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Study Finds ‘Unprecedented Change’ in Demand for Electricity in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s electricity demand is stagnating for the first time in decades. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Arabia’s electricity demand is stagnating for the first time in decades. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Study Finds ‘Unprecedented Change’ in Demand for Electricity in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s electricity demand is stagnating for the first time in decades. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Arabia’s electricity demand is stagnating for the first time in decades. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is undergoing unprecedented changes following the implementation of efficiency measures and energy price reforms, according to a study by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC).

The Kingdom’s electricity demand is stagnating for the first time in decades, suggesting that consumer behavior has structurally shifted, raising uncertainties about the potential trajectory of long-term electricity demand.

KAPSARC projected the growth in total Saudi electricity demand to significantly decelerate over the coming decade compared with historical trends, to reach 365.4 terawatthours (TWh) by 2030.

The study predicted demand to grow more rapidly in the industrial and services segments than in the residential sector, accounting for the largest share of total consumption in 2030.

“We also simulate four additional scenarios for domestic electricity price reforms and efficiency policies,” said the study.

Aligning Saudi electricity prices with the average electricity price among G20 countries can reduce total electricity demand by 71.6 TWh in 2030, which could enforce efficiency policies that can reduce total electricity demand by up to 118.7 TWh.

“Moreover, alternative policy scenarios suggest that the macroeconomic gains from energy savings can alleviate some of the Saudi energy system’s burden on public finance,” said the study.

Projecting future demand for electricity is central to power sector planning, as these projections inform capacity investment requirements and related infrastructure expansions, it continued.

“Electricity is not currently economically storable in large volumes. Thus, the underlying drivers of electricity demand and potential market shifts must be carefully considered to minimize power system costs,” it explained.

Demand for electricity in Saudi Arabia has multiplied since the development of the electricity sector in the early 1970s, driven by a rapidly increasing population, dynamic economic growth, and low regulated energy prices.

In 2018, total Saudi electricity demand reached 299.2 TWh.

The Kingdom is the 14-largest electricity consumer globally. Its consumption is similar to that of more populated countries like Mexico and to more advanced economies like Italy, whose 2019 GDP was $2,151.4 billion, compared to $704.0 billion for Saudi Arabia, according to The World Bank.

In recent years, the Saudi government has addressed the rapidly increasing fuel consumption of its power sector by expanding efficient gas plants. This step has reduced the country’s reliance on oil and refined products for power generation. Moreover, Saudi policymakers have also enacted some demand-side measures.

In 2010, the Kingdom began promoting several efficiency initiatives to rationalize energy consumption by establishing the Saudi Energy Efficiency Center (SEEC 2018). Additionally, the Saudi government implemented the first round of national energy price reforms (EPR) in 2016, with the second round in 2018.

The scale of these recently implemented EPR and efficiency measures are unprecedented in Saudi Arabia. Thus, these policies’ potential effects on future demand cannot be assessed based on past experiences.

The study emphasized the importance of enhancing the methodological aspects of energy demand projections.

“Using advanced analytical tools to capture market transformations, behavioral adjustments, and interdependencies across economic agents, we can better project electricity demand pathways,” it stressed.

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Business

Many in Egypt Struggle as the Costs of a Distant War Drive up Prices in Local Markets

Cars are seen on a road at Nasr City, a suburb of Cairo, Egypt May 3, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
Cars are seen on a road at Nasr City, a suburb of Cairo, Egypt May 3, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
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Many in Egypt Struggle as the Costs of a Distant War Drive up Prices in Local Markets

Cars are seen on a road at Nasr City, a suburb of Cairo, Egypt May 3, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
Cars are seen on a road at Nasr City, a suburb of Cairo, Egypt May 3, 2021. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

Sayyed Ragheb was already struggling to keep his family afloat, earning less than $100 a month. Now he fears it will get even worse after Egypt hiked fuel prices because of the Iran war.

