Turkey Caught in a Spiral of Lira Crises

A money changer holds Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey October 12, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer holds Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey October 12, 2021. (Reuters)
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Turkey Caught in a Spiral of Lira Crises

A money changer holds Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey October 12, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer holds Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey October 12, 2021. (Reuters)

Turkey's lira has lost nearly a quarter of its value this year as soaring inflation and the central bank's reluctance to raise interest rates stoke fears of another currency crisis.

No stranger to booms and busts as well as sharp swings in its currency, Turkey has long been considered among the riskier emerging markets, running large current-account deficits and relying on external financing to fuel unorthodox pro-growth policies.

Below are some lira flashpoints of recent decades:

2000/2001 - Banking & currency crisis

Concerns over the health of a fragile banking sector escalate in late 2000, prompting banks to close interbank lines to vulnerable lenders and investors to dump stocks and government bonds.

The collapse of Demir Bank accelerates capital flight, and the central bank halts emergency lines of credit to lenders to preserve its domestic assets.

Turkey receives $10.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund, allowing the central bank to defend the lira's dollar peg, but not before the currency plunges 25% in less than three weeks.

A political crisis further undermines confidence in the system, prompting an attack on the lira. The government lets the lira float on Feb. 22 - it sinks by about one-third against the dollar.

2013/2014 - Taper tantrum, corruption scandal

Turkey is among the emerging markets hit after Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke announces in May 2013 that the US central bank will reduce its asset purchases.

Domestic woes add to the pressure, with a corruption scandal forcing the resignation of key ministers and a cabinet reshuffle.

Policymakers are reluctant to act to stem the lira's fall as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ahead of local elections, calls for keeping interest rates low. The currency's slide forces the central bank's hand in January 2014: it hikes rates to 12% from 7.75% at an emergency overnight meeting.

2018 - Washington sanctions, Erdogan doubles down

Turkey experiences seismic political shifts with a July 2016 coup attempt and a constitutional referendum in 2017 that prompts a switch from a parliamentary to a presidential system.

In May 2018, Erdogan pledges tighter control of monetary policy and lower rates, contributing to concerns about economic fragility.

Washington imposes economic sanctions after Turkey detains American pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges, roiling the currency, with the lira dropping 25% in August alone.

The meltdown sparks an economic crisis, prompting a raft of sovereign ratings downgrades and sending ripples through emerging markets.

2021/2022 - Roaring inflation

The central bank slashes interest rates by 500 basis points between September and December 2021 even as inflation surges to 36% by year's end on supply chain snags and rising demand with the reopening after COVID-19.

The lira plunges nearly 30% in November, prompting policymakers to take steps to persuade savers, banks and companies to hold lira rather than foreign currency while the central bank intervenes to steady the lira.

After a few weeks of relative calm in early 2022, the lira crisis returns with Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine adding to global price rises. Turkey's inflation breaks above 70% and is expected to accelerate. Geopolitics adds pressure as Ankara opposes NATO membership for Sweden and Finland, and a border offensive into Syria looms.

With net foreign currency reserves deeply negative, interest rates at 14% and Erdogan pledging to keep rates low, analysts fear the country may be facing another currency crisis.



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
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Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
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IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.