Oil Extends Rally on Russia Sanctions Bets, Stocks Wobble

Washington and other major economies have pledged to unleash millions of barrels from their stockpiles to keep a lid on prices. Brandon Bell GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File
Washington and other major economies have pledged to unleash millions of barrels from their stockpiles to keep a lid on prices. Brandon Bell GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File
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Oil Extends Rally on Russia Sanctions Bets, Stocks Wobble

Washington and other major economies have pledged to unleash millions of barrels from their stockpiles to keep a lid on prices. Brandon Bell GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File
Washington and other major economies have pledged to unleash millions of barrels from their stockpiles to keep a lid on prices. Brandon Bell GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File

Oil prices extended gains Tuesday on the prospect of further sanctions on Russia for alleged "atrocities" in some occupied Ukraine cities, while equities struggled to build on a rally in New York and Europe.

European Union officials were discussing new measures against Moscow after reports -- denied by the Kremlin -- that troops had executed civilians, AFP said.

Among the punishments could be a ban on imports of Russian crude, following a similar move by the United States and Britain.

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also signaled more US sanctions were on the way this week.

While Europe's economy relies heavily on energy from Russia, the possibility of an embargo sent both main contracts sharply higher Monday, and they continued their rise in Asia, putting on more than one percent.

That pared some of the sharp losses seen Friday in reaction to a pledge by Washington and other major economies to unleash millions of barrels from their stockpiles to keep a lid on prices, which are fanning already high inflation.

It also offset an expected hit to demand in China from lockdowns in parts of the country -- including Shanghai, the biggest city -- sparked by a wave of Omicron outbreaks.

The continued uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, and the blow to the global economy it is expected to deal, was unable to prevent another healthy performance on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq's surge led all three main indexes higher.

"Despite all the concerns, equities remain the best bet to achieve returns above today's elevated inflation," said markets strategist Louis Navellier.

However, trade was tepid in Asia, with Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taipei closed for holidays.

Tokyo, Sydney, Singapore, Jakarta and Wellington were slightly up, while Seoul and Manila dropped.

Traders will be keeping a close eye on the release this week of minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting, hoping for an insight into officials' thinking over monetary policy.

After last month's expected 0.25 percentage point interest rate hike, there are increasing bets on a half-point lift in May in light of soaring inflation and strong jobs data that suggest the economy remains robust enough to absorb higher borrowing costs.

And National Australia Bank's Tapas Strickland added: "Profit reporting season in the US kicks off next week and it will be interesting to see how firms are interpreting the tea leaves, and whether earnings guidance is revised down."

- Key figures around 0200 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 27,756.54

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: Closed for a holiday

Shanghai - Composite: Closed for a holiday

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.7 percent at $109.31 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.7 percent at $105.00 per barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0969 from $1.0978 late Monday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3117 from $1.3114

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.62 pence from 83.65 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 122.60 yen from 122.78 yen

New York - Dow: UP 0.3 percent at 34,921.88 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 7,558.92 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.