CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
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CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)

China appears determined on using force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine affecting Beijing's calculations on how, not whether, to invade, the head of the CIA said Wednesday.

Appearing at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping could move on Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year, AFP said.

"The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get," Burns said.

Burns said that China was "unsettled" when looking at Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine, which he characterized as a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin as he had hoped to topple the Kyiv government within a week.

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Burns said.

He said that China is believed to have observed from Ukraine that "you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future," he said.

China also has likely learned that it has to "control the information space" and "do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions," he added.

Burns, in line with previous US assessments, said that the United States does not believe that Beijing is offering military support to Russia despite rhetorical backing.

He said China has stepped up purchases of Russian energy but appears careful about not incurring Western sanctions.

China considers self-ruled Taiwan part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

China's defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the mainland's civil war, but the island has since developed into a vibrant democracy and leading technological power.



Iran Says Seeks ‘Real and Fair’ Deal in Nuclear Talks with US

A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
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Iran Says Seeks ‘Real and Fair’ Deal in Nuclear Talks with US

A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
A man holds an anti-US banner during a rally in support of Gaza, in Tehran, Iran April 11, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran seeks a "real and fair" agreement with Washington on its nuclear program, a senior aide to supreme leader Ali Khamenei said Friday, setting the stage for a diplomatic showdown this weekend in Oman.

Longtime adversaries Iran and the United States are set to hold talks on Saturday aimed at reaching a deal on Tehran's nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump last month wrote to Khamenei urging negotiations, but warning of possible military action if Iran refuses.

"Far from putting up a show and merely talking in front of the cameras, Tehran is seeking a real and fair agreement, important and implementable proposals are ready," Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani posted on X.

He confirmed that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was heading to Oman "with full authority for indirect negotiations with America", adding that if Washington showed goodwill, the path forward would be "smooth".

Ahead of the talks, Trump reiterated that military action was "absolutely" possible if they failed.

Iran responded by saying Tehran could expel UN nuclear inspectors, prompting another US warning that this would be an "escalation".

Iran has consistently denied seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

On Friday, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran was "giving diplomacy a genuine chance in good faith and full vigilance".

"America should appreciate this decision, which was made despite their hostile rhetoric," he said.

- 'Stupid actions' -

The talks were first announced by Trump during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington.

He said they would be high-level and "direct", but Iran insisted they would be "indirect".

"The talks will be conducted indirectly through the exchange of texts," claimed Iran's Fars news agency, without naming a source.

Araghchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff are due to lead the talks in Oman, which has played a mediating role on the Iran nuclear issue.

Witkoff visited Iran's ally Russia on Friday for talks on Ukraine with President Vladimir Putin.

Expert-level consultations between Russia, China and Iran on nuclear issues were held in Moscow on Tuesday, Russia's foreign ministry said.

Iran has in recent months also been talking with the three European parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, Britain, France and Germany.

The 2015 accord saw sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program.

On Friday, the European Union cautioned that there was "no alternative to diplomacy" on the Iranian nuclear issue.

Germany urged both sides to reach a "diplomatic solution", calling it a "positive development that there is a channel for dialogue between Iran and the United States".

On Thursday, Washington imposed additional sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil network and nuclear program.

Iran's nuclear agency chief Mohammad Eslami downplayed their impact.

"They applied maximum pressure with various sanctions, but they were unable to prevent the country from progressing," he said.

"They still think that they can stop this nation and country with threats and intimidation, psychological operations, or stupid actions."

- 'Threats and intimidation' -

Iran has been in the spotlight since Trump returned to office, and its regional allies have suffered major setbacks.

Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have suffered heavy losses in conflicts with Israel sparked by the Palestinian group's October 2023 attack.

Since the Gaza war began, Iran and Israel have attacked each other directly for the first time.

Warning of military action against Iran should the talks fail, Trump said US ally Israel would "obviously be very much involved in that, be the leader of that".

Khamenei's adviser Shamkhani said such threats could prompt the expulsion of UN nuclear watchdog inspectors.

"Transfer of enriched materials to secure locations may also be considered," he added of Iran's uranium enrichment activities.

While the West wants to include Iran's ballistic missile program and regional influence in negotiations, Tehran maintains it will talk only about its nuclear program.

"If the American side does not raise irrelevant issues and demands and puts aside threats and intimidation, there is a good possibility of reaching an agreement," deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said.

Hardline Iranian media are skeptical about the talks.

The Kayhan newspaper warned that entering negotiations with the United States in a bid to lift sanctions was a "failed strategy".

During his first term, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping economic sanctions.

Tehran adhered to the deal for a year before rolling back its own commitments.