The father of four school-age children works day-to-day in cafes and sometimes in construction. With prices of meat and produce jumping just the past week, he worries about meeting his family’s basic needs, The AP news reported.

“This means a price increase for everything,” said Ragheb, as he served hot drinks at a cafe on a recent evening in Cairo. “This is catastrophic for someone like me.”

Egypt is one of the few countries in the Middle East not directly affected by the war, now in its third week with no sign of abating. It’s not part of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, and it hasn’t been targeted by Iranian missile and drone fire, like Arab Gulf nations, or by Israeli bombardment, like Lebanon.

But the nation of over 108 million people is feeling the conflict’s repercussions. Soaring energy prices forced the government to implement a steep hike in the prices of subsidized fuel and cooking gas.

That is having a domino effect on the prices of other goods and services in Egypt's struggling economy. Moreover, it comes during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when families traditionally hold large dinner gatherings, and ahead of the holiday of Eid al-Fitr, a major shopping season when people buy new clothes, especially for children.

Egypt is vulnerable to fuel price hikes World energy prices have surged since the US and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28. Iran retaliated by attacking oil and gas infrastructure across the Persian Gulf and effectively blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's traded oil passes.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, soared from less than $70 a barrel on Feb. 27 to a peak of nearly $120 early March 9. It was hovering around $104 on Wednesday.

The jump is particularly painful for Egypt because the government dedicates a large part of its already strained budget to subsidizing gasoline, fuel and electricity.

Energy prices aren’t its only vulnerability.

Traffic through the Suez Canal, a major source of government income, had started to recover after two years of attacks on Red Sea shipping by Yemen's Houthis. Now some shipping companies are again routing traffic away from the Middle East because of the latest turmoil, and the government says it expects more losses.

Egypt, home to the ancient pyramids, also earns considerable foreign income from tourism. But arrivals are expected to plunge as travelers steer clear of the region.

If the conflict is prolonged and continues to drive up prices and reduce government revenues, the short-term economic pain could become a broader political and economic crisis, said Alexandra Blackman, an expert in Mideast politics at Cornell University.

“That will be more challenging for the regime to manage and control,” she said.

Egypt's president says the price hikes were ‘inevitable’ On March 10, the government announced a 15% hike in the price of gasoline, a 22% hike in cooking gas and a 17% hike in diesel, widely used in commercial and public transport.

President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi acknowledged the pressure on people but said the increases are “inevitable” and “the least expensive” option to protect the economy.

“The requirements of the reality sometimes necessitate taking difficult measures ... to avert harsher options and more serious consequences,” he said over the weekend at an Iftar event, breaking the daily sunrise-to-sunset Ramadan fast.

He said Egypt’s consumption of oil products costs $20 billion annually, including fuel used to operate power plants.

The government imports 28% of its gasoline needs and 45% of its diesel needs, which puts pressure on the budget, said Petroleum Minister Karim Badawy.

The government announced a series of measures aimed at mitigating the impact, including reducing official overseas trips and tightening fuel consumption across the public sector. It also announced salary increases starting in July.

Egypt’s poor and middle class have already seen their purchasing power shrink over the past decade under government austerity measures. The measures included the slashing of subsidies and devaluation of Egypt’s currency as part of an ambitious reform program in 2016.

Inflation jumped from 10% in January to 11.5% in February of this year, according to official figures. The price increases are rippling across the economy in a country where a third of the population is below the poverty line, according to government statistics.

Since the new fuel prices took effect, the cost of meat has jumped 25% and fruit and vegetables rose 15-30%, according to merchants at three markets in Cairo.

Hussein Rashad, a grocer in a poorer district, said customers have become more selective, and most have reduced the amount of vegetables they buy. Some have stopped buying fruit altogether, he said.

“Many things have become out of their reach,” he said.

Ragheb, the cafe worker, said his family has tightened its budget, including resorting to the cheapest food staples. He won't be buying new clothes for his children for the upcoming Eid.

“One has no other option,” he said.

