Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, warned that Russia has been systematically trying to stage a false flag attack against Ukraine.
The former Minister of Foreign affairs added, in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, that his country is surrounded by Russian troops on five different fronts, and that Moscow is sending mixed messages about withdrawing its forces from the border with Ukraine.
Five fronts
As the world watched the massive build-up of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine, officials in Kyiv had their eye on four other fronts.
“In the east of Ukraine, where we have occupied territory, we have a touch line of 400 km that is within our territories. It draws a border between us and the occupied territories supported by Russians,” explained Prystaiko.
“There is also a new front in Belarus, recently opened to us,” where Russia holds military exercises. “This front line is much bigger, it is 1100 Km,” he explained.
“Then to the south, is Crimea where they enlarged their capacity to much more than 12.000 troops.” And to the West of Ukraine, in Moldova, Russian military contingent are stationed in the unrecognized republic of Transnistria.
“Ukraine is more or less surrounded” by Russian forces, the diplomat observed.
Mixed messages
Russia had announced, earlier this week, it was withdrawing some of its troops from the border it shares with Ukraine. However western officials said there was no evidence of withdrawal, and described the move as a “ruse”.
Prystaiko said that the message was not clear. “Russians are claiming that some of the 130.000 troops brought close to the borders for exercise are being pulled back. We have seen pictures of tanks on a bridge between Russia mainland and the Crimean Peninsula. But at the same time, we see more of them coming, new mobile bridges being built, and new hospitals being erected next to our borders. So the message is not clear.”
He added: “The last report from Russia is that the troops have to finish their exercises by February 20th. We have to see whether troops will be brought back to Siberia, or if they will stay in their current positions.”
False flag attacks
The US, UK and NATO have repeatedly warned of a possible “false-flag” attack that Russia could use to justify an invasion.
Such a move seems to be under way, according to western allies, as separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions announced the evacuation of civilians to Russia in what looks like an effort to paint Ukraine as the aggressor.
Prystaiko said Russia has “systematically been trying to stage (a false flag attack). For example, in Crimea, they claimed that they had to protect two million people against possible attacks from Ukrainians coming all the way from Kyiv to take over” back in 2014.
He continued: “If they want to stage something and feed it to the international media, they will. If they need a couple of pictures, they will use them.”
Strategic drills
Putin monitored on Saturday a sweeping exercise that involved multiple practice missile launches, in a new show of force as world leaders gathered at the Munich Security Conference.
The Ukrainian ambassador to the UK believes that “this particular message is rather addressed to the West, because Putin is trying to achieve different goals in different theaters.”
He explained: “One is the Ukraine, and that is an immediate attempt to put us back on the table and initiate the Minsk agreements on their conditions. Another one is focused on the West. By blackmailing us, they are trying to threaten the West into accepting certain concessions. Some of these concessions are unreasonable, unjustified, and unrealistic. Like asking for NATO to be rolled back to its 1997 line, and stripping off the newly joined members of any sort of defenses. They are asking for so much, hoping to get something.”
He continued: “I believe that these newest drills are directed at NATO.”
Avoiding panic
Earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the West not to create panic, amid warnings of an imminent Russian invasion.
“People ask why is Ukraine keeping calm. It is not because we are naïve,” explained Prystaiko. “We grew thick skin and became accustomed over the seven-and-a-half years, as 13,500 people lost their lives (in conflict with Russia), and we lost 7 percent of our territory, including Crimea that has a population of 2 million.”
“This is why understand the situation differently from Europeans.”
He added: “President Zelensky was asking our Western partners not to go public and to talk to us, and tell us about the dangers and challenges. And believe us, we understand the dangers. We were not stubborn.”
“We just believe that we are balancing the message within our society. We are preparing, our army is ready.”
Strengthening Ukraine’s defenses
The Ukrainian diplomat confirmed that his country was strengthening its defenses. He said: “We used to have 250,000 troops in the army until recently. We have now decided to bump it up by another hundred thousand. We also have 300,000 in the so-called territorial defense units. They are composed of people aiming to defend their own regions. They're not combatant units, but they can withstand the pressure of saboteurs and defend their small cities and towns.”
“We also have a reserve to which 1.6 million to 2 million people signed up. We also have 500,000 veterans who went through war in the past. This is considerable manpower. These people know how to fight. They've been doing it.”
However, Prystaiko noted that “we're missing equipment to provide them with. This is a huge investment, and we rely in some parts on our partners’ assistance.”
Military training
Commenting on the images that have been circulating of civilians receiving military training, the Ukrainian ambassador said: “This is not normal in a normal society. But is very much normal in Ukraine right now.”
That said, “we still want to preserve the normality within society,” he noted, adding: “Although unfortunately, society is preparing itself to withstand the pressure. We are realistic. Not everyone will be able to defend themselves. But if you come to the hunting shop, you will see that shelves are empty. There is nothing there, no cartridges, no tents, no uniforms. People are seriously buying non-perishable food, checking where the next bomb shelter is, and revamping them because they've never been in use since the Cold War.”
At the same time, and despite the fact that people are worrying they remain quite “calm, resilient and resolute”, he insisted.
Western support
When asked whether he thought enough was being done by western allies to support Ukraine, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs replied: “It is never enough, in the sense that our people are still suffering and are being shelled. So much more can be done.”
That said, he praised the UK’s “clear position” and its continuous efforts to support Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity.
“I'm quite happy that I am here in this particular capital,” he said. “So much is being done in terms of support, whether it be financial or political. Sometimes, it also includes military support, which is very important. The political message that (the UK is sending in its clear support of Ukraine) is opening up the doors for everybody else”.
NATO membership
In 2019, Ukraine adopted an amendment that enshrined the ultimate goal of joining Nato as a member in the country’s constitution.
Talking about Kyiv’s ambition to join the organization, ambassador Prystaiko said: “When Ukraine became independent, we started looking for ways of defending ourselves.”
He refuted Russia’s claims that NATO was “pulling Ukraine in,” and “encroaching on Russian borders,” noting: “Many nations are actually seeking NATO’s membership, it is not the other way around.”
He added: “We were trying to get into this club, but we are not yet allowed by its members. We are trying to flee Russian influence, and its model. We do not want to be threatening the rest of the world. This model is not attractive to us.”
“We are a big nation, our territory is in Europe, and we want to be Western-oriented. We are geographically, historically, and religiously there. The nation is very much united in this outlook.”
Despite not being a member, Ukraine is preparing itself through adopting the required reforms and taking part in exercises. However, the ambassador admitted that “at the end of the day, it will depend on the decision of NATO’s 30 members.”
Economic cost
Ukraine’s lost output between 2014 and 2020 attributable to the conflict with Russia totals US$ 280 billion, or up to US$ 40 billion a year, according to a recent study published by the Center for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).
Ambassador Prystaiko lamented that all these losses are coming in the way of his country’s economic recovery.
“We're spending around 6% of our GDP on our security at the moment. These amounts of money are needed in infrastructure and education, as any normal nation. But unfortunately, we have to pull more and more resources into our defense,” he said, adding: “This is very difficult and it's holding us back.”
