Lebanon’s Ordeal: From Civil Strife to Economic Collapse

A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)
A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)
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Lebanon’s Ordeal: From Civil Strife to Economic Collapse

A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)
A man sleeps in a car next to burning tires barricading the highway during ongoing anti-government protests at Nahr El Kalb, Lebanon November 13, 2019. (Reuters)

Lebanon marks the second anniversary on Thursday of the Beirut port explosion that killed 215 people and is widely seen as a symbol of corruption and bad governance by the sectarian ruling elite.

Here are some of the main crises over the past two decades in a country that has known little stability since the end of its 1975-90 civil war:

2005 Former premier Rafik al-Hariri is killed and 21 others die in a bomb attack on his motorcade in Beirut on Feb. 14.

Demonstrations erupt blaming the assassination on Syria, which deployed troops in Lebanon during the civil war and kept them there afterwards. Syria denies any role.

Syria's allies in Lebanon, who include the Iran-backed Hezbollah, stage rallies in support of Syria, but international pressure forces the troops out.

Three critics of Syria - Samir Kassir, Gebran Tueni, and George Hawi - are assassinated.

2006 In July, Hezbollah crosses the border into Israel, captures two Israeli soldiers and kills others, sparking a five-week war. At least 1,200 people in Lebanon and 158 Israelis are killed.

Tensions in Lebanon simmer over Hezbollah's arsenal.

In November, Hezbollah and its allies quit the cabinet led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and organize protests against it. Anti-Syria politician Pierre Gemayel is killed.

2007 Hezbollah and its allies maintain a sit-in protest against the Siniora government for the entire year. Anti-Syrian lawmakers Walid Eido and Antoine Ghanem are killed.

2008 A car bomb kills Wissam Eid, a police intelligence officer investigating the Hariri assassination, in January.

In May, the government outlaws Hezbollah's telecom network. Hezbollah calls this a declaration of war and its fighters take over mainly Muslim west Beirut. After mediation, rival leaders sign a deal in Qatar.

2011 A government led by Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, is toppled when Hezbollah and its allies quit due to disagreements over a UN-backed tribunal into the 2005 assassination.

2012 Hezbollah fighters deploy to Syria to aid President Bashar al-Assad in the country's war.

In October, a car bomb kills security official Wissam al-Hassan, whose intelligence service had arrested a pro-Syrian former minister charged with transporting Syrian-assembled bombs to wage attacks in Lebanon.

2013 A bomb kills ex-minister and Hariri advisor Mohamad Chatah.

2018 Hezbollah and allies win a majority in Lebanon's first parliamentary vote since 2009.

2019 Despite growing economic troubles, the government fails to enact reforms that might unlock foreign support.

In October, a decision to tax internet calls ignites mass cross-sectarian protests accusing the ruling elite of corruption and mismanagement.

Hariri quits on Oct. 29. The financial crisis accelerates. Banks largely freeze depositors out of dollar savings. The local currency begins to crash.

2020 Hassan Diab becomes prime minister in January, backed by Hezbollah and its allies.

Lebanon defaults on its sovereign debt in March. IMF talks flounder as ruling factions and banks object to a financial recovery plan.

On Aug. 4, a chemical explosion at Beirut port kills 215 people, wounds 6,000 and devastates swathes of Beirut. The Diab cabinet quits.

Hariri is designated to form a new government but cannot as parties squabble over portfolios.

A UN-backed tribunal convicts a Hezbollah member of conspiring to kill Rafik al-Hariri in 2005. Hezbollah denies any role.

2021 Poverty soars.

Hariri gives up trying to form a government, trading blame with President Michel Aoun.

In August, the central bank declares it can no longer subsidize fuel. Shortages trigger violence at filling stations.

In September, veteran politician Najib Mikati forms a government but it is paralyzed by tension over the probe into the port explosion.

Hezbollah and its ally Amal demand the removal of investigating judge after he charges some of their allies. The Shiite parties call a protest and six of their followers are shot dead when violence erupts. Hezbollah blames the Lebanese Forces (LF), the LF denies this.

The investigation stalls amid a flood of legal complaints against the judge by officials whom he has charged over the disaster.

In October, Gulf states recall their ambassadors and Saudi Arabia bans all Lebanese imports in protest at comments by a pro-Hezbollah minister that are offensive to Riyadh.

2022 In January, the pound touches a low of 34,000 against the dollar, losing more than 90% of its value since 2019. The World Bank accuses the ruling class of "orchestrating" one of the world's worst economic depressions.

Hariri declares he will not contest a parliamentary election.

In April, Lebanon reaches a draft IMF deal for a possible $3 billion in support, dependent on long-delayed reforms.

Gulf Arab ambassadors return, easing diplomatic tensions.

In May, Hezbollah and its allies lose their parliamentary majority in an election. But long-dominant parties maintain their grip, reappointing Shiite veteran politician Nabih Berri and naming Mikati to form a new government.

The outgoing government approves a financial recovery plan. But banks reject it and Hezbollah says a new one is needed.



What Might Happen in Israel’s Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
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What Might Happen in Israel’s Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)

Opposition party Yesh Atid has submitted a vote to dissolve the Israeli parliament, known as the Knesset, for June 11, amid rising tensions in the ruling right-wing coalition.

Here are some key facts about the Knesset, the procedure for a dissolution vote, which would lead to an election, and possible scenarios.

KNESSET COMPOSITION

Total seats: 120

Simple majority needed to pass the vote: 61

Current government majority: 8 seats

LEGISLATIVE PROCEDURE

The Yesh Atid motion faces four votes with an absolute majority of the Knesset required in the final stretch to become law, thereby bringing a premature end to the legislature and triggering an election, which must be held within five months of the motion passing.

In practice, if the initial vote passes, the subsequent stages could occur all the same day or take months.

OPPOSITION STRATEGY

A bill to dissolve parliament will only be brought to a vote if Yesh Atid is confident of securing a majority. If not, it can withdraw the motion anytime before June 11, preventing a vote.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

Ultra-Orthodox coalition parties could decide to leave the government to protest at its failure to put forward a law granting exemption from military service to ultra-Orthodox men. At the same time, they might refuse to vote for dissolution of parliament, allowing a minority government to continue.

COALITION NUMBERS

The coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a majority of around 68 seats in parliament, though its size has fluctuated due to internal political shifts.

The two coalition ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, hold 18 seats collectively. If they united with the opposition, they would have enough votes to dissolve parliament and trigger early elections a year ahead of schedule.