Business

Gold Falls 2% as Inflation Fears Bolster Hawkish Fed Bets

Gold bars after being inspected and polished at a refinery in Sydney (AFP)
Gold bars after being inspected and polished at a refinery in Sydney (AFP)
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Gold Falls 2% as Inflation Fears Bolster Hawkish Fed Bets

Gold bars after being inspected and polished at a refinery in Sydney (AFP)
Gold bars after being inspected and polished at a refinery in Sydney (AFP)

Gold prices fell to a one-month low on Wednesday as investors weighed the risk of a more hawkish US Federal Reserve policy stance, with high oil prices fuelling concerns about inflation.

Spot gold fell 2% to $4,903.19 per ounce as of 1216 GMT, its lowest level since February 18. US gold futures for April delivery also dropped 2% to $4,907.40, according to Reuters.

"Investors are worried about rates staying 'higher-for-longer' due to elevated energy prices ... the longer the Iran conflict goes on, the more likely that scenario," said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money.

While gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, high interest rates curb its appeal by raising the cost of holding bullion and boosting returns on yield-bearing assets.
The Middle East conflict, in its third week, saw Iran target Tel Aviv with missiles in retaliation for Israel's assassination of its security chief, Ali Larijani, Iranian state television reported on Wednesday.

Benchmark Brent futures prices have been above $100 per barrel for the past four sessions.

Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady later in the day.

Investors will parse Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks to assess the central bank's policy view for the rest of 2026, with futures markets seeing only one quarter-percentage-point rate cut this year, in September, and another cut in late 2027.

"Long-term drivers like central bank buying, stagflation risks and diversification demand remain. That should mean higher (gold) prices by end of 2026," Dutta said.

Spot silver fell 1.2% to $78.29 per ounce, spot platinum was down 2.9% at $2,063.69, and palladium lost 2.6% to $1,560.50.

Business

UAE Bank Stocks Jump after Central Bank Launches Resilience Package

A man on a boat with an UAE flag near Dubai Creek, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 5, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Rula Rouhana
A man on a boat with an UAE flag near Dubai Creek, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 5, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Rula Rouhana
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UAE Bank Stocks Jump after Central Bank Launches Resilience Package

A man on a boat with an UAE flag near Dubai Creek, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 5, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Rula Rouhana
A man on a boat with an UAE flag near Dubai Creek, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 5, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Rula Rouhana

The United Arab Emirates central bank (CBUAE) on Tuesday unveiled a package to help bolster banks' liquidity, marking its most significant policy move since the pandemic, as Gulf economies move to weather the impact of the Iran crisis.

UAE banks, whose stocks have seen double-digit losses since the war began last month, jumped on Wednesday morning, with Dubai's Emirates NBD and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank gaining over 6%, and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank up over 5%.

First Abu Dhabi Bank was losing around 1% by 0825 GMT.

The war, now in its third week and without tan end in sight, has thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos as the conflict has spread.

The UAE's financial system "has demonstrated resilience during the current extraordinary circumstances affecting the global and regional markets without any material impact on the banking sector's health and payment systems," the CBUAE board said in a statement.

Under the package approved on Tuesday, banks will gain enhanced access to ⁠reserve balances of up to 30% of the cash reserve requirement and term liquidity facilities in both UAE dirhams and US dollars, the CBUAE said.

Other measures include stopgap relief in liquidity and stable funding ratios as well as the temporary release of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and capital conservation buffer (CCB), it said.

While the measures introduced on Tuesday are larger than a similar package introduced to withstand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, "asset quality pressures could still emerge should the conflict persist and its economic effects deepen," the bank said.

Gulf banks could face domestic deposit outflows of $307 billion if the Middle East conflict deepens, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Monday. The ratings agency said, however, that it had seen no evidence of major outflows of foreign or local funding from banks.

The CBUAE said in Tuesday's statement that the overall stock of liquidity held by UAE banks at the regulator, combined with their net eligible assets for central bank operations, had reached close to $250 billion, of which banks' reserve balances exceed $109 billion.