Secret Jordanian Document Proposes ‘Change in Behavior’ of Syrian Regime

The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
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Secret Jordanian Document Proposes ‘Change in Behavior’ of Syrian Regime

The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)

A “secret” Jordanian document has proposed a new approach to dealing with the Syrian regime. The document puts in place steps that aim to achieve gradual change in behavior by the regime, leading up to the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the war-torn country and recognizing the “legitimate interests” of Russia there.

A senior western official, who read the document, confirmed that it was discussed between Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah II, who tackled it with US President Joe Biden in Washington in July and Russian President Vladimir Putin in August.

The official told Asharq Al-Awsat that Jordan was encouraged to pursue its efforts in Syria after it received support from Washington over the extension of gas pipelines through Syria, Egypt and its own territories to Lebanon. It also received pledges that it will not come under sanctions in line with Caesar Act for working with Damascus.

Russia, meanwhile, exerted efforts to reach the recent settlement in the southern Syrian province of Daraa. The deal made sure that civilians would not seek asylum in Jordan and that Iran would not expand its influence in Daraa. In return, Jordan would reopen the border with Syria and officials would exchange visits to hold military, security and economic talks.

Last week, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad held talks with his Egyptian, Jordanian and Tunisian counterparts. In contrast, the Syrian opposition practically held no meetings in New York.

On the Arab scene, consensus remains elusive over Damascus’ return to the Arab League. Its membership was suspended in 2012 in wake of the uprising and the regime’s violent crackdown on peaceful protesters. Arab countries are hinging Syria’s return on Damascus taking tangible steps in implementing the political solution in line with UN Security Council resolution 2254 and ensuring the withdrawal of foreign militias from its territories.

Multiple failures
The western official said the secret document stemmed from an assessment that the approach towards ending the Syrian conflict that was adopted in the past ten years has been a failure on all levels. As it stands, some 6.7 Syrians have fled their homes, 6.6 million are displaced and 13 million are in need of humanitarian aid and 80 percent of the population lives in poverty.

As for ISIS, it may have been defeated in March 2019, but the terrorist group may still regroup in various Syrian regions, including the desert (Badia) and southeastern region that borders Jordan.

The official revealed that the secret document also addresses Iran’s presence in Syria. It concluded that Tehran “enjoys growing military and economic influence over the regime and different regions in the country, especially the southwest”, where drugs smuggling – a main source of income for its militias – is rampant, posing a threat to the region and beyond.

New approach
Based on the above, the document proposes a new approach that could refocus attention on the political solution in Syria based on resolution 2254 and addressing the humanitarian crisis and its security impact on the country and the region. The approach would adopt a series of accumulative steps that would focus on “combating terrorism and containing Iran’s growing influence” with the ultimate goal being changing the behavior of the regime. In return, Damascus would be offered incentives that would reflect positively on the Syrian people and allow the return of refugees and the displaced, revealed the official.

These ideas align with those proposed by UN envoy Geir Pedersen, who had suggested a “step-for-step” approach towards Syria that would start with an American-Russian understanding that would identify these steps. These steps would then be backed by the region, Arab world and Europe before a mechanism is put in place for the regime to be implemented.

The western official said garnering Russia’s support for the new approach was fundamental, as was recognizing Moscow’s legitimate interests. There are hopes that cooperation could take place with Russia to determine the common points of interest so that efforts can move ahead towards the political solution and implementing resolution 2254.

Roadmap
Among the obstacles hindering the new approach is the division over how the regime would be involved. Another obstacle is the lack of Arab consensus over Syria’s return to the Arab League and lack of progress in the political solution based on resolution 2254. Another hurdle is the US and Europe’s commitment to pressure tools against Damascus: sanctions, isolation and funding the reconstruction. The Caesar Act is yet another obstacle.

To address some of these hurdles, it was suggested that Jordan test the waters with Damascus before expanding contacts with the regime. Experts have therefore, sought to draft an “executive roadmap” over how to achieve the “step-for-step” approach that would cover the abovementioned files and the necessary stance from Damascus over “changing the behavior of the regime”, the peace process, resolution 2254, the Constitutional Committee, Iran’s role and return of refugees.

