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio at 26.2% for 2024, describing it as low and sustainable. The IMF projects this ratio to reach 35% by 2029, with foreign borrowing playing a significant role in financing fiscal deficits.