A top priority at the moment appears the demand for “all non-Syrian forces to withdraw from the contact lines” and then the eventual pullout from the country of all foreign forces that deployed there after 2011. In return, American forces would withdraw from Syria and dismantle the al-Tanf base on the Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi border, and channels of coordination would be opened between the Syrian army and security forces with their counterparts from neighboring countries to control border security.

The document did not include a timetable for its execution. It also did not include a stance on the Russian military presence in Syria even though it did recognize Moscow’s interests. It also did not address Damascus’ stance that the deployment of Iranian militias was based on its request, noted the western official.



What Message is Hamas Sending by Resuming Rocket Fire on Israel?

Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
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What Message is Hamas Sending by Resuming Rocket Fire on Israel?

Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen

The launch of 10 rockets by Hamas’s armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, toward Israel on Sunday surprised many observers, marking a sharp escalation in rocket fire that had largely been limited to one or two missiles since Israel broke a truce on March 18.

Most recent rocket attacks were believed to have come from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, but Sunday’s barrage was claimed by Hamas, signaling a possible shift in the dynamics of the conflict.

According to Israeli claims, the rockets were fired from the al-Zawaida area, north of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. However, field sources told Asharq Al-Awsat the rockets were launched from a different location — one that has rarely been used for such operations.

The recent rocket barrage by Hamas may have carried a deeper strategic message, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat, suggesting the attack was intended to raise questions within Israel about the group’s ability to access its missile arsenal — or hint at a regained capacity to manufacture rockets.

Hamas sources declined to specify when the rockets used in the latest attack were produced but stressed that the decision to launch was shaped primarily by field conditions and the assessment of fighters and commanders on the ground.

“At times, we aim to send specific political messages,” said a Hamas source, who requested anonymity.

“For example, we want to underline that Israel has failed to defeat the movement and its military wing, despite carrying out assassinations of senior and field-level commanders,” they added.

Hamas has denied that its latest rocket barrage was a direct response to the recent assassinations of senior figures, saying the attack was part of its broader reaction to what it described as “ongoing massacres” committed by Israel against the Palestinian people.

“This was a routine response within the framework of confronting continuous Israeli aggression,” the Hamas source told Asharq Al-Awsat, rejecting suggestions that the assault was linked to specific events.

The timing of the rocket fire raised eyebrows, coming just hours after a rare protest in Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, where demonstrators chanted against Hamas, condemned the rocket attacks, and demanded an end to the war.

Protesters also called for Hamas to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and stop speaking on behalf of its residents.

Asked whether the barrage was meant to send a message to a restless population, Hamas sources denied any connection.

“The rocket fire had nothing to do with the protest in Jabalia,” one source said, pointing to similar demonstrations in recent weeks that were not followed by rocket launches.

When pressed about the implications of such protests for the group’s future in Gaza, the source said internal discussions had taken place.

“The movement recognizes people’s right to express themselves — but not at the expense of the resistance,” the source said.

“There must be clear national guidelines that prioritize ending the war while preserving the legitimacy of the resistance,” they added.

Gaza Governance

Hamas also pushed back against accusations that it is clinging to power in Gaza, placing blame on rival faction Fatah and Israel for blocking proposals aimed at resolving the territory’s political deadlock.

“Hamas has no issue stepping down from governing Gaza,” a source said. “The real obstacle lies with others who have rejected every proposal laid on the table.”

The source pointed to a proposed community support committee, formed with Egyptian mediation, which was meant to take over governance duties. “We showed maximum flexibility, but neither Fatah nor Israel accepted this mechanism,” the source added.

As for whether stepping down from power could weaken Hamas's influence in Gaza, the source appeared unconcerned. “The movement is confident in its endurance,” the source said.

“Even if Hamas relinquishes control and enters a long-term ceasefire, it will continue to exist and maintain its presence,” they affirmed.

A Fatah delegation had held talks with Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty two days ago, focusing primarily on internal Palestinian reconciliation and the future governance of Gaza, as Hamas signaled readiness to hand over administrative responsibilities to a proposed community support committee.

Multiple Hamas sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group had informed Egyptian officials of its willingness to allow a minister from the Palestinian Authority’s Ramallah-based government to head the committee, with a deputy from Gaza appointed to assist.

A Hamas delegation is expected to travel to Cairo in the coming days to continue discussions with Egyptian officials on the evolving plans for Gaza’s administration and broader efforts to resolve the internal Palestinian